Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral regions, despite favorable long rains

• The 2026 March-May long rains began 10-30 days early (in mid-February), with cumulative totals exceeding 150 percent of average across much of the country as of April 30 (Figure 1). Most of the rainfall occurred in February and March and was largely below-average in April, though sporadic heavy downpours still occurred which continued to cause flash floods across the country. As of late April, widespread damage to infrastructure has occurred, including to roads and drainage systems, especially in Nairobi, with news outlets reporting at least 112 fatalities and 68,000 people displaced.  

• The early onset of rain led to gradual improvements in forage and water conditions atypically early in pastoral areas, offering relief after five months of extreme dryness and persistently high temperatures. At the end of April, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) exceeded 110 percent of the long-term mean in most of the eastern and northern pastoral areas. At the end of April, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Point Viewer recorded most water points above long-term median levels. 

• Long rains crop production activities started early across most areas due to the early onset of rainfall. In the bimodal marginal agricultural areas, crop development is progressing well; however in unimodal areas, shortages and delayed delivery of fertilizers due to the conflict in the Middle East caused delayed planting for many farmers. Reports indicate that these shortages were most pronounced in the North Rift and western Kenya.   

• Fuel prices in Kenya have risen sharply, driven by disruptions to supplies stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, with the increase driving broader inflation. In mid-April, gasoline (petrol) and diesel prices increased by 11 and 18 percent, respectively, over March prices. The surge in fuel prices has pushed transport and production costs higher. According to the Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry, passenger bus fares have increased by as much as 25 percent, logistics firms are raising inland freight charges, and manufacturing and agricultural production costs have increased by 15-30 percent. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, year-on-year inflation in April is 5.6 percent (up from 4.4 percent in March), while month-on-month inflation is 1.4 percent (from 0.5 percent in March), with the rising cost of food and fuel the key inflation drivers.  

• Staple food prices remain generally elevated countrywide, driven by high transport costs and atypically high market dependence. This elevated demand is due to early exhaustion of food stocks from the extremely poor short rains production. In March, maize wholesale prices in the urban markets of Nairobi, Mombasa, Eldoret, and Kisumu ranged from 7-23 percent above five-year averages, while wholesale prices of beans were mixed, ranging from 12 percent below average (Mombasa) to 36 percent above average (Kisumu). Across pastoral areas, maize retail prices were 7-21 percent above the five-year average in March, while in the marginal agricultural areas they ranged from 10-21 percent above the five-year averages in most of the areas. 

• Livestock prices in most pastoral areas are high and rising, remaining broadly above the five-year averages. The sustained high prices are driven by below-average herd sizes and further reduced sales as households seek to rebuild herds and restore body conditions in response to improving availability of forage and water. In March, goat prices were 27-71 percent above the five-year averages except in Wajir (average) and Mandera (14 percent below average). Similarly, goat-to-maize terms of trade (TOT) were 14-57 percent above the five-year averages, but 22 percent below in Wajir and 19 percent below in Mandera. Despite the favorable livestock TOT, sales remain limited by low herd sizes and most households are choosing to reduce sales in favor of rebuilding their herds and improving body conditions. 

Humanitarian food assistance 

• WFP humanitarian food assistance to refugees continues at the February 2026 adjusted ration sizes, with households in Category 1 and 2 receiving 80 and 60 percent of the Minimum Food Basket, respectively. Category 3 households continue to receive 20 percent, while Category 4 and unclassified households receive none. 

• The Kenya government continues to provide humanitarian food assistance to households in need (identified by local administration – chiefs and their assistants - and community members) in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), as well as households affected by floods across the country. Data from key informants indicate that in March the government distributed 3,520 metric tons (MT) of rice, 3,447 MT of dry beans, and 843 MT of maize grain to households in need across 41 counties. The amount of food distributed could meet the minimum 2,100 kilocalories per person per day for 435,135 people for one month. If providing just 50 percent of daily kilocaloric need — a typical emergency ration — this distribution could reach twice as many. 
   

