Key Message Update

Food insecurity remains most severe in South Sudan and Yemen

September 2019

August - September 2019

October 2019 - January 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET continues to monitor food security conditions in areas mapped in gray.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET continues to monitor food security conditions in areas mapped in gray.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Food insecurity remains most severe in South Sudan and Yemen, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are widespread. In South Sudan, 10,000 people in Yirol East county of Lakes state are in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) at the peak of the lean season. Slight improvements in food security are anticipated in the post-harvest period across most of the country; however, Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be likely if conflict were to prevent access to food sources or food assistance for a prolonged period. In Yemen, the recent escalation in conflict is causing new displacement, disrupting livelihood activities, and increasing the risk of restricted market and humanitarian access. Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be possible in a worst-case scenario where fighting significantly disrupts port operations and food imports or limits trade flows from the ports to interior markets for a prolonged period.

  • Across the Horn of Africa, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present in many pastoral and agropastoral areas, including southeastern and northeastern Ethiopia, most of Somalia, and northern and eastern Kenya. The June-August cereal harvests were below-average to failed, with cereal production estimated at 60 to 90 percent below average in Somalia and Kenya. In areas that receive June-September rainfall, significant crop recovery has been realized in northwestern Somalia, western Kenya, and Karamoja of Uganda, though cereal production is still likely to be below average. In Ethiopia, the rains have driven recovery of Meher crops, though localized flooding in parts of western Ethiopia have caused crop loss.

  • In Sudan, macroeconomic shocks continue to drive fuel shortages and significantly above-average food and non-food commodity prices, which is impacting household purchasing power and driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Food prices are two to more than three times the five-year average at the peak of the lean season. However, livestock prices have similarly increased to above-average levels, which is mitigating deterioration in the terms of trade for households dependent on livestock sales. In parts of Jebel Mara of Darfur and SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan, reduced food access is compounded by conflict that continues to lead to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.

  • According to the convergence of the NMME, IRI, and GHACOF seasonal forecast models, the October to December rains are expected to be average to above average across the greater Horn of Africa and across most of Burundi, Rwanda, and Uganda. Favorable rains are expected to enhance crop and livestock production activities and associated labor income, leading to broad gains in household food and milk availability. Although Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to endure in many areas of concern through at least November, food security outcomes are anticipated to begin to improve with the availability of the harvests in December and January.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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