Needs rise in East Africa, with Famine confirmed in part of Al Fasher, Sudan

• In June, humanitarian needs rose in several parts of East Africa as the peak of the lean season approaches, driven by intensifying conflict, localized flooding, poor macroeconomic conditions, and the longstanding impacts of the 2020-2023 Horn of Africa drought. For only the fourth time globally, Famine (IPC Phase 5) has been confirmed with reasonable evidence, this time in in Zamzam camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs), and is likely ongoing in two additional camps in the besieged area of Al Fasher in North Darfur – Abu Shouk and Al Salam camps. Meanwhile, there is a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in other parts of Sudan – including in Al Fasher locality of North Darfur, areas of Greater Darfur and South Kordofan hosting high concentrations of displaced persons, and parts of West Darfur and Khartoum – as well as in South Sudan. In northern Ethiopia, if current levels of food assistance and social support decline or are disrupted, more extreme outcomes could occur through August, ahead of the meher harvest. Otherwise, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) will likely be widespread through January 2025. 
• In Sudan, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is confirmed to be currently ongoing in the Zamzam camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the besieged locality of Al Fasher, North Darfur, based on reasonable evidence that the Famine thresholds were passed in June. It is possible Famine (IPC Phase 5) is also ongoing in Abu Shouk and Al Salam IDP camps, though data is too limited to confirm or deny this classification; at a minimum, many IDPs are experiencing starvation indicative of Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Famine (IPC Phase 5) is expected to continue in these areas through at least October and, in the absence of large-scale food assistance and an end to intense conflict, will possibly extend into the harvest and post-harvest seasons beyond October. FEWS NET also assesses there is a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) across the rest of Al Fasher, in areas with high concentrations of displaced persons across Greater Darfur and South Kordofan, and in parts of West Darfur and Khartoum if conflict, coupled with humanitarian access denials, either directly isolates or indirectly prevents households from migrating to safer areas in search of food and income for a sustained period of time. An immediate and coordinated scale-up of multi-sectoral assistance is urgently required to mitigate further loss of life.
• In Ethiopia, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected until September in northern conflict-and drought-affected areas where food and income access remain constrained. Until the start of the meher harvest in September, there is a risk of more severe outcomes. With the expected increased access to food and income with the meher harvest, improvement to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely except for in Afar, where Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will likely persist in some areas through January 2025. In southern and southeastern pastoral areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through January 2025 due to the enduring impact of the 2020-2023 drought amid concerns of the forecasted below-average October to December rainfall.
• In Somalia, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist until January 2024 in riverine areas of Gedo and Middle Shabelle, IDP settlements, and some of the agropastoral and pastoral areas worst affected by the lingering impacts of the 2020-2023 drought. However, many pastoral areas are benefiting from improved livestock production after favorable gu and deyr 2024 rainfalls, supporting Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in most pastoral areas through January 2025. Below-average national gu 2024 harvests are expected to constrain food availability and access in agropastoral and riverine areas in the south and north. In Kenya, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in pastoral and marginal agricultural areas through January 2025 due to continued drought recovery following average March-May rainfall. However, in the flood-affected riverine areas of Garissa and Tana River counties, households are expected to face Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January due to crop and asset damage and displacement, with about 33 percent of the displaced population dependent on humanitarian assistance to meet food needs. 
• In South Sudan, humanitarian needs are expected to rise to record high levels at the peak of the July-September lean season, driven by the protracted impacts of conflict and flooding, economic crisis, high food prices, and high returnee burden amid underfunded and disrupted humanitarian assistance. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will expand to 41 counties, while Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes are expected in the northern counties bordering Sudan, in the Sudd wetlands and along river basins, and in hard-to-reach areas of Pibor and Jonglei. With severe flooding expected to be worse than 2020 and 2022, combined with anticipated violence in advance of the planned elections in December, FEWS NET assesses a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) from June 2024 to January 2025 in the most flood- and conflict-prone areas of Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile if households are isolated from accessing typical food and income sources and humanitarian assistance is hindered for a prolonged period of time – particularly areas with high numbers of returnees and displaced persons living in overcrowded conditions, lacking assets and access to traditional livelihoods, and unfamiliar with gathering and consumption of wild foods.
• In Uganda, the below-average harvest after a poor first-season rainfall drives Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in the greater north region. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in Karamoja, with some households facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes due to inadequate access to food and income after successive years of below-average harvests. Similarly, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in most refugee settlements amid new displacements. In Burundi, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in the north and west area throughout the projection period and extend to the east during the October 2024 to January lean period. Food consumption gaps are expected to increase among flood-affected IDPs and recent returnees amid the anticipated scale-down of food assistance and above-average prices.

