Below-average short rains, high temperatures to drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) into May

• Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand across the pastoral areas through May, driven by below average incomes and livestock productivity, which will continue to drive the unsustainable exploitation of livelihood assets. The forecast significantly below-average October to December short rains and elevated temperatures will hinder recovery of rangeland resources. Though the anticipated average March to May long rains may support short-lived improvements from late April, livestock productivity, body conditions, and herd sizes will remain atypically low, limiting household milk availability and income from milk and livestock sales. With staple food prices likely to remain elevated, limited incomes will continue to restrict purchasing power and capacity to access food.
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand into marginal agricultural areas in Kitui, Makueni, and Lamu from February through May as food security deteriorates. The anticipated below-average short rains crop harvest in February will result in limited income from crop sales and below-average food stocks. Households will rely on markets earlier than usual, but low incomes and high staple food prices will constrain their purchasing power, limiting food access.
• FEWS NET estimates that 3.0 to 3.49 million people will require humanitarian food assistance between October 2025 and May 2026, with needs expected to peak between March and May. The pastoral areas and marginal agricultural areas of Kitui and Makueni will be the areas of highest concern.  
• Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to persist in Kakuma and Dadaab refugee camps due to limited incomes amid reduced humanitarian assistance. Increased competition amid reduced cash transfers will reduce incomes from the typical unstable income sources such as casual or day labor and self-employment within the camps, constraining households’ ability to meet food needs. The current rationed humanitarian food assistance and remittances will partially alleviate food consumption gaps, but remain insufficient to fully narrow the consumption deficits for a portion of the most vulnerable households. 

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 31, 2025.  

• Across the marginal agricultural areas, most households are yet to plant, despite the short rains season being well underway. Where planting had occurred, the germinated crops are experiencing moisture stress. Household food stocks are significantly low in most areas, with stocks already depleted in Kitui and Makueni. Consequently, market reliance is atypically high. However, household purchasing capacities and access to food continue to be constrained by limited incomes from crop sales and reduced demand for agricultural labor.
• In pastoral areas, the anomalous low rainfall coupled with persistent above-average temperatures continues to impede the seasonal regeneration of forage and water sources, sustaining below-average livestock body conditions and productivity. According to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for October 11-20, vegetation greenness remains below the 20-year average in most pastoral areas. In September, the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) reported a significant decline in water sources and, correspondingly, return trekking distances to livestock watering points increased to near average levels except in Garissa and Turkana, where they were above average. The U.S. Geological Survey Water Point Viewer data for September indicated that most of the monitored open water sources are seasonally dry, while half of the sources are in “watch” and “alert”, corresponding to water levels of 50-100 percent and 3-50 percent below the long-term median, respectively.
• Staple food prices continue to trend near to above five-year average levels, driven by tight supply amid elevated demand. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development indicate that wholesale maize prices in the urban reference markets of Nairobi and Kisumu have followed typical seasonal trends, but in September were 24-26 percent higher than in 2024, reflecting sustained demand. Compared to the five-year average, maize prices in Kisumu and Nairobi were near average to 7 percent higher. In marginal agricultural areas, retail maize prices followed seasonal trends but ranged from average to 14 percent above the five-year average in most areas in September, reflecting tighter supply. Maize from the ongoing long rains harvest in the unimodal areas in the Rift Valley and western Kenya is currently moderating food prices slightly, but demand for white maize for both human and livestock consumption is preventing a more substantial easing of prices. The prices of beans generally declined between May and September, driven by a gradual increase in supply from the above-average long rains season production in the unimodal and bimodal medium- and high-potential areas, and cross-border imports from Tanzania. In September, wholesale beans prices were 11 percent below the five-year average in Nairobi, while in Kisumu they were 15 percent above the five-year average. In marginal agricultural areas, retail bean prices also declined but remained average to 15 percent above the five-year average in September due to below-average localized production of beans and substitutes such as green grams and cowpeas.
• Purchasing power of pastoral households remains below average due to low herd sizes, despite high demand and above-average prices for livestock. In September, the price of a medium-sized goat ranged from 11-55 percent above the five-year average. The goat-to-maize terms of trade – the amount of maize grain one goat sale can buy – are generally 8–63 percent above the five-year average. However, households have not fully recovered from the severe 2020-2023 drought, which resulted in increased livestock deaths and distress sales. The below-average herd sizes have reduced milk availability and are discouraging pastoralists from selling livestock, which would typically be an important source of income. As a result, household incomes and milk availability are atypically low.

