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Drought, conflict, and macroeconomic shocks drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes

  • Key Message Update
  • East Africa
  • June 2019
Drought, conflict, and macroeconomic shocks drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in Yemen and South Sudan, and there remains a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in both countries. In South Sudan, food security deteriorated in May with the exhaustion of household food stocks, increased staple food prices, and low access to milk. In Yemen, conflict shifted to northern and southern areas of the country (Hajjah, Tai’zz, Sa’ada, Ad Dali), disrupting trade from Aden Port to the North; at the same time, a slowdown in fuel imports led to fuel price volatility. Humanitarian food assistance continues to mitigate worse outcomes in areas where Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) exists, but lower-than-anticipated deliveries in South Sudan in April resulted in deterioration from Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in several counties of Greater Upper Nile and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. Further, Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) is likely among households in Panyikang of Upper Nile and Canal/Pigi of Jonglei in South Sudan.

    • Although rainfall performance improved mid-May to early June, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are expected due to the impact of drought conditions in the Horn of Africa and northeastern Uganda. Poor households have food consumption gaps resulting from constrained access to food and income sources, especially in the lowlands of Amhara and Oromia and Somali region of Ethiopia; eastern and northern pastoral and marginal agricultural areas of Kenya; north-central pastoral and several agropastoral areas of Somalia; and Karamoja of Uganda. In Somalia, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is likely in several areas of concern. Rising food prices, reduced livestock holdings, and below-average agricultural labor demand is eroding household income and purchasing power for market-dependent households, causing substantial deterioration in household food security.

    • Political instability and social unrest continue to drive deterioration in food security in Sudan and parts of Ethiopia. Restricted movement, limited access to food and income sources, below-average crop production, and poor macroeconomic conditions have led to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in parts of the Red Sea, Kassala, Al Gadarif, Blue Nile, West Kordofan, North Kordofan, South Kordofan, and Greater Darfur of Sudan. IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan and SPLA-AW controlled areas of Jebel Marra are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the August-September peak of the lean season since they remain unable to access food assistance. In Ethiopia, some displaced households in Oromia and Amhara are returning home, but Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is still expected among those that are still displaced in Gedeo of SNNPR.

    • According to a convergence of the NMME, IRI, and GeoCOF seasonal forecasts, near-average rainfall is now most likely during the June-September season in East Africa’s northern and eastern sectors. This is the main production season in South Sudan, Sudan, western Kenya, and Karamoja sub-region of Uganda, and an important secondary season in western Ethiopia and northwestern Somalia. However, higher than average land surfaces temperatures are forecast in the July-September dry season in pastoral and agropastoral areas of Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, northern Sudan, and Yemen, which could stagnate or reverse recent gains in pasture, browse, and water. This coincides with the lean season in most affected areas.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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