Food insecurity in pastoral areas to worsen amid forecast below-average short rains

• In pastoral areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in Turkana, Marsabit, and Mandera through September, and likely to expand to Wajir, Tana River, and Garissa between October and January 2026. Global ensemble forecasts indicate that the 2025 October to December short rains will be below average, likely supporting only temporary and partial improvement in vegetation conditions, but ultimately insufficient to seasonally replenish rangeland and water resources. Livestock conditions will likely deteriorate, and elevated staple food prices and limited income will constrain purchasing capacity, restricting food access for poor households and slowing recovery from the severe drought of late 2020 to early 2023. As a result, most pastoral households will intensify the use of negative consumption and livelihood coping strategies that will result in reduced food intake and depleted livelihood assets by January.
• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across the marginal agricultural areas through January 2026. Despite nationally favorable harvests, a third consecutive below-average to significantly below-average long rains crop production in marginal agricultural areas is driving an atypically early increase in market reliance amid elevated market prices. Although the anticipated below-average October-December short rains production may temporarily improve food availability in January, anticipated poor crop sales and limited agricultural labor income will constrain food access. Similarly, while off-own-farm incomes may narrow income deficits, households will increasingly rely on consumption and livelihood coping strategies to meet their minimum food needs.
• There is a credible alternative scenario for significantly below-average short rains in Kenya, which would likely shift the current outlook. In this scenario, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes would extend into all pastoral regions by January, driven by the deterioration of livestock body conditions and sale values, and catalyzing atypically early migrations of herds. Area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes would also likely materialize in the marginal agricultural areas of Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta, and Lamu in January, driven by a fourth poor crop production season and an associated lack of opportunities for agricultural labor amid elevated food prices.

Rainfall performance: Across pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, the 2025 March to May long rains have been above average, with cumulative totals exceeding 110 percent of normal, except in coastal marginal agricultural areas where rains were  less than 75 percent of normal (Figure 1). Temporal distribution was poor across the marginal agricultural areas, particularly in Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta. In the unimodal high and medium potential areas of the North Rift and Western Kenya, the long rains totals have been above average through mid-August (Figure 1 and Figure 2). 

Forage and water conditions: Despite favorable replenishment of pastures, browse, and water resources in pastoral areas during the long rains, availability is rapidly declining in August, driven by persistent above-average temperatures. According to satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in mid-August, vegetation greenness is below 80 percent of average (2003-2022) in most of the eastern part of the country and parts of Turkana (Figure 3). National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) monthly reports indicate that while some typical water sources (shallow wells, boreholes, traditional river wells) and open water sources (seasonal rivers, water pans, dams) are still available, the number of available open water sources has declined considerably, with water volumes below 50 percent of their holding capacities. Similarly, USGS Water Point Viewer data for August indicate that the remaining monitored open water sources are in the “watch” and “alert” conditions, with water levels 50-100 percent and 3-50 percent below the long-term median, respectively. 

The decline in the availability of rangeland resources has driven livestock into the dry season grazing areas atypically early (beginning in June instead of early August). Livestock return trekking distances from grazing areas to water points in most pastoral areas have become atypically high, averaging 8-10 kilometers (km) in July, compared to the normal range of 2-6 km. The one exception was Marsabit, where distances were 10 km compared to an average 12 km (KFSSG 2025 Long Rains Food Security Assessment). 

Crop production: The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development projects long rains maize production to reach 4 million metric tons, approximately 10 percent above the five-year average, driven by above-average harvest in the unimodal high and medium potential areas in the North Rift and western Kenya and the bimodal medium potential areas of the South Rift and Central Kenya. 

In the marginal agricultural areas, harvesting of the long rains crop is complete with mixed outcomes. In the southeast, net production is below average due to the poor temporal distribution of the long rains. The maize harvest is 40-75 percent below the five-year average, with the largest production deficits in Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, and Tharaka Nithi counties. This marks the third consecutive season with below-average harvests. In the coastal marginal agricultural areas, crop production was above average in Kilifi and Kwale due to favorable temporal distribution despite receiving near-average rainfall, but below average in Lamu and Taita Taveta.

Household food stocks: In August, most marginal agricultural areas still have access to household food stocks from the long rains harvest. However, the food stocks are atypically low and exhausting rapidly following three consecutive seasons of below-average production in most of these areas.

