Food security seasonally deteriorating in pastoral and marginal agricultural areas

In pastoral areas, rangeland resources have continued to become less available during the dry season, leading to the seasonal decline in livestock productivity, which seasonally reduces household incomes and food consumption. Most households remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), except in parts of eastern Isiolo and western Wajir, which remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to drier than normal conditions in these areas. As the availability of rangeland resources increases during the forecast above-average October to December short rains, livestock productivity, household incomes, and food consumption will increase. Even in eastern Isiolo and western Wajir, most households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) by December, and some pastoral households will move into None (IPC Phase 1). 

During the forecast above-average October to December short rains, flash floods, river flooding, and lakeside flooding are likely. Flooding is likely to displace households, increase the incidence of water- and vector-borne diseases, limit access to markets due to submerged or damaged roads, and lead to the loss of life. Some areas may move into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while flooded.

In the southeastern marginal agricultural areas, there are few agricultural labor opportunities at this time of year, so households are relying on petty trading, construction labor, and other forms of non-agricultural labor to purchase food. The majority of housheolds are Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Many households are likely to move to None (IPC Phase 1) by December, after the short rains start in October. Agricultural labor demand will increase, leading to higher wage rates and household incomes. By December, some short-cycle crops like pulses will be mature and supplement market purchases.

The long rains harvest and cross-border imports have increased food supply in markets, and maize supply is likely to continue increasing as the harvest starts in the northern Rift Valley in October. Overall, national food availability is normal, and most areas of western and central Kenya are likely to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). However, the forecast above-average October to December short rains are expected to fall in areas that are typically dry during the harvest. These rains may lead to water damage both of crops in the fields and recently harvested crops while those crops are being dried and processed. 

For more detailed analysis, see the Kenya Food Security Outlook Update for August 2015.