Despite flooding, above-average long rains support ongoing drought recovery

• Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through January in the riverine areas of Garissa and Tana River counties after the banks of the River Tana burst following above-average March to May long rains upstream. Resultant flooding affected and displaced about 19,900 and 8,025 households respectively and destroyed cropland and assets impacting household food security with about 33 percent of that population dependent on humanitarian assistance to meet food needs.
• Widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across pastoral and marginal agricultural areas through January due to continued drought recovery driven by above-average livestock sale values, average milk production, and expected near-average long rains harvests. However, these households still engage in negative coping strategies to afford essential non-food expenditures. 
• The areas of highest concern are the IDP (internally displaced persons) settlements in flood-affected areas, particularly in the riverine zones of Garissa and Tana River counties. In June, these riverine zones will return to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as humanitarian assistance decreases and below average short cycle crop harvests become available in July. Pockets of households in Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, Makueni, Kitui and Kilifi counties will experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes towards the end of the scenario period.
• FEWS NET estimates that 2.5 - 3.0 million people will require humanitarian assistance between June and January, particularly in the flood-affected urban and rural areas in the near to short-term and in the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas over the scenario period. Needs are high currently due to flooding impacts and are expected to be high In January during the brief lean season which will be worse than normal due to forecasted atypical dry conditions (including a below-average October to December short rains season) from the shift in ENSO state to La Niña.

Above-average March to May long rains, up to 200 percent of the average in Nairobi, Kisumu, Mandera, and in the riverine zones of Garissa and Tana River counties, resulted in flooding. The flooding affected over 150,000 households, resulting in displacement and death, in addition to the destruction of cropland, water sources, businesses, schools, and health facilities, and livestock deaths. To mitigate the impacts of the floods, both government and non-government agencies provided humanitarian assistance in the form of food and non-food items to approximately 480,000 affected people across the country. Flood-affected households are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to loss of food income sources and displacement.

Currently, pastoral households are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in June following post-drought improvements driven by three consecutive above-average rainfall seasons. In the marginal agricultural areas, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are widespread as food availability is supported by the above-average 2023 short rains harvests that improved household food stocks, reduced staple food prices, and provided agricultural labor opportunities. Staple food prices in May were mixed, with bean prices 31 – 50 percent above the five-year averages across the country. Maize prices shifted between April and May from above-average to below-average in urban and marginal agricultural areas but remained around 20 percent above average in the pastoral areas, constraining household food access. As of May, Water availability remained above average, and return trekking distances for both domestic and livestock water sources were average to below average, except in Garissa and Wajir, where they were above average. Forage conditions remain above the 10-year average across most of the country, except in coastal Kenya and parts of Kitui, Tana River, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, and Turkana counties, where the vegetation greenness is below the average. 

In cropping areas, activities like weeding, top dressing, and limited harvesting have been providing moderate income to households. In pastoral areas, livestock body conditions range from good to very good, and milk production is above average, driven by ongoing lambing and kidding. In addition, livestock and milk sales are providing households with above-average income, reflected in household purchasing power indicated by the goat-to-maize terms-of-trade that was 7 – 70 percent across pastoral areas, which were at least double the averages in Mandera, Isiolo, and Marsabit but 43 percent below the average in Samburu. The main off-own income sources during the March to April period were livestock herding, firewood sales, small business and trade, charcoal sales, charcoal labor, domestic labor, and firewood sales. Households reported that the income obtained from these sources was used mainly for food purchases and education-related expenses. The income faced mixed availability and income levels due to increased competition, government restrictions, high cost of living, poor market access, insecurity, and low incomes.

The government continues to implement safety net programs such as OVC, OPCT, PWSD—CT, and the Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP), which provides at least 2,000 KES (~14 USD) monthly to about 1.25 million targeted households across the country. 

From June 2024 to January 2025, livestock prices and productivity will likely drop in pastoral areas despite slight improvements brought about by the forecast below-average October to December short rains, reducing household food and income levels. Area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will prevail through the scenario period. In marginal agricultural areas, below-average crop production activities during the short rains will slightly improve household income levels, and dwindling household food stocks will increase dependency on markets for food items. Due to low purchasing power, households will apply coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes to meet their food needs.

Learn more

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 01, 2024. Follow these links for additional information: 

• NDMA Early Warning Bulletins
• Food Security Outlook February 2024
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology 
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
• FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis

In Kenya, two rainy seasons significantly influence food security dynamics. The country can be categorized into three main regions: high and medium potential areas in Rift Valley, western and central Kenya, with unimodal and bimodal rainfall patterns; marginal agricultural areas in coastal and southeastern regions; and pastoral areas. Unimodal areas experience a single extended rainy season from February to August, while bimodal areas have two seasons: March to May (long rains) and October to December (short rains). 