Livestock production: While birth rates during the favorable long rains season were normal across pastoral areas, herd sizes remain below average (except for Mandera) due to the cumulative losses resulting from distress sales and drought-related deaths during the severe 2020-2023 drought coupled with the typical slow rate of recovery. Poor households in pastoral areas (except Marsabit and Mandera) are holding an average of three to six Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs)¹ compared to an average of five to eight. In Marsabit, livestock holding is much lower (two TLUs compared to the typical six). Conversely, poor households in Mandera are holding an average of seven TLUs compared to the typical six, supported by restocking efforts in July 2023 by NDMA and the European Union (EU), among others, along with four successive good rainfall seasons in the county.

Overall, livestock body conditions range from good to fair compared to the typical good. The slightly deteriorated conditions are due to the rapid decline in the availability of rangeland resources and abnormally long trekking distances to grazing and watering points. Limited by the atypically low herd sizes and declining rangeland resources, milk production across most of the pastoral areas is currently about half of the typical 4 liters per household per day. However, milk production in Turkana is 3 liters per household per day, slightly above the county’s average of 2.5 liters, while in Garissa production is within the normal range of 4 liters per household per day, driven in both cases by relatively better availability of rangeland resources. 

Market supply and prices: As of July, maize prices are generally average to above the five-year average nationwide driven by high demand from livestock feed millers amid constricted availability of yellow maize due to legal restrictions on the importation of GMO maize; sustained high cost of production; and reduced imports from Tanzania due to demand pressure from Malawi and Zambia for Tanzanian maize following production deficits in the two countries. In the urban reference markets of Kisumu and Nairobi, maize wholesale prices are average to 9 percent above average, respectively. In the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, high transport cost due to high fuel prices and the below-average local long rains production have kept maize prices high. In July, the retail maize prices were average to 23 percent above the five-year average, except in Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, and Kwale, where they were nearly 10 percent below average due to the availability of the long rains harvest. 

Similarly to maize, in July, wholesale bean prices were generally above-average nationwide, but retail prices more mixed and reflective of local production. Bean prices were consistent with the five-year average in Nairobi and 7 percent above average in Kisumu, driven by the long rains harvest availability in the South Rift and western Kenya. In pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, retail prices of beans in July were average to 24 percent above average, except in Meru (Meru North), where prices were 9 percent below average due to increased market supply from the long rains local harvests.

The retail prices of goats are 16-50 percent above the five-year average in pastoral areas (except in Turkana, where prices are average), driven by low supply and good-to-fair body conditions, and supporting favorable goat-to-maize terms of trade (TOT). In most pastoral areas, the sale of one mature medium-sized goat in July could purchase 54-87 kilograms (kg) of maize compared to the five-year average (45-67 kg); in Marsabit, the sale of one goat purchases 101 kg of maize, relative to the average of 73 kg. In Turkana, TOT were down, with the sale of one goat able to purchase just 33 kg of maize compared to the normal 42 kg. Despite favorable TOT in pastoral areas, households continue to limit livestock sales to preserve their herd sizes. The inability to capitalize on the favorable TOT, coupled with limited income from milk sales, will limit food access for poor households. 

Interannual assistance:  The Hunger Safety Net Program (HSNP) implemented by NDMA will continue to provide 5,400 KES (approximately 42 USD) every two months to 125,000 households in Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, and Samburu. Additionally, around 1.15 million older persons, orphans, and persons living with disability are receiving 2,000 KES (approximately 16 USD) monthly under the Inua Jamii Program through the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection.

Humanitarian assistance: WFP ended cash transfers to refugees in Dadaab, Kakuma, and Kalobeyei refugee camps between May and June 2025. As of June, food assistance was being distributed to over 700,000 refugees across the three camps. From August, WFP has begun implementing a differentiated assistance approach to food assistance in which the refugees have been assessed and categorised into four distinct categories according to level of vulnerability: Category 1 (Vulnerable households), Category 2 (Households with limited potential to meet basic needs), Category 3 (Partially self-reliant households), and Category 4 (Self-reliant households). Although the initial plan was to have Categories 1-4 receive 60, 40, 20, and 0 percent rations, respectively, this has not been possible due to funding constraints.  In August, Categories 1 and 2  received 40 percent and 20 percent food rations, respectively, while Categories 3 and 4 are received no food rations. 

