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The July-September outlook period will be characterized by accentuated food insecurity for the majority of 16 million people currently in the Emergency (IPC Phase 4), Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of food insecurity in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti. A combination of poor and delayed March-June rains, impacts of conflict, declining macroeconomic trends, and heightened food prices is expected to sustain heightened food insecurity through September.
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However, the October-December period is anticipated to provide substantial relief to a significant proportion of food insecure populations in many parts of the region. Expected improvements are attributed to increased food supply from harvests, reduced food prices, enhanced productivity and prices of livestock, increased labor opportunities for households, and reduced inflationary pressures.
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Nevertheless, food security will need to be monitored closely even beyond the outlook period because improvements are unlikely to be sustained. Causal factors including impacts of conflict, poor rains in the eastern sector, reduced acreage and poor macroeconomic fundamentals will not be mitigated by one or two average seasons.
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The largest proportions of food insecure populations are located in countries where conflict is on-going, including Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia. In most of Sudan, South Sudan and parts of Somalia, harvests may not compensate for the impacts of conflict, which include restrained access to land, markets and trade, productive inputs, humanitarian assistance and labor opportunities. Food insecurity is anticipated to remain elevated in conflict-affected epicenters, even as favorable El Niño rains are expected from October onward.
Regional Overview
The March-May/June rains are important in many parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. The performance of the 2012 March-May/June rains was mixed, with heavy rains and localized flooding in the western parts of these countries. However, the rains were poor and started late in critical areas including the northern Guban and Coastal Deeh pastoral areas and the agropastoral areas of southern Somalia; the Belg-dependent northeastern highlands and SNNPR cropping areas, and the northern pastoral areas of the Somali and Afar regions. Poor seasonal rains were also experienced in the northeastern and eastern pastoral areas of Kenya and in the southeastern and Coastal marginal agricultural areas. The impacts of the poor rains are evident in poor harvests and depleted grazing resources.
The June-September rains are the principal rains in the northern parts of the sector including western and central Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, northern Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea. While the rains have been normal in most areas, early season deficits occurred in western Ethiopia and northeastern and eastern Sudan as demonstrated by below average vegetation. The ECMWF forecast suggests that there will be near-normal rains during the June-September period, except in northern and northeastern Ethiopia. However, excessive rains in eastern Sudan including Kassala and Gedaref States have led to severe flooding, displacing households and destroying livelihoods.
Food production followed closely the outcome of seasonal rains. In general, poor production was evident in the Belg cropping areas of Ethiopia, namely in the SNNPR, East and West Harrarghe and northeastern highlands. Similarly poor production prospects are anticipated for the Kiremt growing areas in the eastern marginal areas as well as in the agropastoral areas in the northern Somali and Afar Regions due to delayed planting and the likelihood of an early cessation. However, favorable crop output is expected in the western highlands of Ethiopia. Below average Gu production is likely in the agropastoral areas of southern and central Somalia principally due to poor rains, reduced acreage and pest damage in the Juba Valley, central agropastoral and Middle Shabelle and in the agropastoral sorghum belt. However, crop production is near average in the Southern Juba Valley riverine, the high potential lower and middle Shabelle and the high potential Bay sorghum belt. Long rains production is anticipated to be significantly below normal in the drought-prone southeastern and Coastal marginal agricultural areas of Kenya. Delayed and poor rains are key factors causing significant crop losses in the cropping lowlands. However, long rains crop output in key growing areas is likely to be near average in spite of crop damage in the South Rift, by the Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND). While national maize output is anticipated to be near normal substantial food deficits will manifest in the southeastern and Coastal areas which do not expect a main harvest until March 2013.
The most likely scenario for the July-December outlook period is based on the following assumptions:
- Cumulative rainfall deficits from the March-May/June season will result in reduced crop output and livestock productivity losses in critical areas in eastern parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Djibouti, and parts of Rwanda.
- The principal July-September rains in Sudan, South Sudan, most of Ethiopia, and Djibouti will be normal to above-normal according to the Greater Horn of Africa Climate forecast.
- Expected higher than normal October-December rains, arising from the anticipated El Niño event, is likely to result in enhanced crop and livestock production in key areas in central and eastern Somalia, eastern Kenya, western Ethiopia, most of Uganda, and Djibouti. However, enhanced rains could cause flooding and displacements and also motivate an upsurge in water and vector-borne diseases.
