Below-average short rains to worsen food security in coming months

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in the pastoral areas of Turkana, Marsabit, and Garissa counties through at least May following a below-average start to the October – December (OND) short rains season. Low livestock herd sizes combined with limited improvements in forage and livestock body conditions during the OND short rains season will likely result in below average total milk availability. To meet minimum food needs, households will resort to unsustainable negative coping strategies like skipping meals.
• Across the rest of the pastoral areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes anticipated through January due to the slightly below-average forage and water sources maintained by the below-average cumulative OND short rains. From February to May, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in Tana River, Samburu, Wijir, and Mandera counties, following a below-average cumulative OND short rains season limiting improvements to livestock body conditions and production. Subsequently, an anticipated below-average March to May long rains season could further exacerbate deteriorations in livestock conditions.
• Across marginal agricultural areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through January. Average to above-average long rains harvests from the high and medium potential areas and cross-border imports are currently bolstering poor household food access. However, the anticipated below-average OND short rains harvests in February will limit poor household staple grains stocks and income from crop sales. In the absence of typical food stocks, households will employ consumption and livelihood coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Makueni and Kitui counties through May.
• FEWS NET estimates that 2.5 to 2.99 million people will require humanitarian food assistance between October 2024 and May 2025. Needs are expected to peak at the end of February 2025, before the onset of the March to May long rains. 
• Global forecasts indicate that La Niña is the most likely state by October with the cumulative rainfall during the OND short rains season likely to be below-average. In addition, the March to May long rains are also expected to be below average, particularly in eastern Kenya. However, uncertainty exists given the long lead time, expectations for emerging La Niña conditions, and conflicting ensemble forecasts.

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 31, 2024.

In October, strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index values were observed, and similar values are forecasted through November. This increases the likelihood of below-average rainfall continuing to affect the October to December (OND) short rains season. Cumulativerainfall during the OND short rains is expected to be below-average, coinciding with the likely onset of La Niña in October. Current rainfall deficits, combined with forecasted poor precipitation, are anticipated to result in below-average crop production in Eastern Kenya and hinder the seasonal improvement of pasture conditions across pastoral areas.

In the unimodal and major producing areas in the western half of Kenya, the harvesting of long rains cereals is underway, with favorable conditions due to average to slightly above-average March to August long rains, with generally near-average yields expected. The OND rainfall season was delayed, and cumulative October rainfall was below-average. The planting and development of second season cereals are ongoing in minor producing bimodal areas but face challenges due to delayed and below-average rains and early season dry conditions, particularly in eastern Kenya. Dry and above average temperature conditions are expected to prevail across most equatorial and southern areas through January 2025. Observed and forecasted dry and above average temperature conditions are also a concern for rainfed cropping areas and pastoral vegetation productivity in central, eastern, and northeastern Kenya. 

Staple food prices in September varied, with maize prices ranging from 8 to 30 percent below the five-year averages, driven by cross-border imports, household stocks, and local harvests. In contrast, bean prices are 7 to 29 percent above average due to low local supplies and high demand. 

Water availability is decreasing across arid and semi-arid areas (ASALs), as indicated by increasing return trekking distances to domestic and livestock water sources. Return trekking distances to domestic water sources are on an increasing trend, while return trekking distances for livestock to water sources from grazing areas were 20 to 60 percent below average, except in Garissa, where they were 37 percent above average due to drying up of water pans and decreasing water levels in the Tana River. Forage conditions are currently average in western, central, and southwestern areas and parts of Turkana, Mandera, Isiolo, and Garissa counties but are less than 70 percent of average across the rest of the country due to atypically hot and dry conditions. 

In marginal agricultural areas, household incomes from crop sales are seasonally low as stocks become depleted and wage labor opportunities from crop production and off-farm income are below-average. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through January due to below-average household food stocks and reduced income from crop sales and wage labor resulting from below-average OND crop production. However, worse impacts will be mitigated by below-average staple food prices resulting from average harvests in high- and medium-potential areas and cross-border imports, which will maintain poor household food access. From February through at least May, an increasing number of areas facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes is anticipated.