High-potential areas and marginal agricultural zones yield over 70% of the annual crop production during the long rains. The long rains, crucial for staple crops like maize, beans, and sorghum, peak in March to May, supporting food availability and market prices with the June harvest. However, variable rainfall can lead to crop failure or stunted growth, and extreme weather can cause flooding, particularly in low-lying areas, disrupting food production and markets. During short rains, farmers plant short-cycle crops like vegetables and pulses, harvested in December and January, and staple crops like maize, harvested from February, which sustain household food supplies into the new year. The short rains are crucial in arid and semi-arid regions. However, these regions often face erratic rainfall, leading to crop failures. In pastoral areas, livestock are essential for food security, relying on rainfall to replenish pastures. Inadequate rainfall harms livestock health and productivity, affecting milk production and increasing migration and resource conflicts. Calving of cows, goats, and camels typically occurs right before the start of the long rains and/or short rains seasons to ensure adequate pasture and water availability. During the reporting period, the peak months of milk availability will be November to December.

The most recent drought, from late 2020 through early 2023, had severe impacts on food security across the country. This prolonged drought, one of the worst in decades, led to significant crop failures and livestock deaths, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. The lack of adequate rainfall drastically reduced agricultural yields, leading to widespread food shortages and soaring prices for staple foods such as maize, beans, and sorghum. The drought also depleted water sources and pastures, impacting pastoral communities that rely heavily on livestock, forcing households to sell off remaining livestock at low prices and undermining their long-term economic stability and resilience to future shocks. As a result, about 4.4 million Kenyans faced increased acute food insecurity by February 2023, which was the highest number of food insecure people the country has had in the last 20 years. Following this peak, there have been three successive above-average rainfall seasons that have driven significant recovery. However, households lost significant assets during the drought period as they attempted to cope and are in the process of recovery, including repayment of debts, restocking of livestock herds, and resuming cropping production. Recently, high inflation and depreciation of the Kenya Shilling drove high costs of living, including prices of both food and non-food items, constraining household purchasing power and food access.

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting outcomes months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is the methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. The starting point for scenario development is a robust analysis of current food security conditions, which is the focus of this section. 

Key guiding principles for FEWS NET’s scenario development process include applying the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assessing acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity is a function of not only hazards (such as a drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to those hazards (for example, the household’s level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both household capacity to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future coping capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET grounds this analysis in a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods, which are the means by which a household meets their basic needs. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

Key hazards 

Rainfall performance: The March to May long rains onset was close to average. In parts of the Rift Valley and the northeastern part of Kenya, the rainfall onset was around 10 days late, with localized areas experiencing an onset of almost a month late. Despite a delayed start, cumulative rainfall has been average to above average across the country, with most of the country receiving rainfall ranging from 110 to 200 percent of the average (Figure 2).

The coastal, western, eastern, and parts of northern Kenya received average rainfall, while some localized areas of coastal Kenya received slightly lower than average rainfall. According to short-range forecasts through mid-June and according to seasonality, average cumulative rainfall is expected in western and coastal Kenya, with none expected in the eastern parts of the country.

Flooding: In April, heavy rainfall resulted in flooding across the country. The impacts were most significant in flood-prone and riverine areas, driven by high soil moisture accumulated over consecutive above-average rainfall seasons since the 2023 March to May long rains. According to flood update reports by the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) and UNOCHA, the flooding affected 43 counties, about 96,000 households, and displaced about 53,000 households. Approximately 61,000 acres of cropland were destroyed and 11,300 livestock deaths have been reported. Significant infrastructure damage included the destruction of 67 roads and about 2,500 water sources, impacting businesses, schools, and health facilities. The most affected counties were Nairobi, Kisumu, Mandera, Garissa, and Tana River counties, which had over 41,000 flood-affected households, about 43 percent of the total affected households across the country. The Kenyan government evacuated people living in riparian areas, a majority of whom are urban poor, increasing the number of IDPs sheltering in camps, schools, and other makeshift shelters. 

Staple food prices:  According to the Ministry of Agriculture wholesale price data, bean prices have remained stable since February 2024 due to improved local harvests and above-average imports from Uganda. Prices range from 13,500 – 16,200 Kes per 90-kilogram bag and are 31 – 50 percent above the five-year average in localized areas due to below-average local production caused by waterlogging of soils and high demand. Retail bean prices are within average and range from 108 – 144 KES per kilogram but range from 16 - 27 percent above the five-year averages. In May, maize prices continued to decline and were 8 – 22 percent below the five-year averages across urban and marginal agricultural areas (Figure 3). Across the pastoral areas, maize prices were 9 – 36 percent above the five-year average due to high demand driven by low household food stocks, demand for humanitarian assistance by flood-affected households, and improved purchasing power supported by high goat prices. Overall, above-average staple food prices constrain household food access across marginal and pastoral areas.