- Area put to crops will be constrained in Sudan and South Sudan due to on-going conflict that has resulted in constrained access to farms and productive inputs. Area planted will also be reduced in Ethiopia due to the delay in the Belg harvest that has impeded timely land preparation for the Meher crop in bi-modal areas.
- Peace talks are ongoing between Sudan and South Sudan, and agreements on improved access by humanitarian organizations and trading partners have been reached. Furthermore, Sudan and South Sudan have recently reached an agreement on oil transit fees, which is expected to allow for the resumption of oil production and export in South Sudan. However, impacts of improved relations are unlikely to translate into a marked improvement in food security during the outlook period.
- Macroeconomic shocks in both Sudan and South Sudan for the past year will continue to erode household purchasing capacities, especially during July-September. Heightened inflation due to reduced oil revenues (by up to 70 percent for Sudan), currency devaluation, and depreciation of the local currency are likely to persist through most of the outlook period.
- Food insecurity for refugee populations in Dadaab and Kakuma in Kenya, Dollo Ado in Ethiopia, and Yida, Jamman, Doro, and Yusuf Batil camps in South Sudan will remain elevated because of inadequate water and sanitation and, in some instances, reduced access by humanitarian organizations.
- Heightened food prices will continue to impact purchasing power among poor households and displaced populations in Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya, during the April-September period because of a combination of poor production, delayed harvests, constrained trade and reduced crop hectarage.
- Crop harvests will cause a substantial increase in household food supply and a significant decline in food prices in most parts of the region, from October-December, as harvests enter the market in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti. However, both the magnitude and period of the decline will be moderated by below average harvests in most areas.
- Livestock productivity is expected to improve significantly following fairly good rains in pastoral areas of Sudan, South Sudan, northern Somalia, Southeastern Ethiopia, and northwestern Kenya.
- The expected increase in livestock prices due to improved conditions, Ramadan ceremonies and anticipated Hajj exports to the Middle East will be moderated by the heightened prices of non-food commodities (due to the increase in fuel prices) and the modest decline in food prices. Beneficial impacts of increased livestock prices will also be dampened by heightened food and non-food prices in the pastoral areas of in most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and Djibouti.
Nearly 16 million people in the Eastern Africa region in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda are at Emergency (IPC Phase 4), Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of food insecurity. The large number of food insecure populations has persisted through most of 2012, with limited respite from multiple rainy seasons, underlining the fragility of livelihoods that are recovering slowly from the 2011 food security crisis. Although rainfall is usually the key driver of food insecurity in the region, a confluence of factors has sustained heightened food insecurity. Conflict, macroeconomic shocks, human and livestock disease, access to markets, national food stocks, and humanitarian assistance, are expected to keep food insecurity in many parts of the region at elevated levels.
Sudan
Food insecurity for an estimated 4.6 million people in Sudan could worsen during the July to September period due to impacts of the year-long conflict, declining macroeconomic indicators, unfavorable exchange rates, sharply rising food prices (which are up to 150 percent higher than average) and heightened fuel prices. The areas of most concern are poor households and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile States, facing Stressed to Emergency levels of food insecurity. About one million people in Red Sea, North Kordofan, White Nile and Kassala states also face Stressed levels of food insecurity. Conflict in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile States has caused significant displacement and erosion of livelihoods, limited access to trade, labor opportunities, humanitarian interventions, and limited ability to engage in farming.
An estimated 350,000 people in South Kordofan State are displaced, including about 150,000-200,000 people in areas controlled by the Sudan’s People Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N). Food insecurity for IDPs in SPLM-N-controlled areas is anticipated to be at Emergency levels during July-September, improving to Crisis levels during October-December, coinciding with crop harvests. Food security for host populations in SPLM-N controlled areas is expected to worsen to Crisis levels during July to September, improving to Stressed levels during October-December. In Government of Sudan (GoS)-controlled areas, where humanitarian access is less constrained, food insecurity is anticipated to be at Stressed and Crisis levels from July to September, improving to Stressed levels from October to December for about 100,000–150,000 people.