In pastoral areas, significantly above-average livestock prices are supporting above-average goat-to-maize terms-of-trade, which are 20 to 95 percent above-average. However, despite the above-average terms of trade, below-average herd sizes are limiting the number of livestock available for sale. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in the pastoral areas of Turkana, Marsabit, and Garissa counties through at least May following an atypically dry lean season and below-average start to the October – December (OND) short rains season. Across the rest of the pastoral areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are anticipated through January due to the recovery of the past three average rainfall seasons and the near-average forage and water sources maintained by the below-average cumulative October to December short rains. From February to May, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in Tana River, Samburu, Tana River counties.

Learn more

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 01, 2024. Follow these links for additional information: 

• NDMA Early Warning Bulletins
• Food Security Outlook February 2024
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology 
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis

In Kenya, two rainy seasons significantly influence food security dynamics. The country can be categorized into three main regions: high and medium potential areas in Rift Valley, western and central Kenya, with unimodal and bimodal rainfall patterns; marginal agricultural areas in coastal and southeastern regions; and pastoral areas. Unimodal areas experience a single extended rainy season from February to August, while bimodal areas have two seasons: March to May (long rains) and October to December (short rains). 

High-potential areas and marginal agricultural zones yield over 70% of the annual crop production during the long rains. The long rains, crucial for staple crops like maize, beans, and sorghum, peak in March to May, supporting food availability and market prices with the June harvest. However, variable rainfall can lead to crop failure or stunted growth, and extreme weather can cause flooding, particularly in low-lying areas, disrupting food production and markets. During short rains, farmers plant short-cycle crops like vegetables and pulses, harvested in December and January, and staple crops like maize, harvested from February, which sustain household food supplies into the new year. The short rains are crucial in arid and semi-arid regions. However, these regions often face erratic rainfall, leading to crop failures. In pastoral areas, livestock are essential for food security, relying on rainfall to replenish pastures. Inadequate rainfall harms livestock health and productivity, affecting milk production and increasing migration and resource conflicts. Calving of cows, goats, and camels typically occurs right before the start of the long rains and/or short rains seasons to ensure adequate pasture and water availability. During the reporting period, the peak months of milk availability will be November to December.

The most recent drought, from late 2020 through early 2023, had severe impacts on food security across the country. This prolonged drought, one of the worst in decades, led to significant crop failures and livestock deaths, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. The lack of adequate rainfall drastically reduced agricultural yields, leading to widespread food shortages and soaring prices for staple foods such as maize, beans, and sorghum. The drought also depleted water sources and pastures, impacting pastoral communities that rely heavily on livestock, forcing households to sell off remaining livestock at low prices and undermining their long-term economic stability and resilience to future shocks. In February 2023, 4.4 million Kenyans faced increased acute food insecurity, which was the country’s highest rate of food insecurity in the last 20 years. Following this peak, there have been three successive above-average rainfall seasons that have driven significant recovery. However, households lost significant assets during the drought period as they attempted to cope in a situation exacerbated by high inflation and depreciation of the Kenya Shilling, which drove high costs of living,  constraining household food access. During the 2024 March to May long rains the country experienced widespread above-average rainfall due to El-Niño, which drove further improvements in forage and water availability and crop production in the high-and-medium production areas. Severe flooding affected at least 43 counties and 101,132 households, displacing over 55,000 households and causing destruction to crops, infrastructure, property, and facilities. Despite this, the number of food insecure people dropped to 1 million people in August 2024, driven by the positive impacts of the successive rainfall seasons and economic recovery that significantly improved food availability and access.

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting outcomes months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is the methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. The starting point for scenario development is a robust analysis of current food security conditions, which is the focus of this section. 

Key guiding principles for FEWS NET’s scenario development process include applying the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assessing acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity is a function of not only hazards (such as a drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to those hazards (for example, the household’s level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both household capacity to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future coping capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET grounds this analysis in a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods, which are the means by which a household meets their basic needs. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

Key hazards

Rainfall performance: 

According to global and local forecasts, the October to December (OND) short rains are forecasted to be below average. As of mid-October, rainfall onset has been mixed, ranging from 20 days early to 10 days late across most the country. As of mid-October, cumulative rainfall was 90 to 125 percent of the average in southwest, eastern, and southeastern areas and parts of coastal Kenya, 45 to 75 percent of the average in eastern, central, southeast, and northwestern Kenya, and 75 to 90 percent of the average across the rest of the country (Figure 2).