FEWS NET’s scenario development process is used to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

• Global ensemble forecasts indicate that the 2025 October to December short rains are likely to be below average in most areas, particularly so in eastern Kenya, resulting from a likely negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) through December with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions on the cusp between neutral and La Niña through September, with a chance of La Niña beginning in October.
• Global ensemble forecasts suggest that above-average land surface temperatures will persist through January 2026 and will likely range between 0.5-1.0 degrees Celsius above average.
• The February to September long rains in the unimodal high and medium potential areas of the North Rift and Western Kenya (Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Nandi, Nakuru, Elgeyo Marakwet, and parts of Bungoma and Kakamega counties) are likely to be above average.
• The availability of pastures, browse, and water resources in the pastoral areas will remain atypically low through January 2026, driven by persistent above-average land surface temperatures and below-average October-December short rains. Return trekking distances to watering points will likely be above average throughout the scenario period, coupled with decreased watering frequencies for livestock. However, short-lived improvements are anticipated in November during the peak of the short rains. Due to declining availability of rangeland resources, low-intensity conflicts over access and grazing rights in the conflict-prone areas of Turkana, Baringo, Samburu, and Marsabit are likely between August and October.
• Livestock body conditions in the pastoral areas are likely to be slightly below average due to the low availability of rangeland resources, resulting in atypically low milk production despite short-lived improvements from the short rains.
• Livestock prices in the pastoral areas are likely to follow seasonal trends but remain above average, driven by reduced sales as households seek to improve their herd sizes.
• Poor crop development and below-average harvests are expected in the marginal agricultural areas, given the forecast below-average short rains. In the unimodal high and medium potential areas of the North Rift and Western Kenya, average to above-average production is expected between October and early December.
• Wholesale maize prices are likely to remain at average to above-average levels, due to the prevailing tight market supply amid high demand for both human consumption and animal feed, despite the government allowing duty-free importation of yellow maize totaling 495,000 MT for the latter. High fuel prices, such as the recent increase in diesel prices, are expected to contribute to elevated prices. However, the availability of unimodal production from the North Rift and western Kenya will moderate prices from November onwards across the country.
• The planned, and likely funded Hunger Safety Net Program (HSNP), is expected to continue benefiting approximately 125,000 households in Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, and likely funded Hunger Safety Net Program (HSNP) Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, and Samburu. The government will also support 1.15 million older persons, orphans, and persons living with disability throughout the country under the Inua Jamii Program through the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection.
• Humanitarian food assistance for refugees is expected to remain at the recently reduced levels observed in August, with Categories 1 (Vulnerable households) and 2 (Households with limited potential to meet basic needs) receiving 40 percent and 20 percent food rations, respectively, and Categories 3 (Partially self-reliant households) and 4  (Self-reliant households) receiving no food rations.

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. 

Pastoral areas:

Between August and September, persistent below-average incomes will drive area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in pastoral areas, except in Turkana, Marsabit, and Mandera, where area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected as the lean season continues to undermine recovery from the impacts of the previous droughts. As the August-November lean season progresses, the increasingly limited availability of rangeland resources is expected to drive livestock body conditions and productivity to below-normal levels, resulting in below-average availability of milk for consumption and sale. Despite the expected average to above-average livestock prices, most households will opt to retain their animals to prioritize breeding and increase their herd sizes, resulting in below-average incomes. Staple food prices are expected to remain above average, and most poor households will face constrained purchasing capacities and limited access to food. Consequently, poor households are likely to engage in coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2), such as consuming less preferred food and reducing meal frequency. The worst-affected households are expected to engage in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse strategies, such as borrowing food or prioritizing feeding children.

From October to January, expanded area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in Turkana, Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Garissa, and Marsabit; Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in Samburu, Isiolo, and West Pokot. Livestock are expected to return to typical wet season grazing areas from the onset of the short rains in October, but the below-average rains and above-average temperatures will provide only modest improvements; early depletion of pasture resources will sustain below-average body conditions and trigger atypically early movements back into the dry season grazing areas by early January. Herd sizes will remain atypically low despite anticipated normal birth rates between October and early November. While short-lived improvements in milk production are expected during the kidding and calving period, overall limited recovery in body condition and low herd sizes will drive below-average household milk availability and sales incomes. Livestock prices are likely to remain average to above average due to low supply, but sales will be limited as households refrain from selling to rebuild their herds. Staple food prices are expected to remain atypically high due to strong demand and elevated transport costs, despite likely moderation by the unimodal area harvests and cross-border inflows from Uganda and Tanzania. Households are likely to atypically engage in off-own-farm income-earning activities, such as herding for wealthy and middle-income households; however, incomes will generally be insufficient to meet the atypically high food prices. Poor households in pastoral areas are likely to engage in coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2), such as consuming less preferred food and reducing meal frequency. In Turkana, Wajir, Tana River, Mandera, Garissa, and Marsabit, one in five households is expected to be worst affected, engaging in coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse, such as borrowing food or prioritizing feeding children. In Samburu, Isiolo, and West Pokot, higher access to agropastoral livelihoods, together with closer proximity to higher-potential agricultural areas, will prevent these regions’ area-level outcomes from deteriorating to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Through the projection period, the prevalence of acute malnutrition will likely range from Serious (GAM WHZ 10-14.9 percent or MUAC 5-9.9 percent) to Critical (GAM WHZ 15-29.9 percent or MUAC 10-14.9 percent), largely driven by limited dietary diversity and meal frequency, poor sanitation and childcare practices, and a high disease burden.

