East Africa Assumptions for Quarterly Food Security Analysis, January 2014

FEWS NET’s Food Security Outlook reports for January to June 2014 are based on the following regional assumptions:

Seasonal Performance

• The March to May 2014 Gu/long rains in the eastern Horn of Africa in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya are expected to be near normal to below normal in terms of total rainfall.
• The long rains in western Kenya/the first season rains in bimodal areas in Uganda/the Season B rains in Rwanda and Burundi, and the Belg rains in Ethiopia from February/March/April to May/June/July are expected to start at seasonally normal times and be near normal in terms of total rainfall.
• The October to March Xays/Dadaa rains over coastal areas of Djibouti and northwestern Somalia are expected to continue to be near normal to above normal in terms of total rainfall due to warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Aden.
• Abnormally high land surface temperatures, up to two degrees above normal, are likely between January and March in eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, western Uganda, and central and northern Tanzania (Figure 1).
  • Many of these areas had drier than normal October to December rainy seasons, especially in southeastern Kenya and southern Somalia.

Regional Trade and Price Dynamics

Maize trade between Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda

• Maize imports into Kenya are likely to continue between January and June, primarily from Tanzania. There is also likely to be some maize export from Uganda to both Kenya and Tanzania. In general, maize prices in Kenya and northern Tanzania are likely to only have a slight decline in January and February with the start of the harvest, and after that, tight supplies are likely to drive increasing prices through at least June. The tighter than usual supplies are expected due to:
  • The August to January long rains harvest in the northern Rift Valley’s grain basket and other high potential areas in Kenya is also expected to be below average.
  • Demand in Kenya is likely to be higher than average due to the high likelihood of a well below average short rains harvest in February/March in southeastern and coastal marginal cropping areas in Kenya.
  • The January to February Vuli harvest of maize in northern Tanzania is expected to be well below average.
  • Domestic and regional demand for maize in Uganda maize remains higher than usual, partially the result of increasing exports to South Sudan.
  • Both Malawi and Zambia are likely to institute measures to further restrict exports between January and June, decreasing the volume of maize imports into Tanzania but not eliminating them. However, this volume of this maize trade is fairly limited in its impacts on Tanzania’s markets.

Imports into South Sudan

• South Sudan will continue to import white sorghum from January to at least June, but at a somewhat lower volume than the same time last year and at higher prices than last year. The reduced volume and higher prices are expected to be the result of:

• A well below average sorghum harvest in November and December 2013 in Sudan meant that in many markets in eastern Sudan such as Gadarif, prices did not decline in the lead up to the harvest or in the immediate post-harvest period as would happen in a more typical year. Sorghum prices are likely to continue to rise in Sudan.
• Sudan continues to officially ban exports of white sorghum to South Sudan and this is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. The ban will continue to cause high and rising transaction costs for traders who choose to circumvent it.
• The withdrawal of fuel subsidies in Sudan has also increased transportation costs.
• Continued high costs and high risks associated with conflict in some areas will contribute to higher prices.
• Increased upward pressure on white sorghum prices due to high fuel prices in Sudan will contribute to higher prices.
• High demand for white sorghum in northern South Sudan both as a staple food and for its brewing qualities will continue.
• Depreciation of the Sudanese Pound (SDP) against the U.S. dollar (USD) will likely continue.

• South Sudanese traders from January until June will increasingly import red sorghum, maize, and maize flour, primarily from Uganda, as a substitute for Sudanese white sorghum. Imports of these goods from Uganda will be at a higher volume than last year.
  • Imported goods from Uganda are expected to reach markets as far north in South Sudan as Aweil in Northern Bahr El Ghazal State, Wau in Western Bahr El Ghazal State, and Kwajok in Warrap State, based on current and expected prices (Figure 2).
  • This trade is expected to continue despite conflict within South Sudan.

Conflict and Refugees

• Conflict is likely to continue within South Sudan from January until at least June. This assumption is supported by recent events, including:
  • The fighting that broke out within South Sudan on December 15 is ongoing.
  • Peace talks between the Government of South Sudan and rebel groups have not led to an agreement thus far.

• With conflict continuing, refugee arrivals from South Sudan are likely to be much higher than last year from January until at least June.
  • According to United Nations’ (UN) Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), about 42,800 people have moved out of South Sudan to neighboring countries from December 15 to January 11. About three-quarters of them fled to Uganda though there have also been substantial numbers of new refugee arrivals in Ethiopia and Kenya (Figure 3). It is anticipated the bulk of the refugees would continue to go to Uganda, followed by Ethiopia and Kenya, respectively.  
  • While the numbers are smaller than to other countries, there are also likely to be a higher number of arrivals in Sudan and Central African Republic, despite ongoing conflict in many of the border areas where refugees are likely to enter these countries.