The GoS has control of most parts of Blue Nile State, where 50,000 – 100,000 people in SPLM-N controlled areas face Crisis levels, and about 100,000 people in GoS-controlled areas face Crisis levels, which will continue through September. Toward the latter half of the outlook period, food security outcomes are expected to improve to Stressed levels in SPLM-N-controlled areas as food becomes more readily available. Similar improvements in GoS-controlled areas will advance or maintain food security to Stressed levels through most of the outlook period. However, livelihood options will be limited and IDPs will continue to rely on food assistance and support from the host community to bridge consumption gaps.
An estimated three million people (1.8 million IDPs and 1.2 million people affected by drought) in Darfur will face Stressed and Crisis levels of food insecurity through September. In many parts of North Darfur, Crisis levels are driven by poor rains in 2011, which resulted in poor production and degraded pasture, coupled with exceptionally high food and non-food prices. Conflict has caused substantial destabilization of livelihoods and disrupted commodity flows from central Sudan to Darfur and within Darfur through critical supply routes. In addition, seasonal food aid distribution to drought-affected populations is anticipated to be delayed and insufficient, leading to food consumption deficits through the outlook period. Improvements to Stressed levels of food insecurity are expected from October through December after the key harvest begins and labor opportunities increase.
An estimated 2.5 to 3.0 million people are anticipated to be in the Stressed and Crisis levels of food insecurity through the July to December outlook period in South Sudan. The impacts of conflict with neighboring Sudan are the principal driver of food insecurity coupled with rapidly deteriorating macroeconomic indicators: rising inflation, unfavorable exchange rates, limited trade with Sudan, sharply rising food and non-food prices and limited revenues from oil production. The main areas of concern include Upper Nile, Warrap, Northern Bahr El Gazal, the northern parts of Unity and parts of Jonglei State.
Approximately 110,000 people displaced from Abyei are in Twic County (Warrap State) are likely to remain in the Crisis Phase through the outlook period. Crisis levels of food insecurity in the border areas will also persist through most of the outlook period in northern parts of Warrap, Unity Northern Bar el Ghazal, Abyei and southern Jonglei. Increased supply of harvested food in other parts of the country will improve food security to the Stressed level through the October-December period. However, good June-September rains will not assure favorable production in all areas because conflict has severely impeded food production as farms are inaccessible, households are displaced and availability of productive inputs is also constrained.
Worrisome levels of child malnutrition are also being reported in Yida refugee camp in Pariang County of Unity State, housing about 60,000 people, up from 27,500 in April. A FEWS NET nutrition and food security survey conducted in early July 2012 has revealed that global acute malnutrition prevalence rates are 21.8 percent and severe acute malnutrition prevalence rates are 6.1 percent (WHO). The GAM prevalence is higher than the WHO Emergency threshold of 15 percent. The survey also shows that child mortality rates are increasing over the 90 days preceding the survey. Nearly 300 people continue to arrive daily, while health and other indicators including water availability, hygiene conditions, measles coverage, and Vitamin A supplementation are well below acceptable thresholds. Overwhelming dependence on relief food and limited coverage for nutrition interventions all point to a precarious food security situation in Yida Camp, through the outlook period, in the absence of scalable cross-sectoral interventions.
While Somalia is slowly recovering from the devastating impacts of the 2011 famine, mixed seasonal rainfall performance, coupled with the impacts of continuing conflict means that some areas of heightened food insecurity will remain throughout the outlook period. An estimated 2.51 million people are currently classified in Emergency, Crisis, or Stressed levels food insecurity. The key areas of concern include the agropastoral and cropping areas in Hiran, Lower Juba, Gedo, Bay, Lower Shabelle, and Bakool regions and the Coastal Deeh and northwestern Guban pastoral areas.
Households in the agropastoral livelihood zones in Lower Juba, Gedo, Bay, Lower Shabelle, and Bakool regions are likely to remain in the Crisis phase through the outlook period. Poor Gu rains coupled with reduced area put to crop is anticipated to result in a below average harvest. A below average harvest is expected in September due to replanting, pest infestations, and moisture stress. In some areas, a larger than average off-season harvest will occur later in the year, but it will not compensate for losses accruing from the main season’s performance. Food prices are rising and poor households have substantial consumption gaps even as relief food disbursements are being scaled down in some areas while previous harvests are exhausted. Many of these households are recovering from the impacts of last year’s famine and livelihoods are not self-supporting. Increasingly, casual labor jobs, production of charcoal, and dependence on humanitarian assistance have become fragile livelihood strategies, usually affected adversely by their lack of stability due to conflict. Some populations in Gedo, Lower and Middle Juba, Hiran Bay and Bakool were also displaced by civil conflict and were unable to fully engage in productive activities. However, more favorable production is anticipated in the agropastoral areas of the northwest, Middle Juba and in the Middle Shabelle and many of these households are likely to be at Stressed levels of food insecurity through the outlook period.
The northwestern Guban and Coastal Deeh pastoral areas have had a succession of poor seasons, and the current Hagaa dry spell is accentuating the impacts of already poor livestock, pasture, browse, and water conditions. Some limited livestock mortalities have been reported and lactating animals are unlikely to withstand the dry conditions which are likely to persist through December. Terms of trade for pastoral households are poor as livestock body conditions continue to deteriorate while household purchasing capacities and coping strategies have been eroded by the succession of poor seasons. Migration options are limited since neighboring pastoral livelihoods are experiencing similarly poor environmental conditions. Pastoral households are faced with severe consumption and livelihood protection gaps that will continue beyond the outlook period. Food security is likely to remain in the Crisis Phase through the outlook period in the Northwestern Guban and Coastal Deeh pastoral areas. However, favorable rains in other northern and central pastoral areas have resulted in some recovery of the productivity of herds and Stressed levels of food insecurity will remain, since pastoral households are unlikely to be fully self-supporting during the outlook period.
An estimated 3.2 million people in Ethiopia are classified in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) of food insecurity. Areas of most concern include the northern areas of the Somali region and parts of pastoral areas in Afar Region, the Belg-producing highlands in eastern Amhara, and bi-modal parts of the eastern Oromia and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR), which are all currently in Crisis levels of food insecurity. Poor performance of the Belg rains is expected to sustain Crisis levels of food insecurity in the Belg-dependent northeastern highland areas through the outlook period. The Belg cereal harvest accounts for 70 to 100 percent of annual production in the Belg-dependant areas in eastern Amhara and southern woredas of SNNPR. A delayed Belg harvest and subsequent late Meher planting has accentuated the upward pressure on cereal and other food prices. Low wage rates and poor productivity of livestock in these areas is causing considerable stress on limited household purchasing capacities among poor households. Subsequently, households in these areas are anticipated to remain in the Crisis phase throughout the scenario period. However, Meher harvests are expected to improve household food supply and food security for households in Meher-dominant areas and food security is anticipated to improve to the Stressed Phase in October.
Poor households in the major root crop-dependent zones of the SNNPR are also affected by a near total failure of the root crop harvest in May. In these areas, the Belg harvest has been delayed, limited Meher harvests are expected, while the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) food transfers will not occur during the outlook period. Already admissions to stabilization and Outpatient Therapeutic programs are increasing. Households in these areas are anticipated to remain in the Crisis phase throughout the scenario period.
Poor rains in the pastoral areas of northern Somalia region and Afar have resulted in limited livestock productivity and access to milk for poor households, while cereal prices are well above average. No harvests are expected in these areas through December and livestock conditions are likely to further deteriorate. Crisis levels of food insecurity are likely to persist through the outlook period. However, pastoral areas in the southern zones of the Somali Region and the lowlands of Oromia and SNNPR have reported substantial improvements in livestock productivity including improved milk production, birth rates, and heightened livestock prices.
Nearly 2.4 million people in Kenya are faced with Stressed and Crisis-level food insecurity, primarily in the southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas and the eastern and northeastern pastoral areas, where the April-June 2012 long rains were exceptionally poor. Poor long rains in the southeastern marginal agricultural areas of Tharaka, Mbeere, Kitui, Mwingi, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Kwale, and Malindi Districts, followed similarly poor October-December rains, which are the most important rains in the cropping lowlands. Households that are barely recovering from the impacts of the extended food security crisis in late 2011 are overwhelmingly dependent on intermittent relief food and unsustainable coping strategies. Most poor households in the lowlands are accessing only one or two meals each day and have less access to labor opportunities because of limited agricultural production. Many of these households are faced with severe consumption gaps and a significant proportion has already sold their remaining livestock. The households are anticipated to remain in Crisis levels of food insecurity through September but improve to Stressed levels as harvests from key producing areas drive down food prices and labor opportunities for short rains production increase. The maize lethal necrosis disease (MLND), which has devastated the maize crop in the South Rift cropping areas, has caused up to 70 percent crop losses in affected areas in the high potential southwestern cropping areas. Close monitoring of the disease is warranted because a spread into neighboring key growing areas that account for over 70 percent of the national long rains output, during the next long rains season, would widen the structural deficit markedly.
