Large-scale emergencies continue in Yemen, South Sudan, and the Horn of Africa

Conflict in Yemen continues to be the primary driver of the largest food security emergency in the world. Currently, large populations face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity, the latter of which is associated with an increased risk of excess mortality. In a worst-case scenario, significant declines in commercial imports below requirement levels and conflict that cuts populations off from trade and humanitarian assistance for an extended period of time could drive food security outcomes in line with Famine (IPC Phase 5).

The Gu/Genna/long rains in the Horn of Africa have performed very poorly for much of the season, limiting improvements in pastoral and agropastoral conditions following drought in 2016. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in large parts of Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia between June and September 2017, and large areas of Kenya will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In Somalia, an elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) remains due to a combination of severe food consumption gaps, high acute malnutrition, high disease burden, and reliance on humanitarian assistance. 

Extreme levels of acute food insecurity persist in South Sudan. Consistent high rates of displacement and ongoing conflict are disrupting first season cultivation in Greater Equatoria and are likely to interfere with upcoming main season cultivation in Jonglei, Western Bahr el Ghazal, Unity, and Upper Nile States. The forthcoming IPC Acute Analysis will provide additional analysis on expected food security outcomes. 

In some SPLM-N-controlled areas of South Kordofan and in parts of Jebel Marra in Darfur, acute food insecurity is expected to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through September 2017, particularly among recent IDPs and poor households. A combination of poor or missed agricultural seasons in 2016, restricted trade and access to markets, and limited humanitarian assistance in SPLM-N-controlled areas is contributing to very poor household food access leading to increasing food consumption gaps.