Famine Early Warning Systems Network

The Season A harvest was generally average, and both crops and agricultural income from Season B later this year are expected to be average. Although staple food prices are unusually high, with the Consumer Price Index for food and non-alcoholic beverages up 65 percent in January 2023 compared to same time last year, most poor households in rural areas will face no acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) during the projection period given favorable crop production and labor income. Parts of Eastern and Western Provinces are expected to realize below-average harvests, and income-earning opportunities from trading are lower than normal in Nyamasheke and Rusizi districts of Western Province amid conflict along the border with DRC. In these areas, some households will have lower access to food and income that results in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes throughout the projection period, though income from Season B agricultural labor will prevent greater deterioration.

In Kigali City, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected throughout the projection period as poor households have somewhat diverse income-earning opportunities as the economy recovers from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, a marginal decline in food prices following the Season A crop harvest is driving increased food access among poor households. However, given the relatively high official unemployment rate and the increased cost of living despite recent food price decreases, it is likely there are some poor urban households unable to meet their basic food and non-food needs and facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

UNHCR estimates 127,000 refugees and asylum seekers are in Rwanda, and it is expected they will remain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) throughout the projection period, with monthly food assistance preventing worse acute food insecurity. The DRC conflict is causing an increasing number of Congolese to seek refuge in western Rwanda, reducing labor and petty trade opportunities for populations living on the border. Many refugees and asylum seekers earn limited incomes from local employment and petty trading, and most depend on humanitarian food assistance to meet their daily food needs.