Kenya
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- Drought conditions will be the primary driver of widespread, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes across northern and eastern Kenya through May. Poor pastoral households are expected to be the most immediately and severely affected, with the number of areas in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and the number of households experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) expected to increase through May. In southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas of Kitui, Makueni, and Lamu, the short rains harvests in February are expected to be below average, marking the third consecutive poor production season and leading to the emergence of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes between February and May.
- In pastoral areas, the anomalous low rainfall coupled with persistent above-average temperatures have driven declines in rangeland resources rather than the typical seasonal regeneration. According to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), vegetation greenness widely remains below the 20-year average. The U.S. Geological Survey Water Point Viewer data for November indicate virtually all monitored water sources in eastern Kenya are in “near dry” or “alert” status, despite November being the typical peak of the short rains. The shortage of forage and water is perpetuating below-average livestock body conditions and productivity. In southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas, pulses would typically be flowering and maize would be waist-high by this point in the season; however, plants are still in the emergent stages of crop development.
- In pastoral regions, no meaningful improvement in rangeland resources is expected this short rains season, driving below-average household milk availability, consumption, and reduced offspring survival rates, which will in turn maintain low household herd sizes. Above-average temperatures are expected to accelerate rangeland deterioration from early December, further driving declines in body conditions and productivity. From mid-March, the long rains will begin restoring rangelands, but biomass will remain below average, limiting productivity and thus milk availability and sales. In southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas, very poor harvests will lead to below-average income from crop sales, which in turn will drive poor households to increasingly depend on agricultural labor and off-own-farm activities for income. However, poor crop development will most likely drive below-average agricultural labor demand, limiting opportunities for income with which they can purchase food.
- Pastoralists are still working to rebuild herd sizes, which remain below average in the wake of the 2021-2023 drought that drove a surge in livestock deaths and distress sales. Low herd sizes and poor body conditions will limit income from livestock sales, reducing household purchasing power, limiting food access, and driving increased reliance on livelihood and consumption-based coping strategies. In the southeastern marginal agricultural areas, extremely poor yields will be insufficient to replenish food stocks, driving atypically early dependence on markets for food. However, restricted opportunities for earning income and average to above-average food prices will limit purchasing power, which will in turn constrain food access, limit poor households’ food consumption, and increase reliance on livelihood and consumption-based coping strategies.
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Source: FEWS NET
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Source: FEWS NET
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Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Kenya FEWS NET Analysis Note November 2025: Impacts of Dry Conditions on Food Security in Kenya, October 2025 - May 2026, 2025.
An analysis note is a FEWS NET product that provides targeted information on food security-related issues across FEWS NET geographies.