Water source conditions: Driven by consecutive seasons of above-average rainfall, water and forage conditions have improved significantly since the drought. In May, households were travelling apprimately 1 – 4 kilometers to collect water for domestic use, which is below the five-year average (except in Kwale where the distance is 63 percent above the average due to an insufficient number reservoirs). According to the USGS Water Point Viewer, the satellite monitored water points are mostly classified as “good” and have water levels above the median. However, some water points in central and southern Marsabit are classified as “watch” and were between 50 – 100 percent of the median due to insufficient recharge during the long rains season. 

Return trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources for livestock are stable or trending downward, except in Marsabit and Garissa where they are rising due to progressive depletion of water sources where relatively lower recharge of water sources occurred. Distances range from approximately 3 – 10 kilometers and are below the five-year averages boosted by the recent above-average rainfall seasons that recharged water sources including surface water sources such as ponds and dams that are easily accessible to livestock. 

Forage conditions: According to the satellite-derived eVIIRS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) imagery (Figure 4), vegetation greenness is above the 2012-2021 average across most of the country. However, in coastal Kenya and parts of Kitui, Tana River, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, and Turkana counties it is lower than the 10-year average, driven by below-average rainfall, high temperatures, and high evapotranspiration rates. 

Crop production: Rainfall in April cues planting of the long rains seasonal crops. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the area planted with maize during the long rains season is estimated at 1.67 million hectares, within the 2024 target and 5 – 10 percent above the five-year average. However, this year, the availability of food and income from crop production will be limited due to the impacts of the recent flooding. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the flooding affected about 168,092 hectares of cropland and related enterprises across 26 counties. In high and medium rainfall areas, maize crop conditions in June were reported as favorable and not damaged by the heavy rains that occurred in April and May except in Nyando, Nyakach, and Kisumu Central sub-counties of Kisumu affected by flash floods. The central, Tana River, and southeastern regions also reported waterlogging and flooding, hindering normal crop development. Certified maize seed was expensive, with a 2-kilogram pack retailing at 900-950 KES, which drove a large portion of farmers to plant local seeds instead. Heavy leaching and waterlogging are likely to reduce the expected yields across these areas. The bean crop is in the flowering stages and doing well in areas not affected by flash floods in the western and Nyanza regions. The crop was, however, affected by the heavy rains in April and is yellowing in most counties due to waterlogging. In marginal agricultural areas, the most commonly planted crops are millet, cowpeas, green grams, sorghum, maize, beans, pigeon peas, and cowpeas, which are in good condition and are mostly past the knee-high/flowering stage. However, in Kwale and Makueni counties, crops are in fair to good conditions due to waterlogging and dry spells. Crops are in poor condition in Kilifi due to dry spells in the crucial early stages of development. Primary activities on farms across the country are weeding, pest control, top dressing, and harvesting vegetables, which is providing households income.

Livestock production: In pastoral areas, livestock production continues to improve, driven by above-average forage and water conditions. According to NDMA data, livestock body conditions are fair to good in Turkana, Isiolo, and Garissa counties and range from good to very good across the rest of the pastoral counties. Livestock remain in wet season grazing areas close to homesteads providing milk to households and improved food access through sale. Except in Samburu, where cattle from the Suguta, Loosuk, and upper parts of the Poro wards are grazing away from homesteads due to cattle rustling. According to the KFSSG 2023 Short Rains Assessment, herd sizes are within average ranges in Samburu and Tana River and are below average across the rest of the country. Low herd sizes limit livestock sales as households try to replenish their stocks post-drought. NDMA May early warning bulletins confirm that disease surveillance teams remain on high alert for Rift Valley Fever (RVF) following high rainfall and flooding. In Turkana, an outbreak of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) affecting cattle was reported in Kibish suspected to originate from cattle migrating back from South Sudan and Ethiopia. Lastly, an upsurge of Sheep and Goat Pox (SGP), Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Peste des petit ruminants (PPR), and tick paralysis was observed in Garissa.Ongoing calving, kidding, and lambing have improved milk availability, with milk production stable or trending upwards, ranging from 26 – 80 percent above average except in Marsabit and Samburu, where the production was 25 and 60 percent below average, respectively. Similarly, milk consumption is stable or increasing monthly. Overall, consumption is above average across pastoral areas, but below the average in Samburu, Garissa, and Marsabit. 

Off-own-farm income: Across arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), data collected from March to April 2024 through key informant interviews on household's off-own farm income (OOFI) indicate an increase in the use of off-own income for non-food expenditures, such as education. In pastoral areas, the most important sources of income during the reference period were livestock herding, firewood sales, and charcoal sales, which are mostly used for food expenditure. Households earned 2,500 – 7,700 KES (~19.5-60.1USD) monthly from livestock herding, which remained stable during the reference period, but it was reported that livestock herding opportunities were below average compared to a typical year due to insecurity, low incomes, and poor market access. Firewood sales are earning households 116 – 1,025 KES (~0.9 – 8 USD) per bundle, which is the same as last year. Households earning income from small business and trade reported below-average availability of opportunities caused by a shortage of labor. Charcoal sales provided households with above average income from increased demand driven by the rains that limited production, increased competition, increased regulation of charcoal trade and competing firewood collection. In marginal agricultural areas, the most important income sources during the reference period are charcoal labor, charcoal sales, domestic labor, and firewood sales. Charcoal labor is the main source of income, earning households between 475 -1,055 KES (3.7 - 8.2 USD) daily wage in the coastal and southeast marginal agricultural areas, respectively, and was above average due to a favorable market, high cost of living, reduced availability and insecurity. The price of charcoal is above average due to reduced supplies caused by ongoing rains, government regulations on production and sale, scarcity of wood, and increased demand. Income earned from domestic labor was above average compared to a typical year driven by a high cost of living, inflation, and the devaluation of currency.