Poor pastoralists in eastern and northeastern Kenya are also facing rapidly declining household food security due to impacts of the poor long rains. Many of them are faced with severe water shortages, limited productivity of livestock, and unfavorable terms of trade, especially in Garissa, Wajir, Tana River, and Ijara Districts, through September. Household food and protection gaps are expected to widen through September but begin to decline through October-December, which coincides with the short rains season, leading to an improvement in household food security to Stressed levels.
Crisis levels of food insecurity are expected to persist for northwestern and southeastern pastoral livelihood groups in Djibouti through September. The pastoral groups have experienced poor rains for about two years and the October-March Heys/Dadaa Coastal rains were exceptionally poor. Consequently, poor livestock production is compounded by exceptionally high food and non-food prices and the Karan/Karma rains have only just started. The pastoral livelihoods are fully dependent on imported food, primarily from Ethiopia, where prices are also well above average levels. Poor pastoral households are overwhelmingly dependent on humanitarian assistance, after losing close to 30 percent of livestock, while the sale of firewood, a key livelihood strategy, is restricted. Migration to urban centers is not expected to offer significant relief to poor households because of limited income opportunities due to the influx of pastoralists that have lost livestock over the past few years. Although on-going rains are expected to improve livestock productivity and enhance availability of water, improved household food security will only be experienced toward the end of the year when food prices from cross-border imports decline and livestock productivity and prices increase. It is anticipated that food security for pastoral households in the northwest and southeast will improve to Stressed levels from October through December. However, Crisis levels of food insecurity are likely to persist for pastoral households in Al Sabieh, along the border with Somalia, where growing malnutrition has been reported.
While there is minimal food insecurity for poor households in the semi-arid agropastoral, Eastern Congo-Nile highland subsistence farming and western Congo-Nile crest tea livelihood zones of Rwanda currently, following just-concluded harvests, food insecurity is likely to deteriorate to the Stressed level of food insecurity from October-December. Depleted household food stocks among poor households, reduced wage rates and asset stripping during the October-November lean season, in the Eastern Congo-Nile highland subsistence farming and western Congo-Nile crest tea zone is expected to precipitate deterioration in food security to the Stressed level. Similarly, food security for poor households in the semi-arid agro-pastoral livelihood zone is set to decline to the Stressed level from September to December after a poor Season B production, following unfavorable seasonal rains. Maize prices remain high and Season B production is not anticipated to last beyond September. Most poor households are dependent on limited casual labor activities while labor interventions instituted by the government target 2,000 laborers, leaving thousands under considerable food stress and limited opportunities to access food.
Minimal acute food insecurity is anticipated in Uganda through the outlook period because of generally favorable March to May rains which resulted in favorable crop output and improved livestock productivity. Although the Karamoja Region is coming out of the lean season and household food stocks are low, harvests are on-going in key cropping areas and national food prices are declining. Poor households in Karamoja will also be able to engage in casual labor and charcoal production as a means of financing food needs through November. Livestock productivity, milk output and terms of trade are anticipated to improve toward the end of the scenario period, sustaining minimal levels of food insecurity during the entire outlook period.
Less likely events over the next six months that could change the above scenarios
- The June-September and October-December rains are poor in critical areas in Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, and Kenya, contrary to the Greater Horn of Africa Climate outlook forecast.
- Heavy El Niño rains during October-December cause severe flooding and an epidemic in water and vector borne human and livestock diseases, reducing productivities and widening consumption gaps for poor households in the eastern sector of the region.
- Declining macroeconomic trends including exchange rate depreciation, heightened inflation rates and prohibitively high food and non-food prices are reversed in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya.
- The volatile security and political situation in Somalia is stabilized allowing access to vulnerable populations by humanitarian agencies, while trade and movement of populations within and across the borders are unrestricted.
- Humanitarian assistance is sufficient to meet food and non-food gaps which are identified among the estimated 16 million food insecure population in the Eastern Africa Region.
Source : FEWS NET
To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.