Exceptionally poor short rains are worsening the severity of food insecurity

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The October to December short rains season has been characterized by late onset and extremely low rainfall. Observed and forecast data indicate rainfall totals to be 30-60 percent of average across most of the country through early December. The season ranks as the driest on record across much of the eastern part of the country. Surface temperatures have consistently been around 1-2 degrees Celsius above average this season, and are forecast to remain elevated through February 2026. This is driving atypically high evaporation and exacerbating the dry conditions.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are spreading across pastoral areas, driven by poor livestock productivity and limited capacity to conduct sales for income to purchase food. Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, and Tana River counties are projected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by January, and Samburu and Isiolo by May. The anomalous significantly below-average short rains have severely limited the regeneration of rangeland resources, as indicated by the latest eVIIRS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data. Recharge of open water sources remains minimal. The majority of water points in the north and east are currently classified as “near-dry” or “alert” status during what is typically the peak of the short rains, sustaining an atypically high reliance on boreholes and shallow wells. The constrained availability of rangeland resources continues to suppress improvements in livestock body conditions and productivity, progressively lowering milk production and limiting household milk consumption and sales. Additionally, household income from livestock sales remains below average due to atypically low herd sizes, despite prices ranging from near average to 53 percent above average.
The poor regeneration of forage and water in the pastoral areas is driving pastoralists to prolong their stay in dry season grazing areas away from households, reducing households' access to milk. Recent reports indicate atypical livestock movements, including migrations from Garissa into Tana River, Wajir, and the northern parts of Isiolo. As above-average temperatures accelerate rangeland resource depletion, migrations are expected to intensify – including into atypical areas such as the southeast marginal agricultural areas – heightening the likelihood of resource-based conflicts in hotspot areas in Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Baringo, Tana River, Kitui, and Tharaka Nithi.
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist across the marginal agricultural areas, as atypically low household food stocks drive elevated market dependence amid high prices and declining income-earning opportunities. The poor rains have hindered crop development and are expected to drive a significantly below-average harvest (the third consecutive below-average harvest in southeastern areas such as Kitui). Limited agricultural labor opportunities and minimal crop sales from the below-average long rains production continue to widen income gaps. Households are atypically increasing reliance on off-own-farm activities, such as charcoal production, which are insufficient to close income gaps. Faced with constrained purchasing capacities and limited food access, poor households are increasingly relying on consumption-based coping strategies (such as consuming less preferred and less expensive foods) and livelihood coping strategies (such as spending household savings on food and selling non-productive assets). In Kitui, Makueni, and Lamu, significantly below-average harvests will be insufficient to replenish household food stocks meaningfully. With diminishing income-earning opportunities after the season’s end in February, households will resort to unsustainable use of livelihood assets to meet minimum food needs, deteriorating to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes between February and May.
In October, staple food prices ranged from average to above average, driven by atypically high demand, below-average long rains production in most of the marginal agricultural areas, and increased transportation costs due to elevated fuel prices. In the major urban markets, maize prices were average in Nairobi and Kisumu but 13 percent above average in Eldoret due to increased competition between traders, millers, and the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB), with traders offering prices above the 3,500 KES per 90 kilogram (kg) bag offered by NCPB. Prices were near the five-year average in most marginal agricultural areas, except in Lamu, Makueni, and Kitui, where prices were 10-22 percent above the five-year average following below-average long rains production. In most pastoral areas maize prices were 8-12 percent above the five-year average in October, except in Turkana, Isiolo, and Samburu where prices were near average. Although the above-average unimodal production from the high- and medium-potential areas of the North Rift and Western Kenya is expected to moderate prices, atypically high demand is likely to sustain elevated prices.
Funding shortfalls continue to constrain life-saving humanitarian assistance programs among poor households in the pastoral areas amid worsening food insecurity. Most humanitarian agencies have scaled down or completely ended life-saving assistance programs. However, 10,750 poor households in Marsabit and Wajir are receiving unconditional cash transfers of 70 USD per household for September-November through WFP, in partnership with the government under the Anticipatory Action Plan to mitigate the impacts of the anticipated drought. In addition, households with pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls and children under two years will receive monthly cash top-ups of 7 USD. Although around 133,800 poor households in Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, and Isiolo counties are receiving cash transfers of 2,700 KES per household per month under the government’s Hunger Safety Net Program (HSNP), recent delays in disbursements are creating concerns for beneficiaries’ food access.
In Kakuma, Dadaab, and Kalobeyei refugee camps, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes persist as humanitarian assistance continues to prevent worse outcomes. Starting in October, the WFP scaled up its Differentiated Food Assistance program in the refugee camps, increasing in-kind food rations from 40 to 55 percent of the Minimum Food Basket for refugee households in Category 1 (highly vulnerable) and from 20 to 35 percent for households in Category 2 (households with limited ability to meet basic needs). In addition, WFP introduced a 20 percent ration for Category 3 households (partially self-reliant households), which previously did not receive assistance since the suspension of cash-based assistance in June and adjustments to in-kind food rations in July. Latest reports indicate that the rations during December 2025 to March 2026 are likely to be increased to 60 percent and 40 percent for households in Categories 1 and 2, respectively, and maintained at 20 percent for households in Category 3.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Kenya Key Message Update November 2025: Exceptionally poor short rains are worsening the severity of food insecurity, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.