Market supplies: Maize and bean supplies in local markets increased significantly in the January to March 2024 quarter, attributed to above-average 2023 long rains harvests and short rains harvests. According to the East Africa Crossborder Trade Bulletin, above-average maize and beans harvests in Uganda have also helped improve supplies and lowered prices. Uganda produced about 70 – 90 percent of the maize and beans traded within the region, with Kenya importing about 90 percent of the maize and 80 percent of the beans traded. The harvests from Uganda were available at lower prices than in 2023 contributing to within average range staple grain prices in May. However, bean prices remained slightly above the five-year average, driven by sustained demand in both Kenya and Uganda due to consecutive below-average production seasons, high production and transport costs, and the lingering impacts of currency depreciation and inflation.

Household purchasing power: Livestock prices in pastoral areas are atypically high, driven by average to above-average livestock body conditions and low herd sizes. Goat prices are 13 – 76 percent above the five-year average across most pastoral areas, and even up to twice the average in Marsabit, Mandera, and Isiolo counties. Household purchasing power, indicated by the goat-to-maize terms-of-trade, ranged from 39-123 kilograms of maize purchased per goat sold (Figure 5). Which, when compared to the five-year average, was above average across most pastoral areas. Even with the high terms of trade, below-average herd sizes in most counties continue to restrict the number of livestock available for sale, constraining household purchasing power and therefore food access. 

Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that information on food assistance is highly variable across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance); see report Annex. In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Other types of assistance (e.g., livelihoods or nutrition assistance; social safety net programs) are incorporated elsewhere in FEWS NET’s broader analysis, as applicable. 

Government safety net programs such as OVC, OPCT, and PWSD – CT providing at least 2,000 KES (~14 USD) monthly to about one million targeted households across the country. The Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP) implemented by NDMA continues to provide 5,400 KES (~42 USD) every two months to at least 125,000 households in Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, and Samburu counties. In response to the recent flooding, the National and County governments, together with humanitarian agencies, have provided humanitarian assistance in the form of food and non-food interventions reaching approximately 480,000 flood-affected people across the country. In addition to the establishment of a Flood Emergency Response Command Centre (responsible for reporting and coordinating a response to flood emergencies), relevant government ministries have put in place various intervention measures including enhancing surveillance for vector-borne diseases, issuing a high alert in anticipation of possible disease outbreaks, and pre-positioning essential medical and non-medical supplies.

Based on the analysis of food security conditions, FEWS NET then assesses the extent to which households are able to meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change; FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, with a focus on assessing if these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity rather than other non-food-related factors. Ultimately, FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.

Pastoral areas: Households are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in June following post-drought improvements driven by consecutive above-average rainfall seasons. However, households in flood-affected areas are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. In most pastoral areas, despite above-average goat-to-maize terms of trade and milk production, household income and food levels remain limited due to low herd sizes and the high cost of living. In flood affected areas households are applying consumption strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3), such as skipping meals, reducing the number of meals eaten, reducing food portion sizes, sending children to eat elsewhere, and reducing adults' portions in favor of children to meet essential food needs. Overall, levels of acute malnutrition are gradually improving, as evidenced by a lower proportion of children at risk of acute malnutrition (MUAC<135mm) for January to May 2024 compared to the same period the previous year. This is due to improved food access after the 2023 harvests, increased milk consumption, and sustained humanitarian assistance in food, nutrition, and health services. However, in the month of May, despite the proportion of children at risk of acute malnutrition remaining 20 – 59 percent below the five-year averages across most of the pastoral areas, in Garissa, Samburu, and Turkana, they are 16, 35, and 193 percent higher than the five-year average, indicating a sustained atypical high level of acute malnutrition partly driven by impacts of floods on food availability and access.

Marginal agricultural areas: In June, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are driven by dwindling household food stocks from the 2023 short rains harvests as households await the next harvest and below-average income from below-average crop production activities due to erratic rainfall and the destruction of crops by recent flooding. Food consumption score (FCS) trends are improving and indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or better driven by available household food stocks and below-average staple food prices across most areas. However, in Makueni, Nyeri (Kieni) and Kwale, they are indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and in Kwale FCS was deteriorating as household stocks dwindled atypically early. The coping strategy index (CSI) was mostly indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) except in Makueni and Taita Taveta, where it was indicative of Minimal (IPC Phase 1). Stability and increases in milk production continue to drive improvements in the nutrition status of children under five, with the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition ranging from none to u pto 70 percent below the five-year average across marginal areas, except in Kitui and Makueni counties where it was 25 – 35 percent below the average due to below average milk production. 

