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Sustained assistance needed in Somalia, Ethiopia where below-average Deyr rains are forecast

  • Key Message Update
  • East Africa
  • October 2017
Sustained assistance needed in Somalia, Ethiopia where below-average Deyr rains are forecast

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • In Somalia, an estimated 2.34 million people are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 802,000 in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through December 2017. However, food security may deteriorate further, as the Deyr (October to December) season is now forecast to be below average, while the above projections were based on a forecast for rainfall to be average tending to below average. A risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) still exists through at least early 2018 and continued, large-scale humanitarian assistance is needed to prevent the loss of life and livelihoods.

    • In southeastern Ethiopia, a further deterioration in food security is also possible given the updated forecasts for a below-average Deyr (October to December) season. Many households in Dollo, Korahe, Afder, and Jarar Zones are already in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) after two consecutive poor seasons that limited access to food and income, accelerated asset depletion, and have resulted in large food consumption gaps. Sustained delivery of humanitarian assistance is required to prevent households from facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) acute food insecurity.  

    • Despite the ongoing harvest, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes continue in many areas of South Sudan, and some households are currently in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Outcomes are expected to remain extreme and could further deteriorate in some areas by April 2018, when food sources are even more limited. There is a high level of concern for all regions in South Sudan, and a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists. 

    • In Yemen, humanitarian assistance delivered by WFP to an estimated 7 million people in August likely continued to reducing the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes in Yemen. However, food insecurity could deteriorate to Famine (IPC Phase 5) for some populations in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) if conflict increases and cuts off commercial imports, trade, and humanitarian assistance. The ongoing cholera outbreak further threatens to increase acute malnutrition and mortality, especially among those populations also facing significant food consumption gaps. 

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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