Humanitarian food assistance

Humanitarian food assistance has declined due to reductions in funding. In August, WFP began implementing its new Differentiated Assistance (DA) approach, which classifies refugee households into four categories for targeted humanitarian aid and development interventions. However, due to funding cuts, WFP implemented prioritized General Food Distributions under the DA approach, focusing on the most vulnerable households. Approximately 513,000 refugees in Dadaab and Kakuma camps – representing 69 percent of the refugee population - received food rations. Households in categories 1 and 2 received 40 percent and 20 percent of the Minimum Food Basket, respectively, for the months of August and September. Refugees in Categories 3 and 4 received no food rations.

Pastoral areas: 

Turkana, Marsabit, and Mandera are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes as below-average incomes persist, driving food consumption gaps and high prevalence of acute malnutrition, while Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing in Wajir, Garissa, Tana River, Samburu, Isiolo, and West Pokot. Availability of milk has declined across most of the pastoral areas and is atypically low in Mandera and Marsabit, adversely affecting household consumption and sales. Despite above-average livestock prices, low herd sizes have limited households’ capacity to sell livestock, constraining household incomes. Off-own-farm income-earning opportunities, such as petty trade and the production and sale of charcoal and firewood, are providing some income for households, but elevated staple food prices continue to undermine households’ ability to access food from markets. Consequently, at least one in five households in Turkana, Marsabit and Mandera are experiencing food consumption gaps or employing livelihood coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3), including selling productive assets and reducing expenses on health care. Households are also engaging in consumption-based coping strategies, including skipping meals, reducing food portion sizes, reducing meal frequency, and eating less-preferred and cheaper foods. 

In Tana River, Samburu, Isiolo, and West Pokot – which have higher rates of agropastoralism and are closer to higher potential agricultural areas – and Garissa and Wajir, households are able to meet their minimum food needs only through engaging in livelihood coping strategies associated with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, such as borrowing money, spending savings and selling non-productive assets. Acute malnutrition prevalence is Critical (GAM WHZ 15-29.9 percent) in Turkana, Mandera, Samburu, Garissa, Isiolo and parts of Marsabit, and Serious (GAM WHZ 10-14.9 percent) in Wajir, Tana River, West Pokot and parts of Marsabit. The prevalence of acute malnutrition is exacerbated by limited outreach services and reduced funding for humanitarian assistance.

Marginal agricultural areas: 

Area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing in marginal agricultural areas as most households have exhausted their food stocks and are increasingly market-dependent amid constrained incomes and elevated staple food prices, particularly in Lamu, Kitui, Makueni, and Meru North. Crop sales are minimal among households that are still holding stocks. Agricultural labor opportunities from ongoing land preparation activities for the short rains season and off-own-farm income opportunities – such as petty trade and charcoal and firewood production and sale – are providing income to poor households with access. However, labor opportunities and related income are limited due to the delayed onset of the rains and the expectation of below-average rainfall for the short rains season. The limited purchasing power and high staple food prices are constraining household food access, forcing poor households to adopt consumption coping strategies such as consuming less preferred and less expensive foods. Households are also engaging in livelihood coping strategies such as spending household savings on food, selling non-productive assets, purchasing food on credit, and borrowing money to meet their minimum food needs, but they remain unable to meet their essential non-food needs. Acute malnutrition prevalence ranges from Acceptable (GAM WHZ <5 percent or MUAC <5 percent) in Kilifi to Alert (GAM WHZ 5-9.9 percent or MUAC 6-10.9 percent) in Makueni, Kitui, Lamu, and Meru North, mainly driven by poor dietary diversity and reduced meal frequency.

Refugee camps:

Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely ongoing in Kakuma and Dadaab refugee camps as limited incomes and elevated staple food prices constrain purchasing capacity of households amid reduced humanitarian assistance. Refugee households depend primarily on markets, as little food is produced in the camps. The income sources for refugees, including casual or day labor, self-employment within the camps, and remittances, are unstable and there is increasingly intense competition for dwindling income-earning opportunities. The low and unreliable income, with elevated food prices, is restricting refugees’ purchasing capacity and financial access to food. As a result, most refugees are engaging in coping strategies such as borrowing and purchasing food on credit to meet their minimum food needs. Although reduced, humanitarian food assistance is helping refugee households to minimally fill food consumption gaps and is preventing worse outcomes. 

