High food prices and ongoing drought impacts continue to drive food insecurity as long rains begin

• A good start to the March to May long rains is welcome relief following five consecutive below-average rainy seasons. Through March 25, rainfall across most of western, central, northern, and northeastern Kenya cumulative rainfall is largely over 150 percent of the 40-year average. However, rainfall is yet to start in southern and southeast Kenya. The relatively good start to the rainy season across most of Kenya is beginning to replenish water sources, support forage regeneration, and support land preparation and planting for the March to May long rains season.

• In the pastoral areas, water resources are yet to recharge and remain below average, with households and livestock traveling up to 85 and 65 percent longer distances than the three-year average. Similarly, vegetation remains well below normal, as it will take a few weeks before vegetation conditions begin improving from the ongoing rainfall. Because of the poor vegetation and long trekking distances, livestock body conditions remain poor to very poor for grazers and fair to very poor for browsers. Relatedly, milk production and consumption, an important source of food and income for pastoral households, ranges from negligible to less than one liter per household per day across all pastoral areas and is, at best, 40 percent below the three-year average. However, ongoing cash transfers and in-kind food distributions from the government and humanitarian partners continue to help poor households minimize food consumption gaps, driving Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

• In most marginal agricultural areas, households are finalizing land preparation with planting ongoing for the March to May production season, where light showers have been received. However, agricultural labor opportunities are limited due to low liquidity among better-off households from below-average crop sales from the 2022 October to December short rains harvest and the high cost of agricultural inputs. To narrow income deficits, poor households rely heavily on off-own farm income activities such as selling charcoal and firewood and petty trade. Relatedly, poor households increasingly rely on market purchases for food as household stocks from the short rains harvest diminish. However, the high staple food prices and below-average household incomes are impacting household purchasing power, driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with the worst affected areas in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

• Across Kenya, staple food prices remain historically high, driven by low local availability following successive below-average harvests, high demand, and high global prices. In February, maize prices in most FEWS NET monitored markets were 17 to 97 percent above the five-year averages but at least double the five-year average in Meru (Meru North), Embu (Mbeere), Taita Taveta, and Eldoret. Similarly, dry bean prices were 50 to 76 percent above the five-year average and over double the average price in Meru (Meru North). The high food prices are continuing to limit household purchasing power.

• Livestock prices remain unseasonably low in most FEWS NET monitored markets, with the price of a mature medium-sized goat selling for 6 to 42 percent below the five-year average due to the poor to very poor body conditions, small herd sizes, and limited demand. However, in Narok, goat prices were within five percent of the five-year average, while livestock prices in Tana River and Laikipia were 14 to 19 percent above average due to relatively better body conditions and higher demand from traders. Overall, the low sale values for livestock limit access to an important income source for pastoral households and constrain their purchasing power.

• In February, the government authorized local private traders and millers to import 900,000 metric tonnes (MT) and 600,000 MT of duty-free white maize and rice between February and August 2023 to mitigate market deficits in the country and reduce prices. In March this was expanded to include 500,000 MT of yellow maize and 200,000 MT of soybeans for livestock feed. However, local millers have withdrawn from the import program citing difficulty in complying with a set condition that the imported maize is required to land in Kenya at a price of 4,200 KES (~32 USD) per 90-kilogram sack due to high fuel costs, high global demand, and high global prices. The government is also seeking to source maize from Zambia, but high transportation costs are likely to keep importation prices high. Currently a 2-kilogram packet of maize flour retails at an unsubsidized market price of around 180 KES to 210 KES which is nearly double the previously subsidized cost of 100 KES. The high prices are constraining household food access in urban and rural areas, contributing to low purchasing power and increased acute food insecurity.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Kenya Key Message Update March 2023: High food prices and ongoing drought impacts continue to drive food insecurity as long rains begin, 2023.