Staple food prices: 

According to Ministry of Agriculture wholesale price data, wholesale maize prices have been on a declining trend in 2024, driven by cross-border imports. From mid-2024, prices dropped to below-average across most markets due to local harvests. In September, wholesale maize prices in urban reference markets were 8 to 20 percent below the five-year average (Figure 3). Retail maize prices in marginal areas were 9 percent to 30 percent below the five-year average. In the pastoral areas, prices were 16 percent below average in Isiolo due to increased supplies from neighboring source markets in the high- and medium-production areas of central Kenya and average in Marsabit due to cross-border supplies from Ethiopia. Across the remaining pastoral areas, prices ranged from 10 to 31 percent above average due to high demand driven by low household food stocks and high purchasing power.

Bean prices have been on the decline since April, driven by availability from local harvests and above-average cross-border imports from Uganda. Bean prices range from 12,510 to 13,500 KES per 90-kilogram bag and remain 15 to 29 percent above the five-year average due to sustained high demand driven by successive slightly below-average production seasons. Retail bean prices in marginal areas are 7 to 21 percent above the five-year averages due to increasing demand as household stocks seasonally decrease. The exception is Kilifi, where they are 18 percent below the average due to cross-border imports from Ethiopia. Above-average staple food prices are constraining household food access across both marginal agricultural and pastoral areas with poor households allocating a larger portion of their income to purchase food.

Forage and water conditions: 

Forage and water conditions have declined seasonally between rainfall seasons. According to NDMA sentinel site data, the main sources of water across marginal areas are springs, traditional river wells, shallow wells rivers, and boreholes, which are typical at this time of the year. According to September NDMA data, trekking distances to domestic water sources ranged from 1.1 to 7.5 kilometers, which are 9 to 19 percent, respectively, above the five-year averages. 

In pastoral areas, the main water sources are rivers, shallow wells, boreholes, pans and dams, traditional river wells, springs, and natural ponds. In September, according to the USGS Water Point Viewer, the water points are classified as “good” and have water levels above the median. However, water points in central and northern Marsabit are classified as “watch” and are between 50 and 100 percent of the median due to seasonality. Currently, distances to domestic water sources are on an increasing trend, and households are trekking distances of 2.1 to 10 kilometers, which are average to 43 percent below average, except in Wajir and Garissa, where the distances are 47 and 61 percent above average. Distances for livestock to water sources from grazing areas are stable or on an increasing trend and range from 6.3 to 18.4 kilometers. For Garissa in particular, trekking distances are 37 percent above the five-year averages. 

Forage conditions: 

According to eVIIRS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) imagery from October (Figure 4), vegetation greenness ranges from 105 to 130 percent of the 10-year average in some central and southwestern areas, and parts of Turkana, Mandera, Isiolo, and Garissa counties, but is less than 80 percent of average across the rest of the country due to the atypically hot and dry conditions experienced in recent months between rainfall seasons. In parts of Kwale, Marsabit and Turkana, the vegetation greeness was sigificantly lower than 60 percent of average.   

Crop production: 

According to estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture, the total annual March – May (MAM) long rains maize production in 2024 was 10 to 15 percent above the five-year average, driven by average MAM long rains cumulative rainfall and the availability of subsidized fertilizer. However, the erratic rainfall negatively impacted bean production by waterlogging the soils, and bean production was 5 to 10 percent below average. 

In unimodal areas of central and western Kenya and the Rift Valley, MAM long rains crops benefitted from average to above-average rainfall which boosted yields. In contrast to national averages, across marginal agricultural areas, MAM long rains production was below average due to erratic heavy rainfall that led to waterlogging of soils followed by an early cessation of the MAM long rains season. In the southeast, maize production was below the five-year average, except in Kitui, where production was 20 percent above average due to an increase in area planted. Production of green grams and cowpeas was 9 percent and 28 percent below the five-year averages, respectively. In coastal marginal agricultural areas, maize and green gram production was 70 percent and 90 percent below the five-year averages, while cowpea production was 82 percent below the five-year average. 

Land preparation and planting for the OND short rains cropping season is underway across the country. In high- and medium-potential areas, maize crop conditions are favorable in the north rift region, where most of the crop is at the reproductive stages of grain filling and ripening. 

