Long rains ease conditions but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral areas

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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist across pastoral areas through September, as limited income and elevated staple food prices drive food consumption gaps and unsustainable coping. Below-average herd sizes continue to limit household milk availability and sales despite seasonal improvements in livestock body conditions and productivity during the March-May long rains. Rangeland resources are expected to deteriorate during the June-September dry season, leading to declines in livestock body conditions, productivity, and prices. Beginning in August, limited forage and water will drive livestock migration to dry season grazing areas, reducing household access to milk and income from sales. Declining income and elevated food prices will further constrain already-limited purchasing capacity and food access, and sustain consumption gaps and reliance on coping strategies, such as reduced spending on health and veterinary services through September.
In Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps and Kalobeyei settlement, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected to persist through September, contingent on continued humanitarian food assistance at current levels. The lack of access to land for own food production and restrictions on employment continue to severely limit income-earning opportunities amid reduced humanitarian food assistance since 2025. In April, WFP provided in-kind assistance to over 547,000 refugees across the three areas (about 75 percent of the settlements’ total population), covering 80 percent of minimum food needs for Category 1 households, and 60 and 20 percent for Categories 2 and 3, respectively.
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in marginal agricultural areas through September. Long‑rains harvests of pulses and agricultural labor opportunities are enabling most households to meet their minimum food, but not non-food, needs. Anticipated maize and sorghum harvests in June-July are expected to enhance household food availability, reduce reliance on markets, and generate income from sales through September. Nevertheless, the capacity of households to meet essential non-food needs will remain restricted due to high debt levels from previous successive poor seasons, compelling use of stress-coping strategies to cover non-food expenditures.
The March-May long rains exceeded 105 percent of average as of May 25, except in central parts of the country (including Samburu and Laikipia) and coastal areas of Lamu, Kwale, and Taita Taveta. Despite overall favorable rain amounts, temporal distribution has been uneven, with most areas receiving below-average rainfall in April and early May, the typical seasonal peak. Ensemble forecasts indicate below-average rainfall between June and September in the unimodal areas of the North Rift and western Kenya, due to El Niño conditions expected to emerge between May and July.
Recovery of pasture, browse, and water resources across pastoral areas is supporting livestock body condition and productivity improvements. As of May 20, vegetation greenness exceeded 105 percent of the long-term mean in most pastoral areas. Livestock trekking distances from watering points to grazing areas are below average, except in Garissa, Mandera, and Wajir where they are slightly above average. Body conditions are average, except in Mandera where they remain below average, while milk production has improved to near-average levels. However, conditions are expected to begin to decline atypically quickly beginning in June with the start of the dry season when temperatures are forecast at 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius above average. Elevated livestock disease prevalence has been reported amid reduced funding for vaccination programs.
Crop conditions are mixed but largely favorable countrywide, supported by above-average rainfall. Pulse harvests began several weeks early in May across most of the bimodal areas in coastal, southeast, southwest, and western Kenya. The early harvests were enabled by the early rainfall onset in mid-February, rather than mid-March. However, below-average production of cereals is likely in pockets of Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu, and Makueni due to uneven temporal rainfall distribution. In the unimodal areas of the North Rift and western Kenya, bean and maize crops are in good condition. However, the forecast below average June-September rainfall raises risk of reduced production levels at the end of the season.
Livestock prices are rising and remain above average across most pastoral areas, driven by improvements in body conditions and reduced supply as households minimize sales to rebuild their herds. In April, the price of a mature medium-sized goat was 22-61 percent above the five-year average in most areas, while in Mandera and Wajir, prices have gradually increased to near-average levels.
The conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt fuel supply, driving domestic price increases. Prices of diesel and gasoline (petrol) increased by 8 and 18 percent, respectively, between April and May. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the cost of transport and food prices increased by 6.1 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively, over the month, while annual inflation increased to 6.7 percent (from 5.6 percent in April).
Staple food prices remain elevated due to seasonally declining household stocks amid elevated local demand, high market reliance, and high cost of transport. Countrywide, maize prices in April were 6-21 percent above the five-year average, except in Kilifi, Mandera, and Marsabit (average) and Nyeri (6 percent below average). Bean prices were also elevated, ranging from 8-17 percent above the five-year average in most areas, except in Kilifi (near average) and Nyeri (7 percent below average).

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Kenya Key Message Update May - September 2026: Long rains ease conditions but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral areas, 2026.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.