Rwanda

Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are anticipated throughout the country, driven by the availability of household food stocks from the average Season B harvest. Crop and livestock sales, higher agricultural labor wage rates, and expanded employment and trade prospects are increasing income access. In addition, improved cross-border trade and labor migration are further boosting income access and the availability of both food and non-food goods in the market. However, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to persist among refugees, with humanitarian assistance averting worse outcomes. The population facing Stressed outcomes is expected to increase during the primary October to December lean season due to limited food access as households deplete their own stocks and turn to food purchases amid elevated food prices.

In rural areas, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes persist due to sufficient household food stocks from an average Season B harvest and access to interseason crops. In localized areas in Western Province, where below-average harvests resulted from severe May flash floods, ongoing humanitarian assistance from the government and partners is maintaining Minimal! (IPC Phase 1!) outcomes. Moreover, increased income from crop and livestock sales, higher agricultural labor wages for land preparation, and stable food prices since June are bolstering household purchasing power, enhancing food access through market purchases. According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), July's rural food inflation rate remained steady compared to June. Nevertheless, food prices remain elevated, with an annual food inflation rate rise of 32 percent compared to July 2022.

In Kigali City, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected, driven by improved food access as household purchasing power strengthens due to increased income opportunities from industrial activities and steady food prices. Moreover, average Season B harvests and improved cross-border trade with Uganda and Tanzania are stabilizing market supply. The removal of VAT on selected food items has also helped stabilize food prices. According to the July 2023 NISR report, monthly food inflation rates in urban areas remained steady, but the annual inflation rate was approximately 23 percent, indicating the above-average food prices. Peak high food prices are anticipated during the October to December lean season due to reduced rural-urban food supply, likely leading to an increase in the population experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. However, the Stressed population will likely remain below 20 percent. 

Around 134,000 refugees and asylum seekers in Rwanda are expected to face Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. Although cash transfers were adjusted to mitigate the effect of rising food prices, ongoing increases in food costs are still eroding the impact of these transfers, especially during the upcoming lean season. Most refugees rely on humanitarian assistance for about half of their monthly food needs, supplemented by income from small trading and livelihood programs supported by UNHCR and other groups. Moreover, the ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to approximately 11,500 new Congolese refugees arriving since November 2022, while about 4,800 refugees have been resettled to third countries since January 2023.