Livestock production: 

In pastoral areas, livestock production has remained stable or is declining seasonally, driven by declining forage and water conditions. Low herd sizes continue to limit livestock sales, with households opting to focus on restocking their herds. Migrating livestock are staying close to homesteads due to the location of available water sources, providing slightly above-average milk availability to households for consumption and sale. According to the September NDMA data, milk consumption ranges from 1.1 to 1.7 liters per household per day, which is 11 to 160 percent above the five-year average across most pastoral areas. However, in Garissa milk consumption is 20 percent below average due to households opting to sell a portion of the milk for income. Across pastoral areas, milk production ranges from 1.4 to 2.8 liters per household per day, which is between 30 percent above the five-year average to twice the average. Above-average milk production and availability remain limited due to low herd sizes. 

According to the NDMA September early warning bulletins, livestock disease surveillance was active throughout the period under review, with reports of continued prevalence of endemic diseases such as peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), although livestock mortalities were average in all species across the livelihood zones. 

Livestock prices: 

Supported by previous consecutive above-average rainfall seasons, livestock in pastoral areas have maintained at least fair body conditions, supporting significantly above-average livestock prices. In September, the retail price for a medium-sized two-year-old goat ranged from 3,690 to 8,467 KES across all pastoral areas, driven by average to above-average livestock body conditions. Goat prices are 38 to 91 percent above the five-year averages, and at least twice the averages in Marsabit and Mandera counties, indicating above-average potential income from livestock sales. The goat-to-maize terms of trade ranged from 73 to 122 kilograms of maize purchased per goat sold but were relatively lower in Turkana and Garissa at 40 and 43 kilograms, respectively (Figure 5). Compared to the five-year average, the terms of trade were 20 to 95 percent above the averages, except in Isiolo and Marsabit, where they were more than twice the averages. Despite the above-average terms of trade, below-average herd sizes limit the number of livestock actually available for sale.

Market supplies: 

According to the East Africa Crossborder Trade Bulletin, Kenya increased imports of maize from Uganda, Tanzania, and Ethiopia to ease deficits as carryover stocks from the 2023 harvests dwindled. In addition to imports, the local harvests from bimodal areas that were available from July onwards increased maize supplies in markets through September, resulting in gradually declining maize prices. Similarly, for beans, imports from Uganda are supporting consecutive below-average local bimodal harvests. 

Household purchasing capacity: 

Across marginal agricultural areas, household incomes from crop sales are below average as household stocks seasonally deplete. Waged labor opportunities from land clearing and tilling for the OND short rains season are providing average opportunities and incomes. Off-own farm income sources, such as charcoal and firewood production and sales and petty trade, are also providing average opportunity and incomes. Although these opportunities are narrowing the income deficits, total household incomes remain below average due to low incomes from crop sales due to below average MAM long rains crop harvests, constraining household purchasing power and access to food.

Humanitarian food assistance—emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher)—may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that information on food assistance is highly variable across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance); see report Annex. In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Other types of assistance (e.g., livelihoods or nutrition assistance; social safety net programs) are incorporated elsewhere in FEWS NET’s broader analysis, as applicable. 

Following gradual improvements in food security conditions since 2024 April and May flooding, there has been a reduction in emergency humanitarian assistance, particularly impacting flood-affected populations. About one million targeted households across the country continue to be beneficiaries of various safety net programs provided by the government such as cash transfers providing at least 2,000 KES (~16 USD) monthly. In the arid counties of Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, and Samburu, the Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP) implemented by NDMA continues to provide 5,400 KES (~42 USD) every two months to at least 125,000 households. 

Based on the analysis of food security conditions, FEWS NET then assesses the extent to which households are able to meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change; FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, with a focus on assessing if these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity rather than other non-food-related factors. Ultimately, FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.

Pastoral areas: 

In October, households are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, cushioned by previous above-average rainfall seasons. However, Marsabit and Turkana counties are experiencing area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Across pastoral areas drought gradual drought recovery has been supported by the favorable performance of both 2023 rainfall seasons and the 2024 long rains rainfall season. Currently, above-average milk production continues to support household food access. Current rainfall deficits in October are limiting the recovery of water and forage conditions after the lean season. However, the limited rainfall has thus far supported the maintenance of slightly-below average conditions. In addition, household purchasing power remains constrained by low livestock herd sizes. Marsabit and Turkana are experiencing the worst outcomes due to the more limited drought recovery given lower levels of rainfall compared to other pastoral areas over the last year. 

