Elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) continues in South Sudan, Yemen, and Somalia

• In January, the South Sudan IPC Technical Working Group (TWG) raised concerns that Famine (IPC Phase 5) could be ongoing in parts of central Unity. Upon reviewing the analysis, the IPC’s Emergency Review Committee (ERC) concluded that while available evidence was insufficient to make a Famine determination following IPC protocols, Famine (IPC Phase 5) was likely occurring in Leer, possibly occurring in Koch, and that humanitarian assistance was preventing Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Mayendit. Based on these ERC conclusions, the South Sudan TWG declared that Famine (IPC Phase 5) was the most likely outcome in Leer and Mayendit during the February-July period. 

• Yemen continues to face the largest food security emergency in the world, with large populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity, the latter of which is associated with an increased risk of excess mortality. In a worst-case scenario, where food imports drop significantly below requirement levels or where conflict prevents trade and humanitarian access to populations for an extended period of time, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is possible.

• Large areas of Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, and northeastern Kenya are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between February and September 2017, with some areas of Somalia in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), due to impacts of drought in 2016 on agriculture and livestock. In January, FEWS NET and FSNAU released joint statements on deteriorating food security in Somalia and the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in a worst-case scenario in which the April to June 2017 Gu season performs very poorly, purchasing power declines to levels seen in 2010/11, and humanitarian assistance is unable to reach populations in need. 

• Displacement and restrictions on trade and livelihoods activities will likely lead to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in parts of Jebel Marra in some Darfur areas of Sudan, as well as in South Kordofan where 2016 harvests were also below average. Below-average harvests in 2016 are likely to lead to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes in parts of Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania, as well as areas of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in parts of Uganda. 

Ethiopia

• Many poor households in southeastern Ethiopia will face food consumption gaps and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity between February and September 2017, in the absence of humanitarian assistance, following very poor performance of the October to December 2016 Deyr/Hageya season and resulting negative impacts on pasture and water resources, livestock productivity and livestock-to-cereal terms of trade. Some worst-affected households in Warder and Korahe Zones in Somali Region are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and face increased acute malnutrition in the absence of assistance between June and September 2017.
• Meher 2016/17 harvests are estimated to be near average in most western areas of Ethiopia. However, in parts of eastern and central Oromia, northeastern SNNPR, and eastern Amhara, well below-average Meher harvests will lead to significantly reduced household food access and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity between February and September 2017.
• The 2017 Humanitarian Requirements Document released by the Government of Ethiopia estimates 5.6 million people will require emergency food assistance through June 2017, with funding requirements of approximately $948 million USD. According to the HRD, the number of people in need of emergency assistance are expected to be highest in Oromia Region, followed by Somali and SNNP Regions.

For more information, see the Food Security Outlook from February to September 2017.

Kenya

• According to the January 2017 Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) short rains assessment, which included FEWS NET, large areas of the country are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food security outcomes and atypical high food assistance needs, mainly in the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, following the poor October – December 2016 rainy season.
• An atypical deterioration of acute food insecurity is expected in the majority of pastoral areas, including northwestern, northeastern, northern, and southeastern regions between February and April, with many poor households likely to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes. There is also the possibility that some localized poor households in parts of Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, and Garissa could experience Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in the absence of emergency food assistance, especially during the February to April and July to September periods.
• Additionally, while many northern pastoral areas of Kenya have frequently experienced “Critical” levels of acute malnutrition in recent years, the “Critical” and “Extremely Critical” levels of acute malnutrition currently observed in northern areas are very important to note for response purposes.
• Coastal and southeastern marginal agricultural areas are also expected to experience an atypical decline in food security due to the significantly below-average short rains crop production, depleted food stocks, and reduced on-farm casual labor opportunities. Some households in parts of Kilifi and Lamu are projected to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes through April, and between July and September, while the other marginal agricultural areas will likely remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September.

For more information, see the Food Security Outlook from February to September 2017.

