Persistent food insecurity in pastoral areas ahead of below-average short rains season

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In September, the peak of the pastoral lean season, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing in Turkana, Marsabit, and Mandera, and are expected to expand to Garissa, Tana River, and Wajir in October, and persist through January. Households continue to face constrained incomes amid elevated staple food prices and the anticipated negative impacts of the forecasted below-average October-December short rains. Despite average to above-average purchasing capacity, below-average livestock holdings are limiting sales and constraining income for food. Above-average temperatures are accelerating rangeland resource deterioration, driving worsening body conditions and productivity. Household milk availability is declining across pastoral areas and is below average in Turkana due to atypically early livestock migrations in August. Slightly improved food access is expected between November and early December, driven by seasonal increases in household milk availability and sales. The prevalence of acute malnutrition remains Critical (GAM WHZ 15-29.9 percent or MUAC 10-14.9 percent) in Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera and Garissa, exacerbated by limited outreach services and humanitarian funding gaps.
Across marginal agricultural areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to continue through January, driven by declining household food stocks from below-average long rains harvests and reduced incomes. Agricultural labor opportunities, such as the ongoing land clearing and preparation for the upcoming October–December short rains season and off-own-farm income opportunities, are providing income to poor households. However, such opportunities will likely be below-average given the forecasted below-average rains. As of September, household food stocks were depleted for most households in Lamu, Kitui, and Makueni, driving atypically early market dependence. With limited purchasing power and high staple food prices, poor households are likely to increasingly rely on consumption and livelihood coping strategies to meet their minimum food needs, such as consuming less preferred and less expensive foods, spending household savings on food, selling non-productive assets, borrowing money, and buying food on credit.
As of August, maize prices were generally average to above average, driven by elevated demand for both food and livestock feed amid tight supply. The retail price in marginal agricultural areas ranged from average to 14 percent above average, except for Kwale where the price was 29 percent below average due to a localized favorable harvest. In pastoral areas, maize prices ranged from near-average to 31 percent above average, driven by the elevated demand during the pastoral lean season and, in remote areas, higher transportation costs. The gradual availability of the favorable unimodal production from October onwards, coupled with cross-border imports from Uganda and Tanzania, is expected to progressively moderate prices, albeit at above-average levels due to sustained high demand. Dry bean prices were 9-23 percent above average in marginal agricultural areas, driven by sustained high demand amid a below-average long rains production (extending also to bean substitutes such as green grams and cowpeas).
Starting in August, the WFP began implementing a differentiated food assistance approach in Kakuma, Dadaab, and Kalobeyei refugee camps, categorizing refugees into four groups based on vulnerability. Categories 1 and 2 received 40 and 20 percent food rations, respectively, while Categories 3 and 4 received no food rations. This targeted food assistance triggered protests in Kakuma and Kalobeyei camps, and a spike in the number of refugees returning to South Sudan in August (returnee numbers as high as 220 per day). Cash transfer payments to vulnerable households enrolled in the government-funded Hunger Safety Net Program have not reliably followed the official disbursement schedule, limiting food access for beneficiary households and increasing the risk of eroding livelihood assets.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Kenya Key Message Update September 2025: Persistent food insecurity in pastoral areas ahead of below-average short rains season, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.