Large-scale humanitarian assistance needs anticipated in 2019

Large-scale humanitarian assistance needs are expected in South Sudan and Yemen throughout 2019. Approximately 6.1 million people in South Sudan and 17 million in Yemen are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. In Yemen, Sa’ada and Hajjah governorates are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and of the remaining governorates in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), six would be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the absence of ongoing assistance. In South Sudan, areas of greatest concern remain Greater Upper Nile, Greater Equatoria, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, central Unity, and Jonglei, where extreme needs will likely persist even in the event of a significant reduction in conflict following the September 2018 peace agreement. Should there be an increase in conflict or should humanitarian assistance fail to materialize in either country, the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be likely.

Severe macroeconomic shocks have resulted in sharp depreciation in the local currency and extremely high food and non-food commodity prices in Sudan and South Sudan. Food prices in Sudan are currently 150-200 percent above the five-year average and are projected to be 200-250 percent above average during the upcoming lean season. In South Sudan, maize prices are 115 percent above the five-year average in Torit, Eastern Equatoria, and projected to rise to 150 percent above average at the peak of the lean season. High food prices have led to deterioration in household purchasing capacity, narrowed terms of trade, and reduced access to food commodities. Household food gaps for poor households have expanded, increasing populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and above.

More households are likely to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in pastoral areas following the below-average Deyr/short rains season (October-December 2018) in Somalia and Kenya and an unusually harsh dry season in Karamoja, Uganda. Unseasonable showers during January in parts of the eastern Horn have had limited impact on rangeland resources and moisture-stressed crops. Food production is likely to be 30-40 percent below average in agropastoral areas in northwestern and central Somalia and in Kenya’s southeastern marginal agricultural areas. Parts of Karamoja and Somalia’s Northern Inland Pastoral and Guban livelihood zones are currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4).