• Based on ensemble forecast models, the October to December 2025 short rains season is likely to be below average to significantly below average in most of the country, driven by forecast La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, elevating the likelihood of localized drought in eastern Kenya.
• The 2026 March-May long rains are expected to be average, although uncertainty exists given the long lead time for the forecast.
• Global ensemble forecasts indicate that above-average temperatures are most likely through May 2026 across the country. The temperatures will likely range between 0.5 and 1.5 degrees Celsius above average, which will increase evaporation of open water sources and soil moisture and evapotranspiration in plants (Figure 2).
• Availability of pasture, browse, and water resources is expected to be below average in the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas through March, driven by above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall. Despite short-lived improvements anticipated in November, the typical peak of the seasonal rains, livestock return trekking distances to watering points will likely be above average, with reduced watering frequencies through March.
• Livestock herd sizes will remain below average due to the persisting slow recovery from the 2020-2023 drought.
• Localized conflicts over livestock grazing areas and watering points are likely between January and mid-March in the conflict-prone areas of Turkana, Baringo, Samburu, and Marsabit.
• Livestock body conditions in the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas are likely to be below average through March due to below-average availability of rangeland resources. Consequently, milk production is expected to be below average and seasonally deteriorate from January through March when forage and water resources decline, before improving with the long rains in April and May.
• Countrywide, the 2025 total maize production will likely be 10 percent above the five-year average, largely attributed to above-average harvests in the unimodal high- and medium-potential areas due to above-average March-May rainfall and government-subsidized fertilizer.
• Aggregate crop production from the October to December short rains season will likely be below-average due to the anticipated below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures.
• Based on price projections by FEWS NET, wholesale maize prices in Nairobi are expected to follow seasonal trends and range from 4,327 KES to 4,867 KES per 90-kilogram bag, which will be 9-14 percent above the five-year average, influenced by heightened demand and high costs of inputs for production and fuel for transport. Wholesale beans prices are expected to be 9,876-11,385 KES per 90-kilogram bag, which will be within the five-year average range, driven by supply from the expected harvests from the short rains production in western Kenya and the Central Highlands regions and cross-border imports from Tanzania.
• The government’s Hunger Safety Net Program (HSNP) is expected to continue providing cash transfers to approximately 133,800 registered households in the eight counties the program covers - Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, and Samburu. The Inua Jamii program, implemented countrywide by the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection, is also expected to continue providing cash transfers to registered vulnerable persons (elderly, orphans and vulnerable children, and persons living with disability).

Humanitarian food assistance

• Humanitarian food assistance for refugees by WFP is expected to remain at the reduced levels observed in August, with Categories 1 (Extremely vulnerable households) and 2 (Vulnerable households) receiving 40 percent and 20 percent food rations, respectively, and Categories 3 (Partially Self-reliant households) and 4 (Self-reliant households) receiving no food rations.

Pastoral areas:

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are projected to expand to Garissa, Wajir, and Tana River by January 2026 as constrained incomes drive moderate food consumption gaps; however, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are projected to continue in Samburu and Isiolo. The forecast significantly below-average short rains will temporarily improve rangeland resources starting in November, slightly improving livestock body conditions and productivity. However, improvements will be short lived, and livestock will remain in dry season grazing areas, resulting in below-average household milk availability, consumption, and sales income. Despite average livestock births, dry conditions and limited milk availability will likely reduce offspring survival rates between October and December, maintaining low herd sizes. The forecast above-average temperatures will accelerate rangeland deterioration from early December, driving an atypically early decline in livestock body conditions and productivity. Low herd sizes and poor body conditions will constrain livestock sales and market value, further constraining household incomes. Combined with average to above-average staple food prices, household purchasing power and food access will remain constrained and drive increased reliance on livelihood and consumption-based coping strategies.

