Conflict and drought continue to drive very high assistance needs in East Africa

Conflict and drought remain the key drivers of extreme levels of acute food insecurity in the region, leading up to 35 million people to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes and require assistance by May 2018. As of December 2017, three countries (Somalia, Yemen, and South Sudan) face a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in 2018 in their respective worst-case scenarios and in the absence of assistance. Meanwhile, food security among households in southeastern Ethiopia may begin to deteriorate to Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

Performance of October to December Deyr 2017 seasonal rainfall was mixed in the Horn of Africa, with many areas of southeastern Ethiopia, northern Kenya, and central Somalia receiving above average total rainfall, while rainfall was below average in southeastern Kenya, parts of northern Somali Region of Ethiopia, and southern and northern Somalia. Forecasts suggest rainfall during the upcoming Gu 2018 season will be below average across much of the Horn of Africa. 

In Yemen, the Saudi-led coalition has announced a one-month extension to the re-opening of the Red Sea ports to commercial traffic and has pledged $1.5 billion in humanitarian funding. Continued flows of essential commodities through these ports is critically needed in order to mitigate the risk of Famine in Yemen in 2018.