Key Message Update

Severe to extreme food insecurity persists due to conflict, drought, and other shocks

October 2021

September 2021

October 2021 - January 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Outcomes may be worse than mapped, but available evidence is insufficient to confirm or deny
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET continues to monitor food security conditions in areas mapped in grey. South Sudan remains of high concern for FEWS NET.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Outcomes may be worse than mapped, but available evidence is insufficient to confirm or deny
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Outcomes may be worse than mapped, but available evidence is insufficient to confirm or deny
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET continues to monitor food security conditions in areas mapped in grey. South Sudan remains of high concern for FEWS NET.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Severe to extreme acute food insecurity outcomes persist in Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Yemen, driven primarily by conflict and exacerbated by concurrent weather or macroeconomic shocks. Northern Ethiopia remains the area of highest concern, where conflict has displaced millions of people, key supply routes are significantly disrupted, and many people have little to no access to food or income sources. Moreover, humanitarian access for food assistance delivery is very limited. Most of Tigray, parts of Amhara, and parts of Afar face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes with households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), and high levels of acute malnutrition and mortality are likely occurring. In Tigray, worse outcomes are possible, but the available evidence is insufficient to confirm. 

  • In addition to northern Ethiopia, the severity of acute food insecurity is expected to remain high in South Sudan, Sudan, and Yemen into early 2022. In South Sudan, political and intercommunal conflict and a third consecutive year of severe floods are expected to sustain Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes throughout the 2021 harvest period. In Sudan, rising insecurity and conflict in Darfur, South Kordofan, and parts of the White Nile, coupled with flooding in eastern and central Sudan, will similarly sustain Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during the 2021 harvest period. In Yemen, protracted conflict – including an escalation of conflict in and around Marib – large-scale displacement, and rapid food and fuel price increases are also leading to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes, with the worst-affected households likely to experience Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). 

  • Southern and southeastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, and Somalia face a third consecutive below-average rainfall season from October to December, and long-range forecasts suggest the March to May 2022 season will also be below average. This scenario is highly likely to result in a four-season drought, which would worsen food insecurity through at least mid-2022. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are expected to become widespread in these areas, marked by below-average harvests, water and pasture shortages, increased livestock mortality, and above-average food prices. Poor 2021 rainfall is also a driving factor of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the Karamoja sub-region of Uganda, where the next rainfall season will not occur until April 2022.

  • The impacts of conflict and drought on market supply, coupled with macroeconomic shocks such as depleted foreign exchange reserves and local currency depreciation, resulted in above-average prices for staple foods, fuel, and other commodities in several countries in August. Many households already have insufficient food stocks and income-generating opportunities, and high prices have further constrained household purchasing power and access to food. In Ethiopia, for example, the annual inflation rate reached 30.4 percent, the highest rate recorded in a decade. Riverine areas of southern Somalia saw a 20-50 percent decline in the amount of cereal that a laborer could purchase with a day’s wage compared to the August five-year average. Meanwhile, staple cereal prices were 500-600 percent above average in Sudan and 190 percent above average in Juba, South Sudan. Similarly, in Yemen, the cost of the minimum food basket rose 62 percent compared to the same time last year.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics