Conflict, insecurity, and displacement driving food insecurity

Conflict, insecurity, and displacement are driving worsening food security outcomes in several East African countries and in Yemen. Over the past two months, the rate of displacement from the Greater Upper Nile (GUN) States in South Sudan, from Burundi, and from Yemen has accelerated. Displacement also continues in Darfur and South Kordofan in Sudan and from South-Central Somalia. Many displaced households are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4). 

At least 13.1 million people currently need urgent humanitarian assistance in South Sudan, Sudan, and Yemen. Many of these people are food insecure due to the effects of conflict, including declines in trade and high food prices. Among the areas of highest need include the Greater Upper Nile (GUN) States in South Sudan, southern Yemen, Darfur and South Kordofan States in Sudan, and areas in East Africa hosting refugees and asylum seekers from Burundi. 

Green and dry harvests are increasing household and market stocks in some areas of southwestern and southeastern Kenya, eastern and western Uganda, southern Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi. However, ongoing or the most recent harvests have been well below average in other areas. Among the areas where low agricultural production has or is likely to lead to acute food insecurity include Belg-producing areas in central Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region (SNNPR) and northeastern Amhara, the lowlands of the Tekeze River catchment in northern Amhara, and the lowlands of eastern Oromia in Ethiopia, Hiraan Agropastoral and Southern Agropastoral livelihood zone in Middle Juba in southern Somalia, the central Rift Valley in Tanzania, and Karamoja in northeastern Uganda. Many poor households in these areas may move into or remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between now and September.

Low March to May rainfall did not lead to a full regeneration of pasture and browse, or a typical increase in water availability in northeastern and southern Afar in Ethiopia, some localized areas in northern Somalia, the southern lowlands of Borena Zone in Ethiopia, parts of Wajir and Isiolo Counties in eastern Kenya, and Obock Region and southeastern Djibouti. Livestock body conditions remain poorer than usual, and milk production remains lower than usual. Many poor pastoralists have limited purchasing power due to low livestock holdings and low livestock-to-cereal terms of trade. In many of these areas, poor pastoral households are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September.