Marginal agricultural areas: 

Widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist in October, driven by depleted household food stocks from the MAM long rains production and below-average incomes from crop sales. Currently, the last of the harvesting for the MAM long rains cropping season is ongoing. Average harvests have provided average agricultural wage labor opportunities. In particular, key unimodal cropping areas with above-average harvests supported above average income opportunities. However, households in bimodal areas are limited by below average income from crop sales due to below-average harvests impacted by erratic rainfall. Currently, planting for the OND short rains season is underway across the country providing slightly below average agricultural wage labor opportunities due to limited rainfall accumulations. 

The next step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

National assumptions

• La Niña is the most likely state by October and therefore the OND short rains season is most likely to have below-average rainfall. Rainfall is expected to range from 45 to 75 percent of the average in northern and northeastern Kenya, and 75 to 90 percent of the average in southern and coastal areas. The MAM long rains are also expected to be below average. However, uncertainty exists given the long lead time, expectations for emerging La Niña conditions, and conflicting ensemble forecasts.
• Above-average temperatures are most likely from October through at least January across the country. The warmer-than-normal temperatures are likely to drive faster evapotranspiration rates from open water sources, soil, and plants, negatively impacting water and forage conditions in addition to cropping conditions. 
• The availability of forage resources is expected to be average in both pastoral and marginal areas through at least December, except in the coastal areas and pastoral northeast counties of Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, and Tana River counties, where forage conditions are likely to deteriorate to below-average levels by January and continue through at least March. 
• In pastoral and marginal areas, livestock production in terms of body conditions, births, milk, and meat production is expected to remain average through December, supported by the OND short rains. From January onwards, livestock productivity is expected to decline to below-average levels due to limited improvement of water and forage sources during the OND short rains.
• Wholesale maize prices in the Nairobi urban market are expected to range from 3,193 to 3,560 KES per 90-kilogram bag, which is 14 to 19 percent below the five-year average due to increased maize supplies driven by above-average cross-border imports from Uganda and Tanzania and average local unimodal maize harvests. 
• Dry bean prices in Nairobi urban markets are expected to range from 10,600 to 11,600 KES, which is 2 to 13 percent above the five-year average. However, these prices are below the prices in 2023 due to increased supply from cross-border imports from Uganda and Tanzania and average local production from unimodal areas.

Subnational assumptions for pastoral areas

• In Turkana, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, and Tana River counties, livestock migration is expected to be above average and include movement within the counties and outward to neighboring counties and countries like Uganda and Somalia due to limited availability of water and forage resources. From February onwards, atypical migration will likely be more widespread across pastoral areas as limited recovery of water and forage resources becomes more prevalent.

Subnational assumptions for marginal agricultural areas

• Aggregate MAM long rains maize production in the high and medium-potential areas of western Kenya and the Rift Valley will likely be 10 to 15 percent above the five-year average, driven by average rainfall and access to subsidized fertilizer. 
• OND short rains maize productions will likely be below-average from December – February due to below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures. 

Humanitarian food assistance

About one million targeted households across the country will continue to be beneficiaries of various safety nets provided by the government, such as cash transfers providing at least 2,000 KES (~16 USD) monthly. In the arid counties of Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, and Samburu, the Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP) implemented by NDMA will continue to provide 5,400 KES (~42 USD) every two months to at least 125,000 households. 

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. 

Pastoral areas: 

Due to drier-than-average conditions driving reduced milk production and, consequently, milk and food consumption, households will utilize negative livelihood and consumption-based coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes across most pastoral areas through at least January. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are anticipated to persist through at least May in Garissa, Turkana, and Marsabit due to relatively lower drought recovery over the last year and subsequent higher impacts from below-average OND short rains rainfall accumulations. Late-onset and below-average OND short rains will provide limited improvements in forage and water conditions and availability. These improvements will not be sufficient to drive livestock back to wet-season grazing areas, and they are likely to remain in dry-season grazing areas, reducing household milk availability for sale and consumption. Livestock body conditions are likely to improve slightly during the rainfall season, but from December onwards milk production and consumption are likely to deteriorate to below-average levels. Livestock body conditions are likely to deteriorate from late December, and subsequently, their sale values will decrease as the short-lived impacts of the below-average OND rains begin to wane. With livestock herd sizes remaining low, limited numbers of saleable livestock will constrain household income and purchasing power. Despite average conception rates during the MAM long rains, it is likely that the forecasted dry conditions will result in moderate abortions and deaths of newborns from October to December, reducing birth rates. 