From February onwards, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand to Samburu and Isiolo as dry conditions intensify, driving atypically low income and milk production. Rangeland resource availability is expected to be atypically low at the peak of the short lean season in February, likely increasing conflicts over pasture and water access. Atypical livestock migrations may occur in the worst-affected areas. From mid-March, the forecast average March to May long rains will begin restoring rangelands, but biomass will remain below average, keeping livestock in dry season grazing areas through March and limiting household milk availability and sales. Below-average births are likely due to below-average conceptions and increased abortions, maintaining low herd sizes and restricting livestock sales. Average to above-average staple food prices will continue constraining household purchasing capacities and food access. Poor households will increasingly adopt livelihood coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The prevalence of acute malnutrition will gradually increase but remain within Critical (GAM WHZ 15-29.9 percent) in Turkana, Mandera, Samburu, Garissa, Isiolo, and parts of Marsabit and West Pokot, and Serious (GAM WHZ 10-14.9 percent) in Wajir, Tana River, and parts of West Pokot and Marsabit.

Marginal agricultural areas:

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to continue in marginal agricultural areas through January. Below-average income from limited crop sales will drive poor households to increasingly depend on agricultural labor and off-own-farm activities for income. The delayed onset and forecast significantly below-average performance of the October-December short rains will drive below-average agricultural labor demand and income in October and November. With food stocks depleted, more households will be market dependent amid high food prices and constrained purchasing capacity. Poor households will increasingly adopt consumption-based coping strategies, including consuming cheaper and less preferred foods, and livelihood coping strategies such as buying food on credit and using savings for food. From late December to January, green harvests of pulses will temporarily reduce market dependence, but the below-average rains are expected to lead to below-average production.

While Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will prevail in most marginal agricultural areas between February and May, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to spread to Kitui, Makueni, and Lamu, where the anticipated below-average short rains harvests will mark the third consecutive poor production season, prolonging the period of depleted household food stocks and limited purchasing power. Short rains production will only minimally replenish household food stocks, driving atypically early and high market dependence. Although labor demand by the middle and better-off households during land preparation, planting, and weeding for the long rains crop production will offer short-term income for poor households, deficits will remain high and constrain purchasing capacities and food access. Consequently, an increasing number of poor households will deplete their livelihood assets or engage in coping strategies, such as consuming seed stock and reducing expenditures on health, to meet their marginal food needs. In the remaining marginal agricultural areas, the anticipated below-average short rains harvest in February will slightly boost carry-over household stocks from the previous season, reducing market dependence through early March. Crop sales will be atypically low, but agricultural labor and off-own-farm opportunities during the long rains season will narrow income deficits. Market dependence is expected to gradually increase to atypically high levels from March amid constrained household purchasing capacities due to below-average incomes and elevated staple food prices. Consequently, an increasing number of households will likely engage in consumption-based coping strategies, such as skipping meals, reducing portion sizes, and prioritizing feeding children, and livelihood coping strategies, such as borrowing money or purchasing food on credit. Consequently, the prevalence of acute malnutrition is expected to gradually increase but range from Acceptable (GAM WHZ <5 percent) to Alert (GAM WHZ 5-9.9 percent), driven primarily by poor dietary diversity and reduced meal frequency.

Refugee camps:

Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to continue in refugee camps through May, as reduced humanitarian food assistance prevents worse outcomes. Incomes are expected to remain constrained amid high food prices, limiting purchasing capacity among the heavily market-dependent population. The differentiated food assistance rations to refugee households in Categories 1 and 2 are expected to help most meet their minimum food needs. However, some refugees in Categories 1 and 2 with limited access to alternative income sources (though less than 20 percent of the total refugee population) will experience food consumption gaps that the reduced assistance cannot cover.

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. 

FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

• How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario.
• How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

Below-average rainfall during the March to May long rains season.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Below-average rainfall during the long rains season, following an intense lean season in pastoral areas due to significantly below-average short rains, would lead to only modest recovery of rangeland resources. Consequently, forage and water availability between April and May would be limited, impeding improvements in livestock body conditions and productivity. Milk availability and income from livestock sales are expected to remain below average through May. In marginal agricultural areas, below-average long rains would adversely impact crop growth and development, leading to below-average yields at season’s end. This would reduce food availability in households and market supplies, driving prices higher. Demand for agricultural labor would reduce, further restricting labor opportunities and incomes for poor households. Overall, the increasingly limited income opportunities and further constraints to food availability and access will drive an increase in the number of poor households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes in both the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas.