Upcoming long rains are expected to further support drought recovery

• In the pastoral areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) area-level outcomes are ongoing as households recover from the historic drought and subsequent flooding in late 2023. Forage and water resources have significantly improved following the above-average 2023 October to December short rains, supporting the recovery of livestock production. Livestock sale values are above average, and household income and food access are improving, but milk production remains below average as livestock gradually recover. The forecast of above-average March to May 2024 long rains will drive further improvements as livestock birth rates increase and good livestock body conditions provide milk for sale, consumption, and income from livestock sales. Increased income will improve food access and reduce household reliance on coping strategies, supporting area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through at least September.
• In the marginal agricultural areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist as the above average short rains harvests improved household food availability and income. Further improvements are expected in March as the near-average to above-average long rains support crop production activities that will provide income from agricultural wage labor opportunities through May. Increased household income and availability of household food stocks are expected to support households' access to food, but the high cost of living and need to repay past debts will likely hinder non-food purchases, maintaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2) area-level outcomes. 
• The recently concluded Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) 2023 Short Rains Assessment findings indicate household access to food and income is improving following the historic drought and flooding in late 2023. The number of children aged 6 to 59 months facing the risk of acute malnutrition is declining but remains high, particularly in arid counties due to the lingering cumulative effects of the five previous consecutive failed seasons, poor child feeding practices, and high disease burden, among others. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes remain in Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu, and Garissa due to low herd sizes, high food prices, destruction from flooding, and limited access to income. However, household access to food and income is expected to improve with the short rains harvest and the upcoming March to May long rains. 
• National crop production in 2023 was 15 to 20 percent higher than the five-year average for maize, boosted by significantly above-average short rains, while nationally, the bean harvest was average due to waterlogging from the above-average rainfall in late 2023. Crop production in the arid and semi-arid lands was mixed with the pastoral areas, registering below-average production of maize and cowpeas. However, in the marginal agricultural areas, maize, sorghum, cowpeas, and green grams production was 16 to 68 percent above average, driven by above-average rainfall and available subsidized fertilizers. 

Current Situation

Rainfall performance: The 2023 October to December short rains were well above the 40-year average across much of Kenya and upwards of 200 percent of the 40-year average in the coastal region, northeastern Kenya, the northern and eastern parts of Marsabit, and southern parts of Kitui and Tana River where the rainy season was the wettest to third wettest in history However, in northwestern Kenya, including western Marsabit, cumulative rainfall was 90 to 110 percent of the 40-year average, with southern Marsabit and localized parts of Marsabit, Baringo, Bungoma, and Elgeyo Marakwet receiving 45 to 90 percent of the 40-year average (Figure 1).

Flooding impacts: The above-average short rains resulted in widespread flooding across the country, resulting in the loss of property, cropland, access to livelihoods, schools, hospitals, and markets and the destruction of infrastructure. The flooding also impeded the transportation of humanitarian assistance to flood-affected areas. However, government and humanitarian partners could access affected areas after the flooding subsided in mid-December. The floods resulted in the displacement of around 109,580 households who were sheltered in 179 camps across the affected areas and about 175 human deaths. There were an estimated 5,200 livestock deaths, mostly in northeastern Kenya. Approximately 85,000 acres of cropland were flooded, with 70 percent of the flooded cropland located in the coastal region. About 8,000 schools were impacted, disrupting student welfare and learning activities, especially students sitting for the national exams. Additionally, more than 50 health facilities across 15 counties were affected. At the same time, around 275 cholera cases and four deaths were recorded in Lamu and Tana River counties, resulting in Cholera Treatment Units (CTUs) being established in the main county hospitals. Flooding and damage to the major roads for Garissa, Isiolo, Lamu, Tana River, Wajir, Mandera, and Marsabit counties led to humanitarian actors utilizing air transportation to reach affected households; however, airstrips in Garissa, Marsabit, Lamu, and Mandera counties were also flooded and unsuitable for use by aircraft at the time. However, the roads and airstrips reopened after the floodwaters subsided in mid-December. The energy sector was also impacted by several incidences of destruction and disruption of power infrastructure in Marsabit, Kajiado, Trans Nzoia counties, and the Coast region, with persistent power outages impacting hospitals, schools, manufacturing, and household's daily routines during the rainy season.

Crop production: The 2023 long rains maize harvest from the high and medium rainfall areas started in October 2023 and improved market supplies nationwide. Successive above-average harvests have improved the national maize supply and helped stabilize and lower prices. However, maize prices are around 15 to nearly 60 percent higher than the five-year average. National maize production in 2023 was 3.34 million metric tons (MMT), around 5 to 10 percent higher than the five-year average, supported by above-average rainfall and subsidized fertilizer that boosted production. Similarly, the 2023 long rains bean harvest was 0.56 MMT, around 5 to 10 percent above average. Preliminary national 2023 short rains crop production estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that maize production is expected to be around 80 percent higher than the five-year average, driven by the above-average October to December short rains. However, annual bean production in 2023 is around 10 percent lower than the five-year average as the above-average rainfall destroyed the bean crop in some areas and affected crop growth. 

According to the recently conducted KFSSG 2023 Short Rains Assessment, crop production was 27 to 68 percent higher than the five-year average in the southeastern areas, while in the coastal areas, it was 16 to 43 percent higher than the five-year average. Production in the coastal areas was affected by flooding that destroyed cropland and was impacted by Fall Armyworm (FAW) and the Diamondback moth. 

Livestock milk production: In the pastoral areas, livestock are still in the wet season grazing areas close to homesteads, which keeps milk, an important source of food and income, accessible to pastoral households. According to the SRA findings, livestock birth rates, especially cattle and camels, are generally below average across the pastoral areas as livestock herds gradually recover from the historic drought. However, birth rates will begin improving following the good conception rates ahead of the 2023 short rains. In the meantime, livestock herd sizes remain below average because of the cumulative impact of consecutive droughts, disease, predation, slaughter, and sale. Many poor households’ herds are around half what they were before the historic drought. Current tropical livestock units (TLUs)¹ for poor pastoral households range from two to three compared to four to seven normally; however, in Marsabit and Isiolo, the TLUs are currently zero to one compared to two to four normally. The small herd sizes limit household access to income from livestock sales as households seek to avoid losing additional livestock. 

According to the NDMA sentinel site data, milk production is mostly on an upward trend except in Garissa and Turkana, where milk production is declining due to the goats and sheep being pregnant and camels and cows yet to give birth and poor forage conditions. Milk production ranges from 0.5 to 2.6 liters per household per day compared to 0.9- 3.5 liters per household per day normally,  around 35 to 70 percent of the five-year average in Wajir, Marsabit, Garissa, and Samburu, with milk production around 35 to 40 percent higher than the five-year average in Isiolo and Turkana, and more than twice the five-year average in Mandera due to the calving and kidding of goats, sheep, and goats, and good body conditions. Consequently, in many pastoral areas, household milk consumption reflects livestock production, with most pastoral households consuming 0.3 to 1.8 liters per household per day compared to 0.5 to 2.8 liters per household per day normally. Milk consumption trends are mostly stable or upward, except in Turkana, Marsabit, and Samburu, where milk consumption is declining seasonally as livestock are pregnant and there are below-normal forage and water resources. 

Water availability:  The SRA findings and January NDMA sentinel site bulletins indicate that the main water sources in use across the pastoral areas are (traditional) wells, boreholes, springs, rivers, shallow wells, and water pans. Most open water sources are at 90 to 100 percent capacity, with over 80 percent of the sources currently holding adequate water volumes and expected to last for two to four months. However, the Isiolo River is at lower than normal levels due to over-extraction for irrigation upstream, while water pans in Turkana South and parts of Samburu East are at 10 to 30 percent of their capacity due to a lack of adequate rainfall for recharge, poor design, breaching of walls, high siltation, and poor construction, and likely to last for one to two months, which is not normal for this time of year.

In January, households travel around 2 to 8.6 kilometers to access water for domestic use. Compared to the five-year average, households travel around 50 percent shorter distances to similar distances due to good recharge during the short rains. The improvement in water access is reducing households' time fetching water and increasing the amount of time available to engage in other livelihood activities. However, in parts of Marsabit and Turkana counties, households reported traveling 8 to 20 kilometers compared to 5 kilometers or less normally due to the breakdown of boreholes, drying of water pans, and inadequate recharge, especially in Turkana County.

Across many pastoral areas, as seasonal surface water sources dry up, return trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources for livestock are rising, except in Mandera, where they are stable. Livestock are traveling around 4 to 11 kilometers to access water, which is around 25 to 60 percent shorter than the five-year average. However, in Turkana, livestock are traveling 10 percent further than the five-year average due to the below-average recharge of water sources. Generally, the good recharge following the short rains supports livestock water access and helps livestock recover their body conditions.  

The main water sources for both livestock and domestic use in the marginal agricultural areas are water pans and dams, rivers, shallow wells, boreholes, springs, traditional river wells, traditional water wells, roof and rock catchments, and piped water systems (Djabias) found in Lamu County. Due to the good rainfall, water pans/ dams recharged to 70 to 100 percent capacity and are expected to last three to six months. River flows were within the usual seasonal ranges, except in Kwale (Kinango and Lunga Lunga) and Meru (Meru North), where river flows are very low due to low recharge. In the marginal agricultural areas, return trekking distances to domestic sources are 1.3 to 4.3 kilometers and around 10 to 40 percent shorter than the five-year average. Similarly, livestock are traveling 1.8 to 4.3 kilometers, similar to 60 percent shorter than the five-year average. Overall, most households use less time and effort than normal to access water, enabling them to engage more in other livelihood activities. 

Forage and pasture: According to the satellite-derived eVIIRS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), vegetation greenness ranges from 105 to130 percent of the 2012-2021 average across most of the country; however, vegetation greenness in Turkana and western Marsabit is lower than the 10-year average likely due to below-average rainfall and high temperatures and evapotranspiration rates (Figure 2). 

Forage and pasture: According to the satellite-derived eVIIRS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), vegetation greenness ranges from 105 to130 percent of the 2012-2021 average across most of the country; however, vegetation greenness in Turkana and western Marsabit is lower than the 10-year average likely due to below-average rainfall and high temperatures and evapotranspiration rates (Figure 2). 

Livestock body conditions across the pastoral areas range from good to very good, except in Isiolo and Garissa, where the body conditions are fair to good, and Turkana, where they are fair. Livestock body conditions are generally improving, driven by the above-average available forage and water resources. Livestock mortality remains within normal levels despite deaths from the flash floods in the flood-affected areas and occurrences of endemic diseases. 

Following the above-average short rains, there were a few reports of livestock diseases and outbreaks in different pastoral areas. Isiolo County reported a confirmed positive test for RVF for livestock in the county after communities reported mass abortion of livestock. At the same time, in Marsabit, a positive human sample for RVF was received in late January during active surveillance, where about 30 percent of tested samples were positive for RVF antibodies, triggering public awareness campaigns for RVF and animal vaccinations. In Turkana, there was a countywide outbreak of contagious ecthyma that affected mostly kids and camel calves, while in Samburu, there were outbreaks of Enteroxemia in Sheep, Foot and Mouth Disease in cattle (FMD) and sheep and goat pox (SGP) that resulted in increased abortions in small stocks that resulted in vaccination and deworming facilitated by Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development (ACTED) and Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Overall, the outbreaks are considered contained, and although there were localized impacts on affected households and communities, the impact on household access to food and income at the county level is minor. 

Migration is mostly typical due to abundant forage and water, and livestock remain in the wet season grazing areas within the counties. However, in Turkana, around 80 percent of cattle, 75 percent of sheep and goats, and 50 percent of camel and donkeys have migrated to Turkana West and Turkana South and across the borders to Uganda, Southern Sudan, and Southern Ethiopia to access pasture.

Markets and trade: Staple food prices are beginning to decline as the short rains harvest begins but remain above average due to inflation, high demand driven by low opening stocks, depreciating local currency, and high production and marketing costs. The high prices of staple foods is continuing to impact household purchasing power. In January, wholesale maize prices in Kisumu were similar to the five-year average, driven by local short rains harvest and supplies from source markets in western Kenya and cross-border imports from Uganda. However, wholesale maize prices were 34 to 40 percent above average across the rest of the monitored markets, driven by high demand, high production and marketing costs, and high-priced imports. The retail maize prices in the pastoral and marginal areas ranged from 52 to 102 KES per kilogram and were around 15 to 50 percent above the five-year average. Wholesale bean prices were also around 45 to 75 percent higher than the five-year average and twice the average price in Mombasa, driven by limited supply and highly priced cross-border imports. Retail bean prices in the marginal areas range from 138 to 174 KES per kilogram and around 35 to 65 percent above the five-year average, driven by limited supplies. Bean prices remain similar to 2023 and follow seasonal trends at elevated levels due to limited supplies (Figure 3). The above-average staple food prices remain a constraint to household food access as households continue to pay very high prices to purchase food. 

Livestock prices: Above-average rangeland resources driven by two consecutive above-average seasons continue to support the recovery and productivity of livestock in the pastoral areas, evident in the average to above-average livestock body conditions. In January, a medium-sized two-year-old goat retailed for 4,310 to 7,992 KES, around 30 and 80 percent above the five-year average in Garissa and Turkana, respectively, but twice the five-year average across the rest of the pastoral areas. The goat-to-maize terms-of-trade, a proxy for household purchasing power, ranged from around 40 to 95 kilograms of maize purchased per goat sold and ranged from 20 percent lower than the five-year average in Kaijado to 75 percent higher than the five-year average in Mandera (Figure 4). The 40 to 96 kilograms purchased from the sale of a goat can meet the minimum kilocalorie equivalent to feed a family of six for 12 to 27 days. Despite the high goat prices, the significantly above-average staple food prices constrain household food access. 

Conflict and Insecurity: Several cattle rustling incidences were reported across Isiolo and Mandera, where 860 heads of goat and sheep were stolen, and several people were injured in a retaliation attack. In Turkana County, hundreds of livestock were lost to cattle raids in the Lopii sub-location in addition to bandit attacks along the main A1 Road connecting Turkana South and West Pokot, where suspected bandits continue to target and rob passengers. In Samburu, cattle rustling and bandit ambushes have resulted in 17 human fatalities and displaced over 1,000 households in the Samburu North sub-county. In Kitui, Meru, Laikipia, and Baringo counties, cattle rustling and bandit activity resulted in the loss of lives, the destruction of property, and the closure of some primary and Early Childhood Development (ECD) schools, including disrupting household livelihood activities and access to key services from the education, health, and livestock sectors. 

Cases of human-wildlife conflict have been reported, with several acres of cropland in Isiolo and Kitui counties destroyed by elephants, while in Makueni and Kitui counties, predators killed 90 heads of livestock. Inter-clan conflicts in Mandera resulted in the loss of nearly six lives, the destruction of 151 homes, and the displacement of 27 villages, in addition to the looting of 20 shops in Rhamu town, affecting road access and driving an increase in the prices of essential commodities. Reports of insurgents and terrorists in Lamu County have affected livestock production activities in areas like Kibaoni, Pandanguo, and Kiunga; however, government security personnel are actively monitoring and containing the situation. 

Household incomes: According to data collected from November to December 2023 through key informant interviews on household's off-own farm income (OOFI), the most important sources of income in pastoral areas remains livestock herding, firewood sales, charcoal sales, and charcoal labor. The income obtained from these sources is mostly used on food and, to a lesser extent, education-related expenses and savings. Livestock herding is the major source of income, with households earning    2,300 – 5,750 KES monthly (~16-40 USD). However, households reported a decline in the availability of herding labor opportunities and wage rates due to low herd sizes and increased competition for herding labor opportunities. Households engaged in firewood sales are earning 200 to 650 KES per sale (~1-5 USD)-with about half of the households reporting no change in prices, with other households reporting above average prices of firewood, citing a scarcity of firewood, high demand, and rainfall reducing the availability of dry firewood. Households engaged in charcoal are earning 583 to 1,000 KES (~4-7 USD) per bag from charcoal sales, and most households reported above average prices, driven by high demand due to an increase in fuel prices, difficulty in production due to rainfall, high cost of living, and flooding. However, the opportunities for the sale of charcoal were reported to be mostly below average due to an oversupply of labor, government restrictions, inaccessibility due to rainfall and distance, insecurity, and deforestation. Relatedly, households dependent on charcoal labor earn 300-730 KES daily (~2-5 USD), with earnings above average attributed to a high cost of living, favorable market conditions, and inflation. However, the availability of charcoal labor opportunities appears mixed across the pastoral areas.   

In the marginal agricultural areas, the most important sources of off-own farm income during the reference period were domestic labor, firewood sales, agricultural labor, and charcoal labor. The income from these sources was mainly used to purchase food, but a small portion of the income was used on education-related expenses in Kilifi and on agricultural inputs and services in Taita Taveta. Domestic labor is a major source of income in the southeastern marginal agricultural areas, earning households a monthly wage of about 6500 KES (~47 USD), with most informants reporting no changes in wages, but almost a third did report that wages were below average wages due to by low demand, high cost of living, and general economic hardship. Firewood sales are another major source of income, earning households 142 – 400 KES per bundle of firewood (~1-3 USD). The average price is higher than normal, especially in the coastal marginal areas, due to higher demand from tourist hotels. Still, general drivers of the above-average price are reduced availability, strict firewood trade regulations, deforestation, and increased demand due to the higher cost of petroleum and cooking gas. Agricultural labor during October to December short rains earned households a monthly income of 5,070 - 10,000 KES (~36-70 USD). Households recorded increases in income and availability of agricultural labor opportunities driven by increased crop production, a high cost of living, and a high demand for labor. However, households engaging in charcoal labor earn about 288 KES daily (~2 USD) or 6,048 KES monthly (~42 USD), with earnings higher than normal as wages adjust to the high living cost and insecurity that constrain production. Still, charcoal labor opportunities are below average due to low demand for labor. In general, marginal agricultural households primarily engage in agricultural labor opportunities, with most households focused on crop production. The good harvest and opportunities for income from crop sales are reducing the demand for off-own farm income sources. However, households will increase their engagement in off-own farm income during the lean periods.

Interannual and emergency food assistance: Government safety net programmes such as OVC, OPCT, and PWSD – CT continue to provide at least 2,000 KES (~14 USD) monthly to about one million targeted households. The Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP) implemented by NDMA continues to provide 5,400 KES (~38 USD) every two months to at least 125,000 households in Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, and Samburu counties. The National and County governments and humanitarian agencies implemented strategic action plans in anticipation of the El Niño enhanced rains to mitigate impacts and provided emergency assistance for affected households in the form of both food and non-food interventions in the most affected areas are still ongoing to aid recovery of the flood affected populations, especially displaced households, some of whom remain in IDP camps.  

Current Food Security Outcomes

In the pastoral areas, most households are Stressed (IPC Phase 2), but area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing in Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo as pastoral households continue to gradually recover from the historic drought and the impact of the flooding in late 2023. Despite above-average goat-to-maize terms of trade, household income and food levels remain limited due to low herd sizes, below-average milk production, above-average staple food prices, and the high cost of living. According to January NDMA sentinel site data, the food consumption score (FCS) across the pastoral areas was mostly improving, but poor dietary diversity, below-average milk consumption, and low meal frequency remain present. Households are applying consumption strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3), such as skipping meals, reducing the number of meals eaten, reducing food portion sizes, sending children to eat elsewhere, and reducing adults' portions in favor of children. However, household engagement in livelihood-based coping strategies is declining as households recover from the drought and floods, particularly in Baringo, Isiolo, Kajiado, Samburu, and Tana River, but at least 20 percent of households are applying coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) such as withdrawing children from school and reducing health expenses in Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, and Wajir. The improvement in milk consumption, increased access to food from the long and short rains harvest, and sustained humanitarian assistance in food, nutrition, and health services is improving acute malnutrition rates. In January, NDMA sentinel site data indicated that 7 to 26 percent of children under the age of five that recorded a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) of less than 135mm was around 10 to 50 percent lower than the five-year average and on a stable or declining trend, except in Garissa where around 16 percent of children in the NDMA sentinel sites recorded a MUAC of less than 135mm compared to the five-year average of around 11 percent due to below average milk consumption, poor dietary diversity, and a rise in illnesses affecting children, which was partly driven by the impact of the floods.   

In marginal agricultural areas, despite the high staple food prices, the expected above-average short rains harvests have improved income and food for the poor households, driving Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in Taita Taveta and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes across the rest of the marginal agricultural areas where harvests are yet to begin, and household access to food and income remains lower than normal. According to January sentinel site data, FCS was acceptable in Embu (Mbeere), Taita Taveta, and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), but the rest of the marginal agricultural areas had over 20 percent of households recorded a borderline FCS score indicative of Crisis (IPC) outcomes attributed to below average milk consumption, low meal frequency, and limited dietary diversity. Most poor households are engaging in consumption and livelihood-based coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as they wait for the harvest to commence and an increase in income-earning opportunities. 

Assumptions

The most likely scenario from October 2023 to May 2024 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

• The March-May 2024 long rains in northern and eastern Kenya are most likely to be average, with localized areas of above-average rainfall. Based on expectations for ENSO Neutral conditions, the June to September long rains rainfall season in unimodal Kenya will likely be average to above average. However, notable uncertainty exists, given the long lead time and the absence of available forecasts.
• Above-average temperatures are most likely through at least September 2024. 
• NMME-based rootzone soil moisture forecasts indicate that soil moisture will be above average across much of Kenya through at least May 2024 and among the highest on record in parts of northeastern Kenya.
• In the marginal agricultural areas, the main short rains maize harvests from February are expected to be average to above average. However, the bean harvest is likely to be below average, negatively impacted by waterlogging during their developmental stages. In July, the long rains harvests are expected to be average to above-average, supported by the forecast average to above-average March to May long rains and available government-subsidized fertilizer. 
• According to FEWS NET price projections, wholesale maize and bean prices in Nairobi are expected to follow seasonal trends but be lower than 2023 prices due to increased availability of the commodities following improved harvests and prospects of better rains in 2024. Wholesale maize and bean prices are expected to range from 4,400 – 5,500 KES and 10,500 – 12,200 KES, respectively, and be 6 – 42 percent above the five-year averages throughout the scenario period influenced by low opening stocks, depreciation of the Kenya Shilling, high inflation, high production, and transport costs.
• In February, agricultural waged labor opportunities and crop sales will likely be above average in the marginal agricultural areas, supported by the anticipated above-average short rains harvests. Similarly, agricultural wages and labor opportunities during the March to May long rains season and the following harvest will also be above average. Households will likely earn average to above-average incomes from increased on-farm labor opportunities and crop sales. 
• Forage, pasture, and water resources are expected to be maintained at average to above-average levels throughout the scenario period supported by the forecast rainfall. Return trekking distances to water sources for households and livestock will follow seasonal variations but remain average to below average. Livestock are expected to remain close to households, maintaining household access to milk.
• Livestock productivity (milk production and sale value) is expected to remain average to above average throughout the scenario period, supported by available forage, pasture, and water resources from the 2023 short rains and the 2024 March-May long rains. The increased sale of livestock and milk is expected to maintain household income, particularly in pastoral livelihood zones, at average to above-average levels throughout the scenario period. 
• Following above-average livestock conception rates during the above-average 2023 long and short rains seasons and expected average conception during the 2024 March to May long rains, livestock birth rates for all species are expected to increase significantly. Over the scenario period, an increase in livestock herd sizes and an improvement in household milk availability is expected. However, herd sizes, especially for cattle and camel, will likely remain below average during the scenario period. 
• High soil moisture and additional rainfall will likely result in stagnant water, which can spread waterborne diseases, including the vector-borne viral zoonotic Rift Valley Fever (RVF). Affected areas will likely be quarantined, including bans on the sale or movement of livestock to curb its spread. However, it is anticipated that varying levels of disease surveillance, prevention, and control measures by county and national authorities will likely moderately to significantly reduce livestock and human deaths.
• High fuel prices will likely continue to drive high prices of staple food and non-food items, constraining household purchasing power, particularly for very poor and poor households. 
• Al-Shabaab violence is expected to increase in Garissa province and other border areas in the coming months because of an ongoing military offensive in central and southern Somalia that is pushing al-Shabaab into hideouts in the Kenya-Somalia border regions. The group is likely to conduct punitive attacks against Kenyan security forces for their involvement in the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and to project power through low-level attacks to counter the perception that the Somali offensive has degraded their capabilities. Fighting in border areas of Wajjir province may increase depending on whether al-Shabaab attempts to capture the Geriley base, located just over the border in Somalia's Gedo region. 
• Emergency humanitarian assistance will likely be required for the recently flood-affected households in the northeastern parts of the country through at least May.

Most Likely Acute Food Security Outcomes

From February to May, pastoral household access to food and income will likely improve with increased access to the short rains harvest, increased livestock birth rates, and agricultural labor opportunities during the March to May long rains. From mid to late March, the forecast average to above average March to May long rains will help further the recovery of forage and water resources in pastoral areas. In pastoral areas, good livestock body conditions will support a return to normal conception rates and high sale values as livestock remain in the wet season grazing areas close to homesteads and continue to provide milk for consumption and sale. However, pastoral households may restrict livestock sales to replenish their herds, keeping livestock prices high. As household access to food and income improve, households will reduce their application of more severe consumption and livelihood-based coping strategies and likely engage in coping strategies more indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, in areas with high soil moisture, flooding during the March to May long rains will likely lead to short-term disruptions to household access to food and income and Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks that may result in bans on movement, consumption, and trade of livestock impacting household income in the affected areas. Overall, the improvements in household access to food and income will support declining acute malnutrition rates with widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes likely by the end of the long rains. 

From June to September, rangeland resource availability and livestock productivity will peak following the long rains. The ongoing access to milk for sale and consumption and improvements in herd sizes, particularly goats and sheep, will support household access to income. Livestock body conditions will likely range from good to very good, and livestock sale values will probably be at their highest, providing improved household access to food and income. With livestock remaining in the wet season grazing areas through early to mid-August, household access to milk will seasonally reduce as conception ahead of the 2024 long rains begins, but milk production will remain near average-to-average levels. As livestock body conditions decline seasonally, prices will remain above average due to high demand and good body conditions, maintaining household access to income for food purchases. From August, the lean season will be mitigated by the positive impacts of the long rains; however, poor and very poor households will likely continue to apply consumption and livelihood coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to high food and non-food prices, and the need to pay off past debts as they slowly recover from the historic drought and the flooding in late 2023. Acute malnutrition rates are likely to remain elevated due to high food prices and high seasonal morbidity levels, including increased malaria and diarrhea cases following the destruction of sanitation facilities during the rainy seasons. Overall, the seasonal decline in household access to food and income will be slight to moderate, and area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will be widespread as at least one in five households will likely be able to meet their food needs but cannot afford their non-food needs.

In the marginal agricultural areas, the above-average short rains harvests beginning in February will improve household food availability and household food consumption. Household income will likely increase as households engage in crop sales and agricultural wage labor during the short rains harvest and subsequent land preparation, planting, and weeding during the March to May long rains. Households are likely to rely on their above-average food stocks for food until the start of the long rains harvest in June and July. However, some households in Kilifi, Lamu, Embu, and Kitui will likely deplete their stocks by mid to late March and increase their reliance on market purchases to meet their food needs. Staple food prices will likely decline but remain above average, driven by high production and marketing costs. The above-average income from on-farm sources such as crop sales will enable households to reduce their reliance on off-own farm income sources and their application of consumption and livelihood-based coping strategies. Further improvements in forage and water resources will continue to support livestock productivity, household milk availability and consumption, and household dietary diversity. Improved household food availability and incomes will enable most households to meet their essential food and non-food needs without engaging in atypical and unsustainable strategies, driving Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. However, the high cost of living will likely keep at least one in five households unable to afford their non-food needs, driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

From June to September, household access to food and income will improve with the start of the long rains harvest in July as market prices temporarily decline. From early to mid-August, some households with small farms will likely have depleted their household food stocks and will turn to markets to meet their food needs, but above-average prices will likely keep their purchasing power lower than normal. As agricultural labor opportunities decline, households will increase their dependence on off-own farm income, but increased competition, limited off-farm labor opportunities, and the need to pay back past debts will result in some households increasing their engagement in consumption and livelihood based coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) such as spending savings, borrowing money, selling off more animals than usual, and selling household assets, with the most affected households likely to engage in coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Overall, the high food prices and limited labor opportunities during the dry season will likely keep area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in marginal agricultural areas.   

Events that Might Change the Outlook

Current Situation

The 2023 October to December short rains performed well in the Northern Pastoral Livelihood Zone areas of Marsabit compared to Turkana's Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone areas. According to CHIRPS satellite data, the cumulative seasonal totals were 110 percent to more than 200 percent of the 40-year average in most areas of the Northern Pastoral Livelihood Zone, except isolated pockets in the southeast where cumulative totals were below 90 percent of normal rainfall. However, in the Northwestern Pastoral areas of Turkana, the performance of the short rains was mixed, with the northern and western parts of the livelihood zone receiving cumulative seasonal totals exceeding 90 percent of normal rainfall while the rest of the livelihood zone received less than 75 percent of normal rainfall, with the southern parts receiving less than 50 percent of normal rainfall.

Vegetation conditions have seasonally declined during the dry months of January and February, but the decline is more pronounced in the Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone due to poor regeneration during the short rains coupled with unusually high land surface temperatures. The proxy satellite eVIIRS NDVI data for late February indicates that vegetation greenness is less than 80 percent of normal in most parts of the Northern Pastoral Livelihood Zone, except the central and southern parts where vegetation conditions are over 110 percent of normal. In most parts of the Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone, vegetation conditions are less than 70 percent of normal except for a few pockets in the western parts where vegetation conditions are above 105 percent of normal. 

Typical water sources such as water pans, dams, shallow wells, traditional river wells, and boreholes provide water for livestock consumption and domestic use. However, water availability in open sources, such as water pans and dams, is gradually declining in the Northern Pastoral Livelihood Zone due to continued use and evaporation, driving a gradual increase in the reliance on other sources, such as boreholes and shallow wells. Most open water sources are likely to last almost two months compared to three normally. In contrast, water availability in the Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone is unseasonably low, especially in the south, due to poor recharge during the short rains season. Most open water sources are expected to only last a month compared to two months normally. 

The USGS waterpoint viewer indicates that the monitored surface water points are seasonally dry or greater than the long-term median levels, keeping livestock return watering distances seasonally low. Livestock travel 4 to 6 km for water compared to 5 km to 15 km normally. However, in the Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone, livestock return trekking distances are unusually high, at 16 km compared to 12 km normally, due to the diminishing water sources in the grazing areas. Due to the longer trekking distances in the northwestern pastoral livelihood zone, livestock are watered three times a week compared to four to five times a week normally. 

Households are traveling shorter distances than normal to access water in both livelihood zones due to the availability of groundwater sources such as shallow wells, traditional river wells, and boreholes. Household return trekking distances to watering points are 3 km in the Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone compared to 5 km normally in February, while in the Northern Pastoral Livelihood Zone, the return distances are 2 km compared to 2 km to 6 km normally. 

Due to the good availability of rangeland resources, livestock in the Northern Pastoral Livelihood Zone areas of Marsabit remain in the traditional wet season grazing areas within the livelihood zone. According to NDMA January bulletins, livestock that had migrated to Waso areas in the Northeastern Pastoral areas of Isiolo before the onset of the short rains have migrated back into the wet season grazing areas. The proximity of these grazing areas to homesteads continues to support household milk availability. However, the earlier-than-normal depletion of rangeland resources has triggered unseasonal livestock migrations in the Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone. Beginning in late December, livestock in the south have been migrating northwards into parts of Turkana North, southern parts of Ethiopia and South Sudan, and westwards into western Uganda in search of better pasture. 

Livestock in the Northern Pastoral Livelihood Zone areas of Marsabit are in good body conditions compared to fair normally due to the good availability of rangeland resources and short grazing and watering distances. However, in the Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone, livestock are in fair to poor body condition compared to fair to good normally due to the seasonally low availability of rangeland resources. Although livestock birth rates have been normal in all livelihood zones due to good conception rates in the previous successive average to above-average seasons, livestock herd sizes remain significantly low due to drought-related losses that were incurred during the prolonged drought, increased sales as households sought incomes to meet their food needs, and the typical low recovery rates. According to the KFSSG 2023 SRA report, poor households have one TLU¹ compared to two to four TLUs normally in the Northern Pastoral Livelihood Zone and two TLUs in the Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone compared to five TLUs normally. Due to low livestock holdings and most female livestock nearing the end of their gestation periods, milk production remains significantly low in the Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone, with households receiving around 0.25 liters per day compared to 2 liters per household per day normally. Given the low production levels, most milk produced in the Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone is consumed by the households, which is also significantly lower than the normal consumption of 2 liters per household per day. In the Northern Pastoral Livelihood Zone, households get 1.5 liters to 2 liters of milk daily, similar to the five-year average. Milk consumption is also lower than normal, with households consuming less than 1 liter per day compared to 1.6 liters per day normally. The below-average milk production continues to constrain household diets and income from milk sales, negatively impacting household purchasing capacities and access to food.

Livestock sale values are historically high in both livelihood zones due to the good body conditions and reduced market supply as herders seek to recover their herds. According to the NDMA January bulletins, goat prices in Marsabit's Northern Pastoral Livelihood Zone areas are 127 percent higher than the five-year average and nearly three times higher than last year's prices. In the Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone, goat prices were 78 percent higher than the five-year average and just over two and a half times higher. However, staple food prices remain atypically high due to high demand, high costs of cross-border imports due to the depreciating local currency, and high marketing costs due to the high fuel prices. In Marsabit's Northern Pastoral Livelihood Zone areas, maize is sourced locally, including from the central highlands such as Meru and informal cross-border imports from Ethiopia. In the Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone, maize supplies are from neighboring high and medium potential areas of Trans Nzoia County, and cross-border imports from Uganda are normal. Due to the high transport costs and high demand, maize prices are around 40 to 50 percent higher than the five-year average in January. Generally, the high livestock sale values support household purchasing power, with households in Marsabit and Turkana able to afford 96 and 42 kg of maize grain for each goat sold, respectively, higher than the five-year averages (Figure 6). However, households are refraining from selling livestock due to low herd sizes. 

According to key informant data collected in January through telephone interviews, livestock herding, firewood sales, charcoal sales, petty trade, and charcoal labor were the five most important sources of off-own farm income. Wages from livestock herding labor were the highest, ranging between 2,000 KES to nearly 5,000 KES per month, but the availability of herding labor was lower than normal due to low livestock holdings. Household incomes from the sale of firewood were low in the Northwestern Pastoral areas of Turkana, averaging around 200 KES per month compared to 500 to 600 KES per month in the Northern Pastoral areas of Marsabit. However, high competition is limiting household earnings, while over-exploitation is reducing the availability of firewood. Charcoal sales provided an average of 500 to 600 KES per month in Turkana and 600 to 850 KES in Marsabit, but earnings were also limited by high competition and a lack of wood. Overall, most of the earned income is being used for food purchases.

During the short rains, most humanitarian assistance programs ended in November 2023, except for the regular Hunger Safety Net Program by the national government and implemented by NDMA. The Kenya Cash Working Group has calculated the minimum food basket (MFB) cost to be 11,361 KES per household/month (~77 USD). In the Northern Pastoral areas of Marsabit, the Hunger Safety Net Program provides 5,400 KES (~36 USD) to 20,453 households, while in the Northwestern Pastoral areas of Turkana, around 39,918 households are also receiving HSNP payments. In the Northern Pastoral areas of Marsabit, WFP, through the county government, is conducting direct food distributions to 20,354 households in Saku, Moyale, North Horr, and Laisamis sub-counties, around 23 percent of Marsabit's population based on the 2024 KNBS population projections, with each household receiving a monthly ration of around 57 kg of sorghum, 8 kg of split beans and 4.5 liters of vegetable oil. However, distributions are likely to end in March with the start of the March to May long rains. 

In January, over 20 percent of poor households in the NDMA sentinel sites in both livelihood zones reported food consumption scores indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) driven largely by poor diet diversity and low milk availability. In both livelihood zones, poor households are relying on less preferred or less expensive food, eating smaller meals than normal, and reducing the number of meals eaten per day, with the most drought-affected households continuing to borrow food from friends and relatives and restricting consumption by adults so that small children can eat. With household access to food still low, at least one in five households in both livelihood zones continue to employ livelihood coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2), such as borrowing money and purchasing food on credit and Crisis (IPC Phase 3), such as reducing expenditures on veterinary care and human health. The prevalence of acute malnutrition remains high in both livelihood zones, with Critical (GAM WHZ 15-29.9 %) across most of the livelihood zones, Extremely Critical (GAM WHZ >30%) in Turkana South, Serious (GAM WHZ 10-14.9%) in Saku, and Alert (GAM WHZ 5-9.9%) in Moyale sub-county.

Despite the gradual improvements in household milk availability and household purchasing power, small herd sizes, limited access to income-earning opportunities, and high food prices are resulting in at least one in five households engaging in coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to mitigate food consumption gaps.

Assumptions

In addition to the national-level assumptions, the following assumptions apply to this area of concern:

• According to FEWS NET integrated price projections, the retail prices of maize in the Lodwar market are expected to follow seasonal trends at elevated levels but be lower than prices in 2023. The elevated prices will be driven by high demand, the depreciating local currency, and above-average fuel prices. Goat prices will also follow seasonal trends but remain higher than last year, and the five-year average supported by stable body conditions and an anticipated limited supply as pastoralists aim to replenish their herds. 
• Most livestock will remain in the wet-season season grazing areas throughout the scenario period, but in June, livestock migration will likely begin earlier than normal in eastern and southern Turkana due to limited pasture and water access. The regeneration of forage and water resources is expected to be below average in these areas, having been depleted before reaching maturity and seeding during the 2023 short rains. 
• Throughout the scenario period, the expected average to above-average livestock prices and milk production will support household access to important sources of income while reducing their dependence on coping strategies to minimize food consumption gaps. However, incomes from livestock sales will be limited by low sales as herders seek to improve their herd sizes.
• During the March to May rainfall period, Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreaks are likely to occur in Marsabit and Samburu counties despite the high alert following the widespread floods during the short rains from October to December 2023. RVF outbreaks are expected to be mitigated by the relatively low levels of flooding and the relevant authorities' RVF preparedness plans. Affected areas are likely to report human fatalities, livestock deaths and abortions, quarantines, and disruptions of livestock-related income. 

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Between February and May, household access to food and income is likely to improve as the forecast average to above average March to May long rains will support ongoing regeneration of pastures, browse, and water sources, keeping livestock close to the homesteads. The kidding and calving of livestock will improve household milk access and support the slow recovery of livestock herd sizes following the historic drought. Consequently, the improvements in household milk availability, purchasing power, and access to food will gradually improve household food consumption and dietary diversity. However, due to the typically slow pace of recovery following a prolonged drought, poor households will likely continue to engage in consumption-based coping strategies such as reducing meal portions and eating less preferred foods. However, poor households with limited access to income-earning opportunities and low herd sizes are likely to employ livelihood-coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2), such as purchasing food on credit and borrowing money to meet their food needs. The prevalence of acute malnutrition is likely to decline progressively due to improved household milk availability and consumption and food access. However, the prevalence of acute malnutrition will likely remain Critical (GAM WHZ 15-29.9%) in both livelihood zones and Extremely Critical (GAM WHZ >30%) in the southern parts of the Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone due to increased prevalence of diarrhea and malaria during the wet season and other chronic factors such as consumption of unsafe water and poor child feeding and care practices. Overall, the steady improvement in food availability and access and increased herding opportunities as herd sizes increase will likely lead to area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes emerging, with the worst affected households likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

From June to September, forage and water resources are likely to seasonally decline in both livelihood zones as the July to September lean season progresses, but livestock are likely to remain within the livelihood zones and only migrate to dry-season grazing areas from late August through September as rangeland resources will remain higher than normal. Milk production will decline gradually following good conception rates during the long rains and remain within the seasonal averages. With minimal livestock movements, household milk availability and consumption will remain normal, with households earning average incomes from milk sales. However, in the southern parts of the Northern Pastoral Livelihood Zone, lower than normal regeneration of pastures may trigger atypically early migrations northwards into Turkana North, and southern parts of Ethiopia and South Sudan, and westwards into western Uganda, which would lower household milk access and consumption. Average access to income from livestock, milk sales, remittances from better-off and middle-income relatives in the urban areas, as well as from off-own fam sources such as livestock herding, petty trade, sale of charcoal and firewood, domestic labor, and charcoal labor will support household food access despite above-average staple food prices. With good household milk availability and normal access to income, households in the livelihood zone are likely to continue improving their dietary diversity and increase their meal frequencies. However, being a lean season period, recovery is likely to continue to be slow, and households will likely continue to engage in consumption-based coping strategies such as eating smaller than normal meals and eating less preferred foods. Poor households are also likely to employ livelihood-coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2), such as purchasing food on credit and borrowing money to meet their food needs amid high prices. Even with improvements in incomes and access to food, other chronic factors such as the consumption of unsafe water, and poor child feeding and care practices are likely to keep the prevalence of acute malnutrition in Critical (GAM WHZ 15-29.9%) in both livelihood zones and Extremely Critical (GAM WHZ >30%) in the southern parts of the Northwestern Pastoral Livelihood Zone. Overall, at least one in five households are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as they slowly recover from the impact of the historic drought.