Historic low October-December rainfall drives widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3)

• The limited availability of forage and water in the typical wet-season grazing areas have forced an extended stay of livestock in dry-season grazing areas and atypical migrations. 

• Atypically limited availability of rangeland resources is driving deterioration of livestock body conditions and productivity. Most pastoral areas reported fair to poor and declining body conditions between October and November, when they typically would improve. Milk production is declining in Isiolo, Wajir, and Mandera, consistent with the increasing livestock trekking distances in these areas. 

• In marginal agricultural areas, poor performance of the short rains is impeding crop development, with significantly below-average yields and localized crop failures expected. A small proportion of households planted following the brief but intense rainfall in late October, while the majority planted in mid to late November. By the end of November, weeding activities were underway for the earlier-planted crops, particularly in Nyeri and Embu. However, crops planted from mid to late November are stunted, withered, or failed to germinate due to significant moisture deficits, particularly in Kitui and Makueni. Consequently, households are not expecting green harvests that are typically available in December. 

• Poor crop establishment and development are suppressing seasonal agricultural labor demand for weeding, spraying, and preharvest activities, reducing income-earning opportunities for poor households across most marginal agricultural areas.  

• Staple food prices remain near or above five-year averages, despite an increase in supply from recent harvests in the North Rift and western Kenya as demand remains atypically high. November retail maize prices in pastoral areas ranged from average to 11 percent above the five-year average, with the highest prices recorded in Garissa and Mandera. In marginal agricultural areas, maize prices were generally average to 19 percent above average, with Kitui and Makueni recording the highest price levels. Similarly, bean prices in the marginal agricultural zones were average to seven percent above the five-year average, reflecting ongoing supply constraints. 

• While livestock prices remain relatively high in most pastoral areas, suggesting favorable terms of trade for most pastoral households, low herd sizes continue to limit household livestock sales and incomes. Deteriorating body conditions associated with worsening forage and water availability are exerting downward pressure on prices in Wajir and Mandera. In November, the price of a medium-sized goat ranged from 19 to 64 percent above the five-year average across most pastoral areas, increasing slightly compared to October. However, in Wajir and Mandera, goat prices dipped to average and 14 percent below average, respectively.  Correspondingly, goat-to-maize terms of trade were 13-54 percent above the five-year average in most pastoral counties but below average in Wajir (6 percent below) and Mandera (22 percent below), reflecting higher maize prices and lower livestock value in these areas. 

Humanitarian food assistance 

• The World Food Program (WFP) announced plans in October to increase food rations for refugees in Kakuma and Dadaab camps and Kalobeyei settlement beginning in December 2025, implementing the rations originally planned under the Differentiated Assistance approach initiated in August 2025. Category 1 households will receive 60 percent of the Minimum Food Basket (up from 55 percent), while Category 2 households will receive 40 percent (up from 35 percent). Category 3 households will continue to receive 20 percent, and Category 4 households will remain excluded from food assistance. 

• The national government distributed a round of food assistance in Mandera county in December, reportedly providing 24,560 bags of food across Mandera County’s 12 sub-counties, though it is unclear from the reports how many households received assistance. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) and Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) have launched an international appeal for approximately 19 million USD to provide cash transfers and in-kind support for food, water, healthcare, and shelter to around 300,000 most affected households in the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas. However, information regarding the schedule of any other future assistance, the number of people or households targeted, the rations per person or household, and the duration has not been made available. 

Most of the assumptions that underpinned FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario for the Kenya Food Security Outlook from October 2025 to May 2026 remain valid; however, the following updates have been made to incorporate new evidence: 

• Based on observed conditions and ensemble forecast models, the October to December 2025 short rains season will be significantly below average in most of the country, driven by La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, driving extremely dry conditions in eastern and northern Kenya. 

• Root-zone soil moisture forecasts indicate that soil moisture from January-February will be below average in southern, coastal, and northeastern areas, and above average in the northwest. Soil moisture will begin to improve starting in March with the onset of the long rains season; however, soil moisture will remain below average along the coast and in the northeast near the border with Somalia through April. 

• Localized conflicts over livestock grazing areas and watering points are likely between January and mid-March in areas of Turkana, Baringo, Samburu, Marsabit, Tana River, Kitui, and Tharaka Nithi, due to increased livestock migration. 

• Aggregate crop production from the October-December short rains season will likely be significantly below-average due to extremely poor rainfall and above-average temperatures. 

Humanitarian food assistance 

• Humanitarian food assistance for refugees by WFP is expected to be increased to the rations under the originally-planned Differentiated Assistance approach, with Categories 1 (highly vulnerable households) and 2 (households with limited ability to meet basic needs) receiving 60 percent and 40 percent of the Minimum Food Basket, respectively, and Category 3 (partially self-reliant households) receiving 20 percent of the Minimum Food Basket. Households in Category 4 (self-reliant households) will continue to receive no food rations. 

