La Niña in 2016 could suppress rainfall over the Horn of Africa in the latter half of the year

Below-average rainfall between March and May is leading to the expectation for below normal agricultural production in some areas of southern Ethiopia, southern and central Somalia, northwestern and eastern Kenya, and northeastern Tanzania. Furthermore, reduced livestock production and early migration are expected. Additionally, the high likelihood of a La Niña in 2016 could contribute to well below-average rainfall in the latter half of the year in many of these same areas of the Horn of Africa.

Although the June to September Kiremt rains have started, after mixed February to May Belg performance, large populations in central and eastern Ethiopia continue to require emergency food assistance. Worst-affected pastoral and agricultural households are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity as they face larger gaps in their basic food needs.

Households in Greater Upper Nile, whose lives and livelihoods were significantly impacted by the protracted conflict, continue to face significant difficulty meeting their basic food needs. Market access also continues to remain severely restricted for many across the country due to persistently high staple food prices. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity is present in worst-affected areas of Greater Upper Nile and Northern Bahr el Ghazal.

Conflict in both Sudan and Yemen continues to severely restrict household food access. In addition to leading to the loss of lives and creating high levels of displacement, conflict in both countries is contributing to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity for the many who face great difficulty meeting their basic food needs.