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Above average terms of trade cushioning households into the lean season

Above average terms of trade cushioning households into the lean season

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • The flood-affected riverine areas of Garissa and Tana River counties are currently experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes which are anticipated to persist through January. Despite an end to most flood response humanitarian assistance programs, affected households continue to gradually recover from the severe flooding in April and May, supported by seasonal sale of livestock and fruits. A large proportion of households that were previously in IDP camps have returned to their homes but remain food insecure as they lack household food stocks and are relying on both consumption and livelihood based coping strategies to meet minimum food requirements.
    • Across pastoral areas, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through January. Vegetation conditions continue to improve and currently average to above average but declining seasonally. Water availability remains average except in Turkana, Garissa, and Wajir where return trekking distances to both human and livestock sources are above the five-year averages. In areas of Turkana and Masabit counties, which were the worst affected by the recent drought and still recovering, households are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, which are expected to continue through January. The goat-to-maize terms of trade are 8 to 83 percent above the five-year averages but twice the averages in Isiolo and Mandera, supporting above-average household food access despite being constrained by low livestock herd sizes. 
    • Across marginal agricultural areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through January as the current long rains harvests, though below average, is driving short-term below-average market prices of staple foods, supporting household food availability and access. Due to the below-average crop harvests, households are facing below-average income from both crop sales and casual wage labor. Households in these areas are likely to face constrained food access as household food stocks are depleted, and they revert to sourcing of high-priced staple foods from markets.
    • According to global forecasts, the March to August rains in unimodal areas of Kenya are likely to be average. The forecasts also indicate that La Niña is the most likely state by October. The October to December short rains season is most likely to have below-average rainfall, ranging from 45 – 75 percent of the average in northern and northeastern Kenya, and 75 – 90 percent of the average in southern and coastal areas. 
    • In July, maize prices ranged from average to around 30 percent below the five-year averages supported by short rains harvests, 2023 long rains unimodal harvests, and above-average cross-border imports from Tanzania and Uganda. In contrast, prices were above average in pastoral markets due to high demand and high marketing costs. Dry bean prices ranged from average to 10 percent below average due to available local harvests and cross-border imports from Tanzania and Ethiopia. However, prices in Kisumu, Nairobi, Makueni and Kitui counties were above the five-year averages due to below-average national production driven by erratic rainfall and persistent high national demand. 

    Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Kenya Key Message Update August 2024: Above average terms of trade cushioning households into the lean season, 2024.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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