Burundi

Key messages

• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are anticipated in Imbo Plains and the Northern Lowlands during the current post-harvest period. In addition to macroeconomic challenges, the flooding and overflow of Tanganyika Lake have resulted in below-average crops production and income sources in Imbo Plains. Limited access to cross-border opportunities in the north have further reduced income access and purchasing capacity of poor households. However, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist in the rest of the country, supported by near-average Season B agricultural production and average availability of income sources. 
• As highlighted in the June 2024 FSO, critical macroeconomic indicators have caused instability in the BIF and worsened official exchange rates, which are now up to half of the parallel market rate, reducing import capacity. The low foreign currency reserve forces traders to increasingly rely on the parallel market for imports, resulting in higher prices for imported goods, including food and basic non-food items. One significant consequence of the decreased import capacity is a fuel shortage across the country, leading to increased transport costs and limiting the movement of food at the national level. 
• In June 2024, national-level food prices remained above five-year averages but followed a seasonal decrease in the post-harvest period and were stable compared to the previous year, supported by near-average food stocks from the 2024 Season B. Except for potatoes, which increased by about 10 percent compared to last year, the prices of other staple commodities fluctuated 10 percent above and below last year’s prices, but were 20 to 50 percent above the five-year averages. The area planted with Irish potatoes has decreased due to the limited availability of planting materials for 2024 Season A and B. 
• According to the WFP’s June brief, approximately 57,000 refugees and asylum seekers received about 70 percent of their typical monthly food ration in June due to funding shortages; only 15 percent of the 2024 humanitarian needs are funded. This shortage of humanitarian assistance is expected to result in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in these households. Additionally, humanitarian food assistance covering a three-month ration has been provided to 1,500 returnees, addressing food and non-food needs. A UNHCR report from April estimates that around two years are required for returnees to re-establish their normal food and income sources. The returnees are primarily located in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands, Eastern Dry Plateau, and Buragane livelihood zones. 

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the Burundi Food Security Outlook from June 2024 to January 2025.

Ethiopia

Key messages

• Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected from June to September in northern conflict- and drought-affected areas. The aftermath of the 2020-2022 conflict in Tigray, northern Amhara, and northwest Afar – as well as the ongoing conflict in Amhara – continues to constrain sources of food and income, leaving poor households heavily reliant on humanitarian food assistance and social support. There is a risk of more extreme outcomes until the meher harvest becomes available in September/October.
• While relative improvement to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely in most of the conflict-affected north from October to January, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will likely persist in Afar. Staple food prices are expected to decline with the meher harvest, and average cash income from agricultural labor should improve household purchasing power across the country. However, poor households in conflict-affected Zone 2 and Zone 4 of Afar, along with several woredas in Zone 1, poor households are still expected to engage in severe livelihood coping strategies amid poor purchasing power. 
• In southern and southeastern pastoral areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected from June to January. Pastoralists’ access to food and income from livestock remains low due to the lingering impact of 2020-2023 drought, including among the large internally displaced population. Forecast models show an increasing likelihood of a below-average October to December deyr/hageyarainy season. Households in these areas have only had three favorable seasons to start recovery of their assets from the prior drought; however, heavy rainfall in 2023 and early 2024 drove livestock and crop losses and slowed recovery in many areas. Poor and displaced households still have very few livestock. If rainfall deficits in late 2024 are severe, this may lead to rapid deterioration in acute food insecurity during the subsequent early 2025 dry season. 
• The gradual recovery of livelihoods and markets from the 2020-2022 conflict in the north and 2020-2023 drought in the south is reducing the severity of acute food insecurity in much of Ethiopia, aided by sustained humanitarian assistance. However, food assistance needs remain high as these shocks significantly eroded poor households’ coping capacity, and persistently poor economic conditions prevent broader improvement. Additionally, ongoing conflict in Amhara has driven acute food insecurity in a more densely populated area, contributing to high overall needs in the country.

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the Ethiopia Food Security Outlook from June 2024 to January 2025.

Kenya

Key messages

• Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through January in the riverine areas of Garissa and Tana River counties after the banks of the River Tana burst following above-average March to May long rains upstream. Resultant flooding affected and displaced about 19,900 and 8,025 households respectively and destroyed cropland and assets impacting household food security with about 33 percent of that population dependent on humanitarian assistance to meet food needs. 
• Widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across pastoral and marginal agricultural areas through January due to continued drought recovery driven by above-average livestock sale values, average milk production, and expected near-average long rains harvests. However, these households still engage in negative coping strategies to afford essential non-food expenditures. 
• The areas of highest concern are the IDP (internally displaced persons) settlements in flood-affected areas, particularly in the riverine zones of Garissa and Tana River counties. In June, these riverine zones will return to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as humanitarian assistance decreases and below average short cycle crop harvests become available in July. Pockets of households in Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, Makueni, Kitui and Kilifi counties will experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes towards the end of the scenario period. 
• FEWS NET estimates that 2.0 - 2.7 million people will require humanitarian assistance between June and January, particularly in the flood-affected urban and rural areas in the near to short-term and in the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas over the scenario period. Needs are high currently due to flooding impacts and are expected to be high In January during the brief lean season which will be worse than normal due to forecasted atypical dry conditions (including a below-average October to December short rains season) from the shift in ENSO state to La Niña. 

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the Kenya Food Security Outlook from June 2024 to January 2025.

Somalia

Key messages

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are assessed in Somalia from June to September in the areas worst affected by flooding, conflict, and the 2020-2023 drought. Many pastoralists and some agropastoralists are benefiting from recent livestock births, milk availability, and livestock productivity, while in agropastoral and riverine areas, the second consecutive below-average harvest due to flooding is limiting typical seasonal improvement in access to food and income. An estimated 3.8 million people remain displaced, many of whom face moderate to large food consumption gaps and receive inadequate food assistance. 
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will likely persist in some areas from October to January. Favorable flood-recession harvests will become available and livestock births — supported by good conception rates in early 2024 — are expected; however, La Niña conditions will likely bring rainfall deficits in late 2024 and below-average deyr 2024/2025 harvests. The benefits of the preceding above-average rains on livestock production will likely partially and temporarily mitigate negative impacts on pastoralists’ food security. 
• The areas of highest concern include IDP settlements, southern riverine areas of Gedo and Middle Shabelle regions, central and coastal pastoral areas, as well as some southern and northern agropastoral areas. An estimated 3.5-4 million people still need food assistance, and needs are anticipated to peak from June to August, largely driven by flood-induced crop losses during the 2024 gu season. 
• Despite the high food assistance needs, a scale-down of assistance is anticipated. As of June, only roughly 40 percent of the funding requirements for Somalia’s 2024 food security and livelihoods response have been met. Budget constraints suggest assistance levels will further scale down through late 2024. As conflict, flood, and drought-displaced households lack the resources to meet their needs, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are anticipated in several IDP settlements through January. 

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the Somalia Food Security Outlook from June 2024 to January 2025.

South Sudan

Key messages

• South Sudan remains in the topmost food insecure countries globally, with needs expected to rise to record high levels and some areas facing a risk of Famine during the upcoming rainy season. FEWS NET projects that 8-9 million people, or 65-70 percent of the population, will require food aid at the peak of the lean season (July-September). Years of conflict and flooding have decimated livelihoods and eroded coping capacity, and multiple shocks are converging as the lean season approaches, including an ongoing economic crisis, high returnee burden, anticipated violence in advance of planned elections in December, and severe flooding projected to be worse than the 2020 and 2022 floods in extent and livelihoods impact. 
• Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to expand to 41 counties in June to September with some households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Areas of highest concern with populations likely in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) include the northern counties bordering Sudan, areas within the Sudd wetlands and along river basins, and hard-to-reach areas of Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA) and Jonglei. Many of these areas are simultaneously hosting large shares of the returnee population while facing anticipated increasing sporadic conflict and rising criminality, as well as severe flooding which will likely result in displacement, crop and livestock losses, disruptions to trade and aid deliveries, and elevated disease outbreaks contributing to worsening acute malnutrition. 
• FEWS NET assesses a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in South Sudan from June onward, particularly in north-central Unity and other low-lying and flood prone counties in the Sudd wetland area and river basins. If severe flooding combined with conflict dynamics isolates households from accessing typical food and income sources or assistance deliveries for a prolonged period of time, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would occur during the June 2024 to January 2025 projection period. A scale up of funding for humanitarian assistance alongside a multisectoral response will therefore be critical to saving lives and livelihoods. 

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the South Sudan Food Security Outlook from June 2024 to January 2025.

Sudan 

Key messages

• South Sudan remains in the topmost food insecure countries globally, with needs expected to rise to record high levels and some areas facing a risk of Famine during the upcoming rainy season. FEWS NET projects that 8-9 million people, or 65-70 percent of the population, will require food aid at the peak of the lean season (July-September). Years of conflict and flooding have decimated livelihoods and eroded coping capacity, and multiple shocks are converging as the lean season approaches, including an ongoing economic crisis, high returnee burden, anticipated violence in advance of planned elections in December, and severe flooding projected to be worse than the 2020 and 2022 floods in extent and livelihoods impact.
• Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to expand to 41 counties in June to September with some households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Areas of highest concern with populations likely in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) include the northern counties bordering Sudan, areas within the Sudd wetlands and along river basins, and hard-to-reach areas of Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA) and Jonglei. Many of these areas are simultaneously hosting large shares of the returnee population while facing anticipated increasing sporadic conflict and rising criminality, as well as severe flooding which will likely result in displacement, crop and livestock losses, disruptions to trade and aid deliveries, and elevated disease outbreaks contributing to worsening acute malnutrition.
• FEWS NET assesses a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in South Sudan from June onward, particularly in north-central Unity and other low-lying and flood prone counties in the Sudd wetland area and river basins. If severe flooding combined with conflict dynamics isolates households from accessing typical food and income sources or assistance deliveries for a prolonged period of time, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would occur during the June 2024 to January 2025 projection period. A scale up of funding for humanitarian assistance alongside a multisectoral response will therefore be critical to saving lives and livelihoods.

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the Sudan Food Security Outlook from June 2024 to January 2025.

Uganda

Key messages

• FEWS NET estimates 1.5 to 2.0 million people in Uganda will likely need humanitarian food assistance during the entire projection period, primarily those in refugee settlements and Karamoja. Needs are expected to remain slightly elevated during the projection period as localized mixed crop production outcomes and below-average national cereal and legume production drive consumption deficits. 
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in most refugee settlements through January. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are now likely in some southwest settlements where relatively better land access for own-production and market integration are supporting food access, though food assistance is preventing worse outcomes. Conflict in Sudan, South Sudan, and the DRC has driven over 69,605 new arrivals in Uganda refugee settlements since January; nearly 40 percent are from Sudan. Humanitarian resources are increasingly strained, and most refugees are unable to meet their minimum food needs. 
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely prevail in drought-affected areas of Karamoja, with some households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) ahead of the August harvest and through early 2025. The early cessation of rains is expected to result in another consecutive year of below-average annual harvests. The seasonal improvement in food availability from July to September with the harvest will partially mitigate food consumption gaps and support improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in several areas. However, food stocks are anticipated to quickly deplete, resulting in deterioration to widespread area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by December/January. 
• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in the greater north in the areas worst affected by first season rainfall deficits and crop losses through September. The below-average harvests are limiting normal seasonal income access from crop sales, and the early depletion of household food stocks are likely to result in early reliance on markets for food by August. However, food access will increase with the second season labor opportunities and harvests by late 2024. 

For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the Uganda Food Security Outlook from June 2024 to January 2025.