Food security continues to deteriorate during February to March minor lean season

• Following the below-average October to December short rains, the number of food insecure people has been increasing. According to the 2015 short rains assessment conducted by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG), the food insecure population has increased to 1.6 million people, seven percent more than were assessed to be food insecure in August.

• Short rains crops did not develop well in the southeastern, marginal, agricultural areas. As such, short rains maize production is expected to be up to 70 percent below average. The majority of households in these areas are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and expected to remain so.

• Hotter-than-normal conditions from January through March are likely to lead to a more severe than normal deterioration of rangeland conditions during the short lean season. Livestock productivity is continuing to decline. Low household incomes and low availability of livestock products are limiting food consumption. The majority of households in pastoral areas remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), but localized areas that had an even drier short rains and have even fewer productive livestock in parts of Isiolo, Wajir, Garissa, Turkana, and Marsabit are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

The southeastern, marginal, agricultural areas had the short rains start in early October, but then it was dry until mid-November. Rainfall amounts were largely below 75 percent of normal, highly unevenly distributed over space and time, and ended earlier than normal during the first week of December. As a result, maize production is expected to be up to 70 percent below normal. Since it was dry while maize was tasseling, most of the maize did not recover when the rains resumed. With limited opportunities for casual, agricultural labor, households are still accessing minimally adequate amounts of food, using various coping mechanisms which include petty trade, charcoal burning, sand harvesting, borrowing from friends and relatives, and credit purchases. While households are primarily purchasing food right now, cereal prices have remained stable. County average maize prices remained stable between December 2014 and January 2015 in Kitui, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Meru North, and Nyeri. County average maize prices are up to 12 percent below their five-year averages in Kitui, Makueni, and Tharaka Nithi, in part due to imports from Tanzania, but they are six to 27 percent above their five-year averages in Meru North, Embu, and Nyeri. The majority of households are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Higher than average land surface temperatures in pastoral areas since January have increased the rate at which rangeland resources are being depleted. In some areas, pasture, browse, and water are already mostly depleted. Livestock currently have fair to poor body conditions, especially in parts of Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, and Samburu. Consequently, livestock prices have started to seasonally decline. Goat prices in Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, and Mandera declined five to 20 percent between December 2014 and January 2015. The decline is attributed to the deteriorating livestock body conditions and the high supply of livestock on markets as households sell livestock to raise money for food and essential non-food needs like school fees. In Wajir County, the county average goat price fell 44 percent from December to January. County average goat prices were seven to 25 percent below their five-year averages in Turkana, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, and Isiolo. In contrast, maize prices have remained fairly stable, except in Mandera where the county average maize price increased 10 percent due to insecurity that has limited the volumes traders are supplying to this area. County average goat prices are up to 25 percent above-average in most of the pastoral areas, but in Marsabit and Mandera Counties, they were near average in January, due to increased supplies to the markets and low demand. Though incomes and livestock productivity are lower than they would usually be at this time of year, most households are still able to access minimally adequate amounts of food, some through employing coping strategies like charcoal and firewood burning, petty trading, and credit purchases. They remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, part of Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, and Marsabit had below average rainfall during the October to December 2013 short rains, the March to May 2014 long rains, and the October to December 2014 short rains. In these areas, poor households have lost or already sold a substantial number of their productive assets, mostly livestock, and they are currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

The assumptions from the Kenya Food Security Outlook for January to June 2015 remain unchanged.

Higher than average land surface temperatures are expected to continue through March. For pastoral areas, this will result in faster than usual depletion of pasture, browse, and water, and subsequently, livestock productivity will decrease even more than usual. Livestock products like milk will be less available, hindering adequate food consumption. The number of malnourished children is expected to increase more than just seasonally. Cereal prices are expected to slowly and gradually increase through April due to the expected well below average short rains harvest and the below-average October to February maize harvest in western Kenya and the Rift Valley. These will reduce supply to pastoral areas. With livestock prices expected to decline through April, terms of trade will decline. With less income, household food consumption will be reduced. Though the majority of households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), households in parts of Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo, Turkana, and Garissa are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through March. In those areas, households have already sold assets this year to cover food and other needs, so their ability to cope has already been reduced. However, following the start of the long rains in March, rangeland conditions are expected to gradually improve, and to be significantly better by the end of April. These changes will contribute to increased food consumption by May.

In the southeastern, marginal, agricultural areas, most households do not have stocks, so reliance on markets will continue to be higher than normal, even following the harvest in February/March as the harvest will be well below average. With below-average household incomes, a result of limited income-earning opportunities, households’ purchasing power will be below what it normally is this time of year through March, limiting food consumption. Food insecurity is expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through March. Following the start of the long rains in late March, agricultural labor demand will increase, and this will lead to a marginal increase in household income. This income coupled with some legumes harvested in early May will increase household food consumption, but it will not be enough for households to cover essential non-food expenditures, so they will still remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2).