Download the report
- The current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the flood-affected riverine areas of Garissa and Tana River counties are likely to continue through January 2025 as households continue to rely on both consumption and livelihood-based coping strategies to meet minimum food requirements. The affected households in Garissa were unable to replant crops due to the costly repairs to their farms and irrigation equipment. Similarly, few households along the riverine areas of Tana River were able to replant after the floods and are experiencing significantly below-average harvests due to the low area replanted and constrained access to seeds and other inputs. The harvests, which are expected to only last around one month, are unlikely to support minimum food requirements, provide income for non-food needs, and offset debts incurred during the floods.
- Widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist across pastoral areas, with the worst drought-affected households in Turkana and Marsabit continuing to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January. Livestock body conditions and productivity remain positive, driven by average to above-average vegetation conditions and average water availability, maintaining improved household milk availability and incomes from milk sales, and exceptionally high livestock sale values. The availability of water resources in Garissa has declined, resulting in above-average trekking distances for both households and livestock. Although goat-to-maize terms of trade are above five-year averages, household access to food and income continues to be limited by below-average livestock sales due to below-average herd sizes and above-average staple food prices.
- Across marginal agricultural areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist, driven by declining household food stocks from the below-average long rains production and below-average incomes limiting household access to food. Household reliance on market purchases is gradually increasing as household purchasing power and access to food continue to be limited by below-average incomes from below-average crop sales. However, the ongoing land clearing and preparation for the October to December short rains production is providing near-average incomes, mitigating some household income deficits.
- According to global forecasts, the current ENSO state is neutral with a transition to La Nina as the most likely state in October, and is forecast to continue through January. The March to August rains in the unimodal areas of Kenya have been average to slightly above average. Consequently, below-average October to December short rains is most likely in northern and eastern Kenya, coupled with above-average surface temperatures across the country. In marginal agricultural areas, the below-average short rains are likely to lower crop production during the main cropping season, decreasing incomes from agriculture-related labor opportunities. The recovery of rangeland resources in pastoral areas is likely to be low with an earlier-than-normal depletion expected in late December to early January.
- In August, maize prices ranged from average to around 30 percent below the five-year average in most areas, driven by the availability of the March to May long rains production, 2023 unimodal production from the North Rift and Western Kenya, and above-average cross-border imports from Uganda and Tanzania. However, maize prices were 10 to 36 percent above the five-year averages in the pastoral areas of Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Lamu, and in coastal marginal agricultural areas due to increased demand following the April to May flooding and high marketing costs. The prices of dry beans were mixed due to high local demand and declining local supply but were moderated by cross-border imports from Tanzania. In most markets, dry bean prices were average to 26 percent above the five-year averages except in Meru, Kilifi, and Eldoret, where the prices were 17 percent to 27 percent below the five-year averages due to the availability of local long rains production.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Kenya Key Message Update September 2024: Drought recovery from previous above-average seasons cushions households during the lean season, 2024.
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.