Pastoral areas: 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, currently ongoing in Mandera, Marsabit, and Turkana, are expected to expand to Garissa, Tana River, and Wajir by January and to Samburu and Isolo by February and persist through May as low livestock productivity and limited income drive food consumption gaps. The atypically dry conditions are accelerating the depletion of rangeland resources driving acute shortages of pasture, browse, and water, anticipated to peak in February. Livestock will remain in dry season grazing areas during the lean season through March, during which time body conditions will deteriorate sharply due to severe shortages of forage and water, significantly reducing household milk availability and income from sales. Atypical migrations are also expected to intensify between January and mid-March, driving livestock further away from households and reducing access to milk, increasing the risk of conflict over limited pasture and water, and facilitating the spread of livestock diseases due to animals concentrating in the small areas where water and forage are available. Herd sizes will remain atypically low, restricting sales, and in the eastern pastoral areas of Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, and Tana River, poor body conditions will continue to depress market values, further constraining household income. The March-May long rains are expected to begin in mid-March as typical and will provide some improvement in water availability relatively quickly once they begin. However, pasture and browse regeneration will be slow and remain limited through March, forcing livestock to remain in dry-season grazing areas. From April onward, as the rains continue to recharge water sources and enable regrowth of pasture and browse, gradual improvements in livestock body conditions and productivity, and movements to wet-season grazing areas are expected. However, recovery of livestock bodies will be slow given the severity of the preceding dry conditions, keeping milk production and household milk availability and income below-average through May. Persistently elevated staple food prices coupled with below-average incomes will continue to erode household purchasing power, driving poor households to adopt consumption and livelihood coping strategies through May. Acute malnutrition prevalence will remain Serious (GAM WHZ 10-14.9 percent) to Critical (GAM WHZ 15-29.9 percent) in the pastoral areas. 

Marginal agricultural areas: 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to spread to Kitui, Makueni, and Lamu in February, while Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist across other marginal agricultural areas. The delayed and poorly developed crop from the short rains season – typically the main cropping season for marginal agricultural areas, providing around 70 percent of annual food production – will prevent the typical December green harvests for some households and otherwise push green harvests to January, with yields atypically low. The main harvests expected in February and March will be significantly below average, with localized crop failures. The poor harvest will leave households with significantly below-average replenishment of food stocks, which are already atypically low in the southeast due to the two prior seasons of below-average production, driving an atypically high reliance on markets through May. Consequently, crop sales will be minimal, constraining household incomes. Poor crop growth and production will also lower demand for harvesting labor, which typically peaks in February, further limiting income opportunities for poor households. To cope, households will increasingly depend on off-own-farm income-earning activities such as charcoal and firewood sales and petty trade to narrow income gaps. From mid-March, the March-May long rains are expected to improve labor demand for cropping activities, creating some income opportunities for poor households. However, income deficits will remain substantial. Heavy reliance on markets, coupled with constrained incomes and elevated staple food prices, will continue to limit household purchasing power despite the uptick in seasonal labor opportunities, restricting access to food. Consequently, most households in marginal agricultural areas will meet their minimum food needs but will be unable to cover essential non-food expenditures without resorting to negative coping strategies. In Kitui, Makueni, and Lamu, which are facing a third consecutive season of below-average crop production, at least one in five households will likely adopt consumption-based coping strategies starting in February and continuing through May, such as skipping meals, reducing portion sizes, or prioritizing feeding children, and livelihood coping strategies, including selling productive assets and reducing expenditures on health and education. The acute malnutrition prevalence is expected to increase but remain in the Acceptable (GAM WHZ <5 percent) to Alert (GAM WHZ 5-9.9 percent) range. 
 

Refugee camps: 

Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to continue in Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps and Kalobeyei refugee settlement, as humanitarian food assistance prevents worse outcomes. From December 2025 through March 2026, WFP-provided food assistance, which was recently increased, is expected to support most refugees in meeting their minimum food needs.

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence. 
 

National  

Below-average rainfall during the March-May long rains season 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Below-average March to May long rains, following an extended period of atypical dryness, will significantly constrain the regeneration of the already severely degraded rangeland resources in pastoral areas. Consequently, pasture, browse, and water availability will remain well below seasonal averages through May. As a result, improvements in livestock body conditions and productivity will be minimal, limiting household access to milk and income from livestock sales. In marginal agricultural areas, poor rainfall performance will hinder crop development, reducing demand for seasonal agricultural labor and associated income-earning opportunities for poor households. By the end of the season, crop yields are expected to be below average, leading to atypically low household food stocks, reduced crop sales, and constrained market supplies. Diminished market supplies and heightened market dependence – driven by low household stocks – will exert upward pressure on staple food prices. Elevated prices, coupled with constrained incomes, will reduce household purchasing power and restrict food access. Overall, declining income-earning opportunities and limited household food availability and access will drive an increase in the number of households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and worse outcomes in both pastoral and marginal agricultural areas. In Mandera, Wajir, Turkana, Garissa, and Marsabit, the number of households experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected to increase, though remain below 20 percent.

Many of the key sources of evidence utilized for FEWS NET’s October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook remain the same; however, new and additional sources of evidence are listed below.