Marginal agricultural areas:

Through September, area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected as households start to deplete food stocks and progressively increase market reliance atypically early. Food stocks are likely to last only through September, compared to the normal November/December, and drive an atypically early increase in market dependence. Purchasing capacity will be constrained by low incomes from reduced crop sales, minimal post-harvest income-earning opportunities, and non-food demands (such as payment of school-related expenses), but minimally adequate food consumption will be achieved by engaging in off-own-farm income-earning activities such as petty trade and charcoal and firewood production and sales. With elevated staple food prices expected to persist, most poor households will face constrained access to adequate and diverse diets. Consequently, households will increase their reliance on coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2), such as consuming less preferred and less expensive foods, reducing portion sizes, and purchasing food on credit. The worst-affected poor households are likely to engage in coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3), such as borrowing food or consuming seed stocks. 

Beginning in October, area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist, with worst-affected households likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Better-off and middle-income households will start planting for the short rains agricultural season, seasonally increasing demand for agricultural wage labor for planting, weeding, and spraying. Despite income from these activities, poor households are expected to face income deficits due to limited crop sales, which will limit their ability to purchase certified seeds, pesticides, and fertilizers for their own farms. The forecast below-average short rains are expected to drive below-average crop development, which in turn will drive below-average demand for, and income from, agricultural labor, expected to decline progressively starting in mid-November. Households are likely to increase their reliance on off-own-farm income-earning activities such as petty trade and production and sale of charcoal and firewood, but income deficits will persist due to high levels of competition. Amid anticipated atypically high market dependence, low incomes and elevated staple food prices will continue to constrain household purchasing capacity and food access. The availability of green harvests (maize, beans, and cowpeas) in late December and early dry harvests in January 2026 will provide short-term improvements in household food availability; however, anticipated below-average overall production is expected to be insufficient to adequately replenish household food stocks. Limited stocks and incomes will restrict household food consumption and dietary diversity, and households are expected to continue engaging in coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2), such as consuming less preferred and less expensive foods, borrowing money, and purchasing food on credit. Throughout the projection period, the prevalence of acute malnutrition is expected to range from Acceptable (GAM WHZ <5 percent or MUAC <5 percent) to Alert (GAM WHZ 5-9.9 percent or MUAC <5 percent), primarily driven by poor dietary diversity and reduced meal frequency. 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

A significantly below-average October to December short rains season will drive further constrictions of income sources amid elevated staple food prices and limited coping capacity, not only increasing the number of poor households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Turkana, Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Garissa, and Marsabit, but also likely driving widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the remaining pastoral areas. The likely poor replenishment of rangeland resources in pastoral areas will restrict livestock to dry season grazing areas and drive a rapid deterioration in body condition, productivity, and sale values. Livestock migrations in atypically high numbers will occur as early as late November and reach atypical areas such as Kitui, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, and Meru North in the southeast, Taita Taveta in the coastal marginal agricultural areas, as well as into western Somalia and eastern parts of Uganda. Conflicts over grazing rights and with farmers in the marginal agricultural areas are likely, resulting in crop destruction and localized displacements. Low household milk availability and low incomes from livestock and milk sales, combined with above-average staple food prices, will increase the number of poor households having poor food consumption and limited dietary diversity. Widespread adoption of coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC phase 3) or worse, such as prioritizing feeding children and livestock distress sales, is expected.

In the marginal agricultural areas, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely occur in Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta, and Lamu, driven by significantly low household food stocks and further strains in income opportunities. The number of poor households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the rest of the marginal agricultural areas is also expected to increase starting in November. The significantly below-average rains will limit crop production and availability of agricultural wage labor opportunities, reducing incomes. Increased competition for off-own-farm income-earning activities will further reduce incomes. The widening food consumption gaps and poor dietary diversity will likely drive the prevalence of acute malnutrition to Alert (GAM WHZ 5-9.9 percent or MUAC <5 percent) in most areas.