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Conflict drives severe food insecurity in South Sudan and Yemen; early season rainfall poor in the Horn of Africa

  • Key Message Update
  • East Africa
  • April 2017
Conflict drives severe food insecurity in South Sudan and Yemen; early season rainfall poor in the Horn of Africa

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • In South Sudan, it is likely Famine (IPC Phase 5) remains ongoing in Leer and is possibly ongoing in Koch. It is expected that ongoing, large-scale humanitarian assistance in Mayendit continues to prevent the occurrence of Famine (IPC Phase 5), and as a result this county remains in Emergency (IPC Phase 4!). Results from a recent SMART survey in Panyijiar indicate Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist. 

    • Yemen continues to face the largest food security emergency in the world, with large populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity, the latter of which is associated with an increased risk of excess mortality. IDP populations and poor households in conflict zones are likely facing the most severe food security outcomes. In a worst-case scenario in which commercial imports of staple foods decline significantly below requirement levels or conflict cuts off populations from trade and humanitarian assistance for an extended period of time, outcomes in line with Famine (IPC Phase 5) are possible. 

    • The Gu/long rains have started very poorly across many pastoral and agropastoral areas of the Horn of Africa, with large numbers of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, and northern Kenya. In Somalia, in a worst-case scenario in which the April to June Gu season performs very poorly, purchasing capacity declines to levels seen in 2010/11, and humanitarian assistance is unable to reach populations in need, Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be likely in the worst-affected areas of Bay, Bakool, and Northern Inland Pastoral.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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