Skip to main content

Food insecurity remains most severe in South Sudan and Yemen

  • Key Message Update
  • East Africa
  • September 2019
Food insecurity remains most severe in South Sudan and Yemen

Download the Report

  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Food insecurity remains most severe in South Sudan and Yemen, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are widespread. In South Sudan, 10,000 people in Yirol East county of Lakes state are in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) at the peak of the lean season. Slight improvements in food security are anticipated in the post-harvest period across most of the country; however, Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be likely if conflict were to prevent access to food sources or food assistance for a prolonged period. In Yemen, the recent escalation in conflict is causing new displacement, disrupting livelihood activities, and increasing the risk of restricted market and humanitarian access. Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be possible in a worst-case scenario where fighting significantly disrupts port operations and food imports or limits trade flows from the ports to interior markets for a prolonged period.

    • Across the Horn of Africa, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present in many pastoral and agropastoral areas, including southeastern and northeastern Ethiopia, most of Somalia, and northern and eastern Kenya. The June-August cereal harvests were below-average to failed, with cereal production estimated at 60 to 90 percent below average in Somalia and Kenya. In areas that receive June-September rainfall, significant crop recovery has been realized in northwestern Somalia, western Kenya, and Karamoja of Uganda, though cereal production is still likely to be below average. In Ethiopia, the rains have driven recovery of Meher crops, though localized flooding in parts of western Ethiopia have caused crop loss.

    • In Sudan, macroeconomic shocks continue to drive fuel shortages and significantly above-average food and non-food commodity prices, which is impacting household purchasing power and driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Food prices are two to more than three times the five-year average at the peak of the lean season. However, livestock prices have similarly increased to above-average levels, which is mitigating deterioration in the terms of trade for households dependent on livestock sales. In parts of Jebel Mara of Darfur and SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan, reduced food access is compounded by conflict that continues to lead to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.

    • According to the convergence of the NMME, IRI, and GHACOF seasonal forecast models, the October to December rains are expected to be average to above average across the greater Horn of Africa and across most of Burundi, Rwanda, and Uganda. Favorable rains are expected to enhance crop and livestock production activities and associated labor income, leading to broad gains in household food and milk availability. Although Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to endure in many areas of concern through at least November, food security outcomes are anticipated to begin to improve with the availability of the harvests in December and January.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

    Get the latest food security updates in your inbox Sign up for emails

    The information provided on this Website is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.

    Jump back to top