Starting at the end of February, Mandera, Wjir, Tana River, and Samburu counties will deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions. In February, the short lean season will peak following the below-average OND short rains. In the worst-affected areas, it is likely that atypical migration will drive increased incidences of livestock diseases and resource-based conflicts. From mid-to-late March, anticipated below-average MAM long rains will only minimally improve water and forage conditions, resulting in incomplete recovery of rangeland resources following the previous below-average short rains season. Atypical migration will continue, with livestock migrating further than usual, constraining livelihood activities and livestock productivity. Calving and kidding will occur at below-average levels, restricting milk production. Given the consecutive below-average seasons, it is likely that livestock body conditions will remain at below-average levels, keeping sale values low. Below-average livestock herd sizes will continue to limit household income and food access, especially for poor households. 

Marginal agricultural areas: 

As limited incomes continue to constrain household food purchasing capacities and access to food, it is expected that an increasing number of poor households across marginal agricultural areas will engage in consumption and livelihood coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, such as reducing meal frequencies and portion sizes and spending savings. In November, poor households will continue to engage in agricultural labor activities during land preparation and planting. With limited incomes from crop sales, households will continue to engage in off-own-farm income activities such as the production and sale of charcoal and firewood and petty trade to bridge income deficits and support the purchases of seeds, fertilizers, and other inputs for the short rains season. Crop germination will likely occur in early November. However, the poor spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall will likely result in poor crop development in most areas due to high moisture deficits during the early growth stages. Consequently, the demand for agricultural waged labor during weeding and spraying periods will be atypically low, resulting in below-average incomes. Having depleted their household food stocks from the MAM long rains production, households’ reliance on market purchases will increase through January, when the expected below-average short rains harvests will be available. Despite below-average staple food prices, food purchases will continue to be limited by below-average incomes. The availability in late December of below-average green harvests of pulses such as beans and cowpeas will temporarily reduce market reliance. 

From February onwards, food security conditions will deteriorate in Kitui and Makueni counties and households will engage in consumption and livelihood coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. While the below-average short rains production will drive unusually low demand for agricultural labor during harvesting in February, the harvests will temporarily improve household food availability and reduce reliance on markets. Land clearing and preparation for the long rains cropping season in March will likely to provide households with some income generating opportunties. Households are likely to continue to engage in off-own farm livelihood activities to bridge income deficits. The income deficits will likely impede the acquisition of seeds and other inputs for the long rains season which will likely lower the area of crops planted. With the forecasted below-average MAM long rains, crop development in April and May is likely to be negatively impacted, with a lower demand for waged labor during weeding. As stocks from the OND short rains season are depleted atypically early, household reliance on markets will remain atypically high. 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a crediblealternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

Severely below-average crop production in the high- and medium-rainfall areas of Rift Valley and in central and western Kenya during the OND short rains season.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: The OND harvest is approximately 70 percent of the total annual harvest in these areas and is critical in supplying markets, especially in surrounding deficit areas. The resultant significant deficits in staple food supplies and increased demand across the country could drive increases in staple food prices, reducing poor household staple food access. As a result, poor households would increase the use of both consumption and livelihood-based coping strategies, driving more widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in these areas. 

Below-average cross-border staple food supplies from regional neighboring countries.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Below-average cross-border staple food supplies would reduce maize and bean supplies and result in a deficit in the markets, driving staple food prices upward. Above-average staple food prices, in addition to anticipated below-average income levels, would result in significantly reduced household food access and an increasing number of poor households across the country utilizing coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Severely below-average cumulative rainfall during the March – May long rains season. 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Severely below-average rainfall, directly following a below-average OND short rains season, will negatively impact both livestock and agriculture. Pasture and water conditions will not recover from the lean season, further decreasing livestock body conditions and productivity and subsequently impacting milk availability and incomes from livestock sales. Crops planted during the MAM long rains will not have sufficient water for crop development resulting in below average yields which will lower staple grain availability and increase staple food prices. More areas across pastoral and marginal agricultural areas will experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes with an increasing number of households in pastoral areas facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.