Rwanda

Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are anticipated throughout the country, driven by the availability of household food stocks from seasonal and interseason crops, stable income access from livestock sales, higher agricultural labor wage rates, and expanded employment and trade prospects in urban areas. In addition, improved cross-border trade and labor migration are further increasing income access and the availability of both food and non-food goods in markets. However, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to persist among refugees, with humanitarian assistance preventing worse food insecurity outcomes. 

In rural areas, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are sustained due to adequate stocks from the previous harvest, interseason crops, and enhanced income-earning opportunities. Additionally, humanitarian assistance from the government and partners is helping to maintain Minimal! (IPC Phase 1!) outcomes in Western Province, where a severe flash flood in May 2023 led to below-average Season B harvests. However, high and rising food prices continue limiting food access among rural poor households. Based on the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), September's rural food inflation rate rose by 6.7 percent compared to August 2023 and 34.5 percent annually due to depletion of food stocks and depreciation of the local currency against the USD. Food availability is expected to improve significantly by the end of the year, with the expected bumper Season A harvest supported by the anticipated above-average rainfall.

Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes will likely be sustained in Kigali City throughout the projection period, driven by stable food access as household purchasing power increased income opportunities from enhanced industrial activities linked to the progressive growth of the economy. Furthermore, improved cross-border trade with Uganda and Tanzania is stabilizing market supply, which, together with the removal of VAT on selected food items, continues to moderate food prices to some extent, enhancing access to food. Nevertheless, high and increasing food prices remain a key barrier to food access in urban areas for poor and very poor households. According to the September 2023 NISR report, monthly and annual food inflation rates in urban areas rose by about 10 and 30 percent, respectively, driven by reduced rural-urban food supplies, increased transportation costs due to a 10 percent fuel price rise, and a weak exchange rate against the USD that increased prices of imported items. 

Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to be sustained among the estimated 136,000 refugees and asylum seekers in Rwanda, with humanitarian assistance mitigating worse food security outcomes. Since November 2022, an influx of over 12,000 new asylum seekers have fled to Rwanda to escape conflict in eastern DRC, with over 1,000 asylees arriving in September 2023, putting further pressure on limited humanitarian assistance resources. Most refugees rely on humanitarian assistance for their monthly food needs. However, the UNHCR/WFP funding cuts starting in November 2023 are likely to contribute to the deterioration of food security outcomes among refugees, increasing the number of refugees facing food consumption gaps.