Most of the assumptions that underpinned FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario for the Kenya Food Security Outlook from February to September 2026 remain valid; however, the following updates have been made to incorporate new evidence:

• Based on observed conditions and the forecast for May, cumulative March to May long rains are expected to be above average in the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, despite the below-average rains in April, driven largely by the above-average rains received in February and March. 
• Fuel prices are expected to remain elevated and volatile through at least September, although the trajectory of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East remains uncertain. Even as the Kenyan government seeks international financial assistance to cushion against rising fuel prices, the government’s response capacity will be restricted by funding delays due to unmet donor conditions amid dwindling foreign currency reserves. Elevated fuel prices are expected to continue increasing the cost of agricultural production, locally manufactured goods, transport, and related logistics, while higher shipping costs will exert upward pressure on prices of imported goods, including food commodities. Consequently, broader inflationary pressures are likely to persist, constraining household purchasing capacities. At the same time, fertilizer shortages stemming from supply disruptions that have already delayed planting in some areas in the unimodal high- and medium-potential areas of the North Rift and western Kenya are expected to also constrain fertilizer application at critical points in crop growth.  

Pastoral areas: 

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to continue across the pastoral areas through September, despite improvement driven by the March-May long rains. Acute malnutrition prevalence is also expected to remain Critical (global acute malnutrition [GAM] using weight-for-height z-scores [WHZ] 15-29.9 percent) across most of the pastoral areas, except in Mandera, Turkana South, and North Horr in Marsabit, where it is expected to be Extremely Critical (GAM WHZ >29.9 percent). The ongoing March-May long rains are regenerating pasture, browse, and water resources, supporting improvements in livestock body conditions and milk production that are expected to continue through the end of May. Household milk availability, consumption, and sales income are improving but remain below average due to low herd sizes and livestock birth rates following poor conception during the historic poor October-December 2025 short rains. 
• Between June and September, the dry season and continuing above-average temperatures will drive atypically fast deterioration of rangeland resources, causing pasture, browse, and water to become scarce. From August, intensive livestock migration to dry-season grazing areas is expected, which will increase competition for rangeland resources and heighten the risk of conflict in hotspot areas. Livestock body conditions and productivity will decline, depressing livestock prices and milk production and limiting household income from sales. Household milk consumption will also decline as livestock reside in dry-season grazing areas away from households. At the same time, staple food prices are expected to remain above average through September, driven by declining stocks from unimodal production areas, persistent strong demand for maize driven by competing uses for human food and livestock feed, and high transport costs. The combination of reduced milk availability and constrained income amid high staple food prices will restrict household food access to market purchases, resulting in consumption gaps. To mitigate consumption deficits, pastoral households are expected to expand off-own-farm income activities such as selling firewood, charcoal, and construction poles and engaging in labor migration, in addition to adopting livelihood coping strategies such as reducing expenditure on health and veterinary care. 

Marginal agricultural areas: 

• In Lamu, Kitui, Makueni, and Meru (Meru North), outcomes are expected to improve from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) by June as long rains harvests become available and boost food consumption. Other marginal agricultural areas will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September. Average to above-average rainfall to date has supported good crop development and is expected to continue through the season’s end in May. Demand for agricultural wage labor for second weeding, harvesting, and post-harvesting activities is anticipated to remain strong through August, providing poor households with income. Beginning in June, the availability of green harvests of maize and pulses such as beans and cowpeas will begin to improve household food consumption and lower households’ dependence on market purchases. The main harvests in late July-August are expected to be average in most areas, replenishing household food stocks and reducing market dependency. Crop sales will further improve household incomes, supporting access to more diverse and nutritious food commodities. Concurrently, improved milk availability and consumption are expected to gradually reduce the prevalence of acute malnutrition, which is expected to remain within Acceptable (GAM WHZ <5 percent) to Alert (GAM WHZ 5-9.9 percent) levels. However, high household indebtedness stemming from credit purchases of food, seeds, and other inputs during previous poor seasons is expected to drive accelerated crop sales, causing household stocks to run low by the end of September. Overall, while improvements in household food availability, income, and purchasing capacities will support minimally adequate food consumption through September, persistent indebtedness will continue to constrain households’ ability to meet their essential non-food needs without engaging in stress-coping strategies. 

Refugee camps: 

• Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected to persist through September in the Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps and Kalobeyei settlement, with ongoing humanitarian assistance preventing worse outcomes. Under the Differentiated Assistance approach, WFP food assistance is expected to continue covering 80 percent of the minimum food consumption needs for refugee households in Category 1, 60 percent for Category 2, and 20 percent for Category 3 through September. Because most refugee households lack resources to produce their own food on a meaningful scale and have limited income sources to supplement humanitarian food assistance, widespread consumption gaps are likely to continue. Furthermore, due to sharply reduced support since 2025 for non‑food items — such as cooking fuel and medication — and limited income-earning opportunities in the camps, many households are likely to sell or barter part of their food rations to meet essential non‑food needs.