The next step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

National assumptions

• The El Niño ENSO state has transitioned to neutral, and La Niña is expected to become the dominant ENSO state in mid-2024 (most likely between June and August). 
• Above-average temperatures are most likely from June through at least September 2024. The warmer-than-normal temperatures (3-6 degrees Celsius above average) expected throughout the scenario period are likely to drive faster evaporation rates from open water sources and soil, and evapotranspiration from plants. 
• Based on the expectation of a transition to La Niña, the February to August long rains in unimodal Kenya are expected to be above average. The October to December 2024 cumulative rainfall will likely be below average. However, uncertainty exists given the long lead time, expectations for emerging La Niña conditions, and conflicting ensemble forecasts.
• An above-average long rains season is likely to support above-average availability of water and forage resources in both pastoral and marginal areas through at least December, except in the pastoral northwest in Turkana, West Pokot, and Baringo counties where due to below average current conditions, forage conditions are likely to deteriorate to below-average levels by August. 
• Above-average rangeland conditions have driven near-complete to complete recovery of body condition and productivity in all livestock species in both pastoral and marginal areas. Livestock production in terms of body conditions, births, milk, and meat production is expected to be average to above average through at least December. From January, livestock productivity is expected to decline to below-average levels.
• Households affected and displaced by the widespread April flooding are likely to continue depending on humanitarian assistance in the form of both food and non-food items (NFIs) to aid in short to medium-term recovery. In particular, flood-affected households located in riverine and low-income urban areas of Kisumu, Nairobi, Garissa, and Tana River counties are likely to require humanitarian assistance at least through August. 
• According to FEWS NET price projections, wholesale maize prices in the Nairobi urban market are expected to range from 3,800 – 4,600 KES per 90-kilogram bag for the scenario period, which is 5 – 15 percent above the five-year averages. Wholesale dry bean prices in the Nairobi urban reference market are expected to follow seasonal trends but at elevated levels ranging from 11,100 – 13,600 KES, which is 14 - 27 percent above the five-year averages due to low opening stocks, depreciating currency, and high production and marketing costs. 
• Nutrition outcomes are likely to improve from June through January 2025 due to expected stability in food and income access from enhanced crop and livestock production due to the cumulative impact of the above-average short and long rains in 2023 and 2024. Despite the expected improvement, the Critical (GAM 15-29.9%) levels of acute malnutrition will likely be sustained through January 2025 in Wajir, Garissa, Mandera, and Turkana counties, and North Horr and Laisamis sub-counties of Marsabit and Tiaty Sub County in Baringo County. The Critical level of acute malnutrition will likely be sustained by the persistent impact of the recent prolonged drought, high food prices, high morbidity, and frequent disease outbreaks that slow recovery.

Pastoral areas

• Though expected to improve during the ongoing kidding and calving season and the next season beginning in November, livestock herd sizes are expected to remain below average. Lower than average livestock births are expected from November due to forecast La Niña conditions that will impact livestock gestation and the survival of newborns.
• Livestock migration is expected to be below normal through December due to available water and forage resources that maintain return trekking distances at below-average to average distances. 
• Above-average body conditions and lower-than-average herd sizes amidst high demand are expected to keep livestock prices above average through the scenario period.
• Al-Shabaab violence is expected to remain at current elevated levels in the Garissa province and other border areas with Somalia in the coming months due to an ongoing military offensive in central and southern Somalia that is pushing al-Shabaab into hideouts in the Kenya-Somalia border regions. Al-Shabaab is expected to conduct attacks against Kenyan security forces in response to their involvement in the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and to project power through low-level attacks to counter the perception that the Somali military offensive has decreased their capabilities. Fighting in the border areas of Wajjr County may increase depending on whether al-Shabaab attempts to capture the Geriley base, located just over the border in Somalia’s Gedo region.

Cropping Areas

• In July, long rains crop production in marginal agricultural areas is expected to be below average due to erratic rains and damage caused by flooding in April. In the high and medium potential areas of western Kenya and the Rift Valley, likely below-average short rains and higher-than-average temperatures are expected to reduce income from crop production activities and short-cycle crop harvests in December for products such as beans and vegetables. 

Tana River Riverine Livelihood Zone in Tana River and Garissa Counties

• Following the significant destruction of cropped areas and irrigation structures by flash floods in April and May, the long rains crop harvest in July will be significantly below average. Given that the short rains are likely to be below average and the limited capacity of the affected households to recover from the impacts of the historic flooding, a second consecutive significantly below-average production is expected at the end of the scenario period in February 2025.
• From July, poor households will earn significantly below-average incomes from crop sales throughout the scenario period due to the below-average long rains production. To narrow the income gaps, poor households are likely to increase their reliance on off-own-farm income sources such as the production and sale of charcoal and firewood through late October when agricultural wage labor becomes available.
• The retail prices of maize in the critical source market of Garissa are expected to follow the seasonal price trends but at elevated levels due to increasing demand following the destruction of the long rains crop by floods, high marketing costs, and expected supply deficits from the likely below-average short rains production in the Southeastern marginal agricultural areas and the central highlands. Throughout the scenario period, the retail maize prices are projected to be 18 percent to 32 percent above the five-year average.
• Goat prices in the Garissa market are expected to follow the seasonal trends but at elevated levels, driven by a lower-than-normal market supply as households rebuild their herds. The prices will range between 45 to 65 percent above the five-year averages throughout the scenario period. 
• The risk of waterborne and water-related diseases such as dysentery, diarrhea, and cholera will likely remain elevated during the scenario period due to increased chances of water contamination following the recent flooding that led to the collapse of sanitation facilities such as latrines.
• With no planned, likely, and funded humanitarian assistance programs for the scenario period in place, it is likely that the poor households significantly affected by the historic floods will continue to engage in unsustainable coping strategies. 
• It is likely that the prevalence of acute malnutrition among children aged five years and below will increase gradually, driven by reduced food access and increased disease prevalence, including diarrhea, cholera, and malaria, following the extensive flooding that resulted in water contamination and destruction of sanitation facilities.  

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumption

• The Kenya Red Cross 2024 March – April  - May Rains Floods Update estimates that out of the more than 100,000 households affected by the widespread flooding, approximately 29,000 households have received humanitarian assistance in the form of food assistance and health outreaches while 13,000 of the 55,000 displaced households received shelter non-food items. It is anticipated that a significant proportion of households affected by drought and floods will not receive humanitarian assistance and will face increasing food insecurity throughout the scenario period.  

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. 

Pastoral areas: In June, forage and water availability peak, supporting high livestock productivity. Subsequently, above-average livestock body conditions and milk availability support average to above-average income generation from milk and livestock sales. Despite a forecast of abnormally dry conditions, livestock are likely to remain in wet season grazing areas through at least mid-August, providing households with milk for consumption and sale and maintaining households' access to income. From late August through September, livestock migration is expected to increase as water and forage levels decline, with the increasing return trekking distances reducing household’s access to milk. Livestock body conditions are expected to decline seasonally but remain above normal, with livestock prices remaining above average supporting household purchasing power despite high staple food prices and low herd sizes. Drought recovery from previous above-average seasons will mitigate the worst impacts of the lean season and the impacts of La Niña such as atypically high temperatures and drier conditions. However, to meet essential food needs, households will continue utilizing negative consumption and livelihood coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Levels of acute malnutrition rates are likely to remain high due to high food prices and high seasonal morbidity levels. 

Dry conditions will persist until the short rains begin in October, bringing some improvements in forage and water availability. Livestock body conditions will improve slightly; however, the livestock that migrated are likely to remain in the dry-season areas, leaving only the milking herd comprising of only a few animals producing below-average amounts of milk. Despite average conception during the rainy season, abnormally dry conditions may result in abortions, death of newborns, and a reduction in milk production. Livestock body conditions are likely to gradually deteriorate, reducing their sale value and reducing household purchasing power, particularly given the expected above-average staple food prices during the period. To meet food needs, households will utilize consumption coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions through December. In January, further deterioration in rangeland resources and livestock productivity is expected to reduce household milk availability and overall food access as livestock prices trend downward. As livestock prices drop, increased livestock migration will constrain household milk access for consumption and sale, reducing household food and income, with more households in Garissa, Turkana, and Marsabit facing food consumption gaps and deteriorating into Crisis (IPC Phase 3).Through January 2025, acute malnutrition levels are expected to be at Serious (GAM 10-14.9%) levels across most pastoral areas but at Critical (GAM 15-29.9%) levels in Wajir, Garissa, Mandera, Turkana, Marsabit, and Baringo counties due to the lingering impact of the recent prolonged drought, high food prices, frequent disease outbreaks, and chronic factors such as poor health-seeking behavior, poor child-feeding practices, poverty, and limited access to safe water, sanitation, health, and nutrition services.

Marginal agricultural areas: The green harvest in June will be slightly below average but will begin to improve household food access, which will further improve in July with the long rains harvest. Income will also improve as households engage in harvesting, casual labor, and crop sales through August. However, for households that could not afford agricultural inputs or were affected by flooding, poor crop performance will lead to below-average harvests and resultant below average food and income. Affected households are likely to see their household food stocks depleted by early to mid-August and rely on markets atypically early to meet essential food needs. Despite below-average staple food prices, declining casual labor opportunities due to drier conditions will cause households to increasingly rely on off-own farm income that will likely be below average due to increased competition. Households will utilize consumption and livelihood-based coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2), such as reducing meal frequency, reducing meal portion sizes, sending household members to eat elsewhere, spending savings, borrowing money, and selling productive household assets. 

In October, land preparation and planting will marginally improve household income, albeit limited by forecasts of a below-average short rains season. Having depleted the previous season’s food stocks, households will turn to markets to obtain food however, low purchasing power will force them to apply both consumption and livelihood-based coping strategies such as skipping meals, reducing meal portions, and sending children to eat elsewhere, borrowing money, spending savings, purchasing food on credit and selling productive assets indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to meet essential food needs. The below-average rains will result in reduced cropping activities, including the amount of land planted, weeding opportunities, and below-average harvests of short-cycle crops such as legumes and vegetables in December. Malnutrition levels are expected to improve slightly due to the increased food and milk availability and Alert (GAM 5-9.9%) levels are likely to be sustained across marginal areas. In parts of Makueni, Kitui, and Kilifi counties, due to forecasted poor crop production, low food availability and income sources will only be able to meet their food needs by applying unsustainable coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a crediblealternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

Below-average crop production in the high and medium rainfall areas of Rift Valley, central and western Kenya.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: The harvest from the high and medium rainfall areas makes up 70 percent of the total annual harvest and is critical for supplying markets across the country with maize and beans and seasonally driving staple food prices downwards. A below-average harvest will drive prices upwards as demand outstrips supply. The above-average prices will constrain household food access, and households will increase utilization of consumption and livelihood-based coping strategies, deteriorating into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. 

Widespread outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: A widespread outbreak of Rift Valley Fever across the pastoral areas, would significantly impact the livestock sector, particularly from July onwards, as livestock weaken throughout the lean period. An RVF outbreak would result in livestock deaths, depleting pastoral households’ assets and the loss of an important source of food and income. A widespread outbreak would likely result in an increase in the number of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with the worst affected households likely to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). 

Tana River Riverine Livelihood Zone in Tana River and Garissa Counties

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: If the October to December short rains are above average, crop production is likely to be average in December and January. Consequently, household reliance on market purchases will significantly decline. At the same time, households will earn average to above average income from crop sales, in addition to income from agricultural wage labor opportunities, like weeding and harvesting. In addition, household milk availability and income from milk sales are likely to improve. Improved food availability and incomes will decrease the number of households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. 

Tana River Riverine Livelihood Zone in Tana River and Garissa Counties (Figure 6)

Reason for selecting this area: [The Tana River Riverine Livelihood Zone is an area of concern following flash floods reported in April and May. These floods were the third consecutive event, following floods reported in November 2023 and February 2024, and were the most destructive in recent history. FEWS NET has selected this area to illustrate the impacts of the historic floods amid recovery from a protracted drought.]

The flash floods reported along the Tana River Riverine Livelihood Zone in late April and May were the third consecutive event, following the floods that were reported in November 2023 and February 2024, and have been the most destructive in recent times. The floods were in part caused by a rapid increase in the volume of water in the Tana River following heavy rainfall in the central highlands around Mt Kenya in late March and early April. They were also in part due to the release of excess water from reservoirs of the Seven Folks hydroelectric dams upstream. According to the Kenya Interagency Rapid Assessment (KIRA) survey conducted by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS), WFP, UNICEF, Concern Worldwide, Action Against Hunger (ACF), World Vision Kenya, and other partner agencies, the flooding destroyed several key roads and bridges resulting in supply disruptions of essential food and non-food commodities to the markets and subsequent short-lived price hikes. According to NDMA May bulletins, maize prices were 15 percent above the five-year average in Tana River and 36 percent above the five-year average in Garissa.

Displaced households are slowly returning to their farms as the flood waters continue to recede but are facing significant challenges in resettling following the destruction of houses. According to initial reports by UNOCHA, around 6,400 households along the riverine zone in Garissa county were displaced and were hosted in 12 camps established by the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS). In Tana River, around 69,965 people were affected by the flooding, and the displaced were in 38 IDP sites hosting 1,625 families displaced (8,125 people). According to the Garissa County Commissioners office, out of the nearly 7,000 households that were displaced, only around 4,600 households remain in temporary camps, with the rest having moved back to their homesteads. In Tana River, KRCS indicates that around 10,576 households remain in camps, especially in the Tana Delta, where the flood waters are yet to recede.

Limited food availability, access, and limited incomes impact food consumption and dietary diversity among flood-affected households. According to NDMA monthly bulletins, in Garissa approximately 30 percent of poor households had borderline FCS indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3), in May. In Tana River, approximately 40 percent of poor households had borderline FCS indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in May. Across the livelihood zone, poor households relied on less preferred or less expensive food, reducing the portion size of meals and reducing the number of meals eaten per day. In particular, flood-affected households are employing coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3), such as withdrawing children from school and reducing health-related expenditures, and the worst affected households employing those indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4), such as migrating with the entire household. Based on the 2023 October to December Short Rains 2023 IPC Analysis, the level of acute malnutrition in Tana River is Serious (GAM 10-14.9%) and Critical (GAM 15-29.9%) in Garissa. According to the NDMA April surveillance data, the proportion of children at risk of acute malnutrition (MUAC<135mm) is 8 percent above the five-year average in Tana River and 10 percent above average in Garissa.

Following the historic floods, the incidence of waterborne diseases such as Cholera, E. Coli, Dysentery, and Diarrhea are atypically high due to the contamination of water sources and the destruction of pit latrines. According to the Ministry of Public Health in Tana River County, a cholera outbreak is still active, with around 60 confirmed cases so far and three fatalities. The ministry also estimates that the latrine coverage has declined significantly.

Humanitarian assistance provided in May and June, at the height of the flooding, prevented worse outcomes among the affected households, resulting in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) area-level outcomes. In Tana River County, only 4,750 households received one-off food assistance out of the nearly 10,576 households displaced, around 45 percent of the total population currently in IDP camps. The KRCS, through the Safaricom M-Pesa foundation, distributed 15 kgs of maize, 3 kgs of green grams, 3 kgs of Cornsoyblend (CSB), and one liter of vegetable oil each to 2,000 households. Another 1,000 households received 10 kgs of maize, 3 kgs of green grams, 3 kgs of CSB, and one liter of vegetable oil. In late May, the Tawfiq Foundation distributed 10 kgs of maize, 3 kgs of rice, 2 kgs of beans, and three liters of vegetable oil to 1,750 households. In Garissa, 600 out of 6,400 displaced households received one-off food assistance. Supkem, in conjunction with KRCS, distributed 10 kgs of maize flour, 1.5 kgs of Wheat flour, 8kgs of CSB, 1 kg of green grams, one kg of beans, and one liter of vegetable oil each to 400 displaced households. The Muslim Preachers organization provided 6 kgs of maize flour to 200 households. In addition, World Vision Kenya provided a cash transfer of 10,800 KES to 4,081 households in Tana River, while the Pastoralists Girls Initiative provided cash transfers to 695 households in Garissa. Overall, over 30 percent of the total population in the livelihood zone received humanitarian assistance. 

Between June and September, household food availability and access will be limited following the destruction of long rains crops and limited income opportunities, maintaining moderately wide food consumption gaps. Even with the ongoing planting of the short cycle legumes such as green grams, chances of a good harvest are minimal given that it falls within the July to October lean season when there is no rainfall. Household incomes from crop sales, agricultural wage labor opportunities, and milk sales are likely to be below average due to a lack of household stocks, minimal agricultural activities, and declining livestock productivity. Alternative income sources, such as the production and sale of firewood and charcoal and remittances, will not be enough to cover the income deficits. Although households are expected to rely heavily on markets for food supplies, purchasing capacities will be limited by below-average incomes, resulting in deteriorating food consumption and dietary diversity. These households are likely to engage in consumption-coping strategies such as borrowing food or relying on help from friends and restricting consumption by adults so that small children can eat and livelihood-coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) such as selling productive assets, reduced expenses on both human and veterinary health and decrease expenditure on farm inputs. As a result, it is likely that at least one in five households will be able to marginally meet minimum food needs but through crisis-coping strategies and be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

Between October and January, household income from agricultural wage labor and the availability of the below-average short rains production will gradually improve household food availability and access. Demand for agricultural wage labor by better-off and middle-income households during land preparation, planting, weeding, and harvesting will improve household incomes, which, in addition to near-average incomes from milk sales and remittances, incomes will gradually improve the purchasing capacities of the flood affected households and therefore their access to food. Given the limited capacities of the affected households to repair irrigation infrastructures and acquire other agricultural inputs, and the limited prospects of seed availability, the area planted will be below average. Which, combined with a below average short rains forecast, will result in below-average short rains harvest in January. From December onwards, the availability of the green harvest will gradually reduce the reliance on the market for food. Gradually, household food consumption and dietary diversity will improve, driven by improvements in incomes and availability of both green harvests in December and dry harvests from January. However, given the significant impacts of the floods and the typical slow rate of recovery, the flood-affected households are unlikely to recover completely and will continue to employ consumption coping strategies such as relying on less preferred foods and limiting the meal portion sizes and likelihood-coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) such as consuming immature crops, and reducing expenses on health and veterinary care. The slight improvements in food availability and access are expected to mitigate severe deterioration in the prevalence of acute malnutrition and sustain Serious (GAM 10-14.9%) in Tana River and Critical (GAM 15-29.9%) in Garissa. In addition, chronic factors, including poor child feeding and care practices, high illiteracy and poverty levels, and low access to health services, will likely slow the improvement of wasting levels. Consequently, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) area-level outcomes are likely for the duration of the reporting period.