Somalia

• In January, FEWS NET and FSNAU released joint statements on deteriorating food security in Somalia and the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in a worst-case scenario in which the April to June 2017 Gu season performs very poorly, purchasing power declines to levels seen in 2010/11, and humanitarian assistance is unable to reach populations in need. In the most likely scenario, though, agropastoral areas of Bay/Bakool and Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone are expected to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, and associated risk of increased mortality, through September.
• The April to June Gu season is currently forecast to be slightly below average. Terms of trade in southern regions are expected to decline significantly, and may be only slightly better than 2011 levels. Terms of trade in northern regions will be slightly more favorable, given stable rice prices.
• Humanitarian access is relatively better than in 2011 and humanitarian partners are present in previously inaccessible areas of southern Somalia. Humanitarian partners distributed emergency assistance to over 1,079,000 beneficiaries in February, reaching over 50 percent of the need in many areas of Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone and 35 percent of the need in Baidoa, two areas of high concern.
• An estimated 2,912,000 people will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phases 4) acute food insecurity between now and the peak of the agricultural lean season in June. Urgent humanitarian assistance is needed to save lives and livelihoods.
• The ongoing drought has led to high levels of internal and external displacement. According to recent reports by UNHCR, an estimated 256,000 people are newly displaced within Somalia, the majority of whom are in Mudug, Bay, and Banadir (Mogadishu). People have also sought refuge in Dolo Ado camp in Ethiopia, where the over 4,100 Somalis have arrived since January 2017.
• The scarcity of safe drinking water has led to an outbreak of AWD/cholera. According to WHO, there have been 10,571 cases reported and 269 deaths since January 2017. Nearly half of all cases where reported in Bay, and the majority of these cases were in Baidoa town where crowding of newly displaced households is likely exacerbating the outbreak.
• FSNAU plans to conduct SMART surveys in Bay Agropastoral, Northern Inland Pastoral, Bakool Pastoral livelihood zones, Baidoa IDPs and Mogadishu IDPs in early April. The results of these integrated surveys will update the malnutrition, mortality and food security status of these areas. 

For more information, see the Food Security Outlook from February to September 2017.

South Sudan

• In January, the South Sudan IPC Technical Working Group (TWG) raised concerns that Famine (IPC Phase 5) could be ongoing in parts of central Unity. Upon reviewing the analysis, the IPC’s Emergency Review Committee (ERC) concluded that while available evidence was insufficient to make a Famine determination following IPC protocols, Famine (IPC Phase 5) was likely occurring in Leer, possibly occurring in Koch, and that humanitarian assistance was preventing Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Mayendit. Based on these ERC conclusions, the South Sudan TWG declared that Famine (IPC Phase 5) was the most likely outcome in Leer and Mayendit during the February-July period.
• Due to assistance delivered in February, it is likely that Mayendit remains in Emergency (IPC Phase 4!). Humanitarian actors gained access to Leer in late February - beneficiaries have been registered for assistance and distributions have begun. As of early March, no access has been granted to Koch.
• The ability to deliver assistance to highly food insecure areas is likely to remain volatile throughout 2017, as highlighted by the recent evacuation of aid workers from Mayendit. In the absence of large-scale humanitarian assistance, Famine is likely in Mayendit and Panyijiar and expected to continue in Leer and Koch through at least July.
• An estimated 3.8 million people are currently facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes or worse across South Sudan, and the size of the food insecure population is expected to rise to 5.5 million during the May to July lean season due to a combination of poor production, limited livelihoods options, and food prices which are expected to remain five to ten times above the five-year average.
• A number of areas outside of central Unity are also expected to face severe food insecurity across the February to July period. In Northern Bahr el Ghazal, food security outcomes in December 2016 were worse than at the same time in 2015, despite a four-fold increase in food assistance. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected in these areas during the lean season. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, and the associated risk of increased mortality, are also anticipated in parts of Western Bahr el Ghazal, Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Central Equatoria.

For more information, see the Food Security Outlook from February to September 2017.

Sudan

• Most areas of Sudan will likely remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity between February and September 2017, thanks to above-average harvests, normal access to seasonal agricultural labor and near-normal purchasing power. However, parts of South Kordofan and Darfur’s Jebel Marra are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and will likely deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) as newly displaced people missed the cultivation season, insecurity has disrupted trade, and staple food prices remain higher than normal.
• Based on preliminary results from the joint Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) led by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MoA&F) and FAO, national 2016/17 cereal production is estimated at nearly 8 million MT. This represents an increase of more than 70 percent compared to the recent five-year average and more than double the El Niño-affected 2015/16 season. However, erratic rainfall and resulting dry spells led to locally below-average production, particularly in parts of South Kordofan and North Darfur states.
• In January 2017, the U.S. government partially lifted the 20-year-old economic sanctions against Sudan, based in part on improved security conditions in conflict-affected states of Sudan and relative improvements in humanitarian access. Nevertheless, humanitarian access in SPLM-N-controlled areas of South Kordofan and Blue Nile states remains limited.
• Unilateral ceasefires declared by the Government of Sudan and armed opposition groups have reduced conflict and population displacements in South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and the Darfur states. However, conflict and severe food insecurity in South Sudan has caused substantial influxes of refugees into Sudan, including the arrival of 32,000 new refugees since the beginning of 2017.

For more information, see the Food Security Outlook from February to September 2017.

Uganda

• During the February to June lean season, very poor households in Moroto and Napak are expected to face food consumption gaps and be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In these areas, poorly distributed rainfall led to below-average production and very poor households depleted food stocks three months earlier than normal. Many are facing increasing difficulty purchasing sufficient food to meet their basic needs, as food prices are 30-40 percent above average. Food security is expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in July with the green harvest.
• In Teso, Busoga, and east-central regions of bimodal Uganda, poor households experienced two consecutive seasons of below-average production. Household food stocks were depleted in January, four months earlier than normal. Many are engaged in casual labor opportunities and are selling additional livestock to fund food purchases, but face atypically high food prices. Poor households are able to minimally meet their basic food needs, but lack income to afford some essential non-food needs and are Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
• Uganda now hosts over 750,000 South Sudanese refugees, the majority of whom arrived after July 2016, following the outbreak of conflict in Greater Equatoria. Most refugees are heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance and are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). Available funding only guarantees assistance at current levels through March, and in the absence of humanitarian assistance, refugees would likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

For more information, see the Food Security Outlook from February to September 2017.

Yemen

• Yemen continues to face the largest food security emergency in the world, with large populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity, the latter of which is associated with an increased risk of excess mortality. IDP populations and poor households in conflict zones are likely facing the most severe food security outcomes.
• Recent food import data suggest that food imports into Al Hudaydah port have recently declined sharply. As this port supplies many key markets in western Yemen, these declining imports raise concerns about future supply levels and food prices at markets that rely on this port as a source.
• Large-scale humanitarian assistance has likely played an important role in limiting food insecurity outcomes to Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) in several governorates, instead of Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Should the macroeconomic situation and conflict continue at similar levels, and should humanitarian assistance provision not be maintained or scaled-up in the near- to medium-term, food security outcomes are likely to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) for many areas across western Yemen by September 2017.
• Given the fluid nature of the conflict in Yemen, food security outcomes are difficult to project. In a worst-case scenario, there are possible events that could cause a severe deterioration in food consumption, malnutrition, and excess mortality for much larger populations, driving outcomes in line with Famine (IPC Phase 5). Possible scenarios that could drive these types of severe outcomes include, but are not limited to: 1) a significant decline in commercial staple food imports below requirement levels, or 2) a major increase in conflict levels or change in conflict location that cuts off populations from trade and humanitarian assistance for an extended period of time.

Remote Monitoring Countries[1]

Burundi

• Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity is expected to persist through September 2017, among poor households in most areas of Rwanda, following ongoing harvests. However, below-average Season A rains have decreased maize yields up to 20 percent in the East Congo Nile Highland Subsistence and the Eastern Semi-arid Agropastoral zones. Reduced household food access is likely to lead to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in Kirehe, Gatsibo, and Kayonza districts during the April to May lean season, but the Season B harvest in June is expected to improve food security outcomes.
• While food prices declined seasonally in most markets across the country, following harvests in December and January, the decline has been moderated by below-average production in eastern parts of the country. Food prices are anticipated to rise atypically early, toward the end of March, exacerbated by highly priced regional imports, limiting poor household access.
• According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of February 9, Rwanda hosted 84,873 refugees, the majority from Burundi. The severity of acute food insecurity of refugees, situated in southern Rwanda and Kigali, is classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3). An expanded humanitarian assistance provision is required to bridge current funding gaps of over 50 percent. While the rate of arrivals has declined significantly over the past couple of months, camp capacities have exceeded basic amenities.

For more information, see the Remote Monitoring Report for February 2017.

Djibouti

• The cumulative performance of Xays/Daada rains (October to February) was slightly below-average, but together with favorable 2016 Karan/Karma rainfall, has contributed to marked improvements of livestock ownership across Djibouti, except in Dikhil region, improving household incomes and food and milk access. As a result, the majority of poor households are expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through May 2017, ahead of the lean season.
• Persistent poor pastoral conditions in Ali Sabieh and Dikhil regions, and limited market access in northern Obock due to its remoteness, has kept many poor households in these areas in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). During the lean season from May to September, when income-earning opportunities are at their lowest, the number of poor households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in these areas is expected to increase. 
• Djibouti continues to host over 18,000 refugees, who rely on humanitarian assistance, mainly from WFP and UNHCR, and are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to projected funding shortfalls. According to UNHCR, the country also hosts about 18,550 transit migrants, who are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes as well. In addition, approximately 4,500 new Ethiopian asylum-seekers, primarily from Oromia, were recently registered by UNHCR in Ali Addeh and Holl Holl refugee camps.

For more information, see the Remote Monitoring Report for February 2017.

Rwanda

• Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity is expected to persist through September 2017, among poor households in most areas of Rwanda, following ongoing harvests. However, below-average Season A rains have decreased maize yields up to 20 percent in the East Congo Nile Highland Subsistence and the Eastern Semi-arid Agropastoral zones. Reduced household food access is likely to lead to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in Kirehe, Gatsibo, and Kayonza districts during the April to May lean season, but the Season B harvest in June is expected to improve food security outcomes.
• While food prices declined seasonally in most markets across the country, following harvests in December and January, the decline has been moderated by below-average production in eastern parts of the country. Food prices are anticipated to rise atypically early, toward the end of March, exacerbated by highly priced regional imports, limiting poor household access.
• According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of February 9, Rwanda hosted 84,873 refugees, the majority from Burundi. The severity of acute food insecurity of refugees, situated in southern Rwanda and Kigali, is classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3). An expanded humanitarian assistance provision is required to bridge current funding gaps of over 50 percent. While the rate of arrivals has declined significantly over the past couple of months, camp capacities have exceeded basic amenities.

For more information, see the Remote Monitoring Report for February 2017.

Tanzania

• Following well below-average Vuli production, poor households in Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Pwani, and Tanga regions are likely to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through May, until the Msimu harvest eases staple food prices. Over half of the maize crop is lost, following marked rainfall deficits through most of the Vuli season. However, with improved food availability in July, following the Msimu and Masika harvests, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) is expected to prevail across the country, except for the refugee population, which is projected to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September.
• Maize and rice prices rose uncharacteristically in January across markets, while bean prices declined marginally, following harvests in December and January. Poor Vuli production is expected to sustain high staple food prices as households rely on the market even earlier for food purchases until the Msimu harvest begins in May in the southern surplus-producing highlands.
• According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of February 12, Tanzania hosted 290,000 refugees, about 226,000 from Burundi. An average of 600 people arrived daily during February, which was a significant drop from previous months. Funding gaps that persisted during 2016 have been moderated somewhat by additional funding, and a full pipeline break anticipated in March was averted.

For more information, see the Remote Monitoring Report for February 2017.