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Key messages
Key Message Update July 2026 - January 2027 El Niño-driven rainfall delays and deficits raise concerns for the meher harvest Download report
  • Millions of households countrywide are struggling to meet their food needs as the June to August lean season peaks amid high market dependence, constrained income, and high food prices. Of particular concern are internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees, and crop-dependent households that have been atypically market dependent since January. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are widespread as limited food and income access drives food consumption deficits. Rainfall in July supported planting, and widespread crop failure is not currently the most likely scenario; the meher harvest is expected to support Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes beginning in October across many northern, central, and southern areas, although below-average production will likely limit the scale and duration of improvement. FEWS NET will continue to monitor rainfall performance, planting progress, and crop development over the coming weeks.
  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through January 2027 across most southern, southeastern, and far-northern pastoral areas as poor livestock productivity, reduced herd sizes, and high food prices constrain food and income access. In northern pastoral areas, poor July to September karan/karma rainfall is anticipated to limit seasonal improvements in pasture and water availability and livestock body conditions, increasing the risk for further herd size declines. Pasture availability is already below average, and according to key informants, a failed rainy season will likely result in depleted pasture within two months. In southern and southeastern areas, the forecast above-average October to December deyr/hageya rains are unlikely to drive immediate improvements in livestock productivity and income despite improving pasture and water conditions, as recovery from prior drought years remains slow due to low herd sizes. Additionally, above-average rains increase the risk of flooding and the likelihood of related displacement and livelihood constraints.
  • El Niño continues to suppress rainfall during the critical June/July to September kiremt/karan/karma season, and full agricultural recovery is increasingly unlikely in the worst-affected northern and eastern areas following severe early-season rainfall deficits and delayed onset. Through the first three weeks of July, rainfall deficits delayed onset by up to four weeks in parts of Amhara and by around three weeks in parts of Afar, northern Somali, and eastern Oromia, while a late start and persistent rainfall deficits drove exceptionally poor seasonal rainfall across northern and eastern Tigray. Across much of the country, the June to July period was the driest on record, with rainfall deficits ranging from roughly 40 to 70 percent of typical across northern, eastern, and central Ethiopia. Improved rainfall in late July partially eased dryness, improved soil moisture, and supported increased planting, reducing the likelihood of widespread crop failure, but the rainfall likely arrived too late to fully offset planting delays, crop damage, and the shortened growing period. Below-average and poorly distributed rainfall is forecast through September, with further dry spells likely to constrain soil-moisture recharge and crop development, particularly of eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and Afar, where deficits are deepest and the seasonal rainfall window closes rapidly. 
  • A below-average meher harvest is most likely across northern and eastern cropping areas, with the greatest losses likely in eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and the East and West Hararghe lowlands. In Amhara, the Regional Disaster Risk Management Bureau reported that, as of late July, nearly 80 percent of the planned 5.6 million hectares had been planted, though in eastern Amhara planting is only around 60 percent. Agricultural activities are also significantly delayed in Tigray. In East and West Hararghe, belg-season moisture stress and continued dryness caused long-cycle meher crops, particularly maize, to wilt or dry up, while some short-cycle meher crops failed to germinate or wilted. Damaged crops are increasingly being used as livestock feed. 
  • The poor belg harvests constrained household food stocks and income in several areas of Ethiopia during the lean season. Poor rainfall distribution caused moisture stress during the critical flowering and grain-filling stages, resulting in a below-average belg harvest in several areas. In West Hararghe Zone of Oromia, late-season dry spells and above-average temperatures, compounded by pests, weeds, and crop disease, reduced belg production by an estimated 35 percent below average, with losses exceeding 50 percent in several lowland woredas, according to the Zonal Disaster Risk Management Office. A late rainy season onset followed by a prolonged dry spell also constrained crop development in the belg-producing highlands of Amhara and some areas of Tigray, while moisture stress caused significant yield reductions in areas of Central Ethiopia.
  • Persistently high food prices continue to constrain household purchasing power despite relative month-on-month stability in most markets. According to the Ethiopian Statistics Service (ESS), annual headline inflation rose to nearly 14 percent in June, up from 13.4 percent in May. Staple prices were broadly stable between May and June, with localized increases linked to lean season supply constraints and modest declines in some belg-producing areas following the harvest. However, prices remained far above normal: maize prices in Sodo in South Ethiopia Region were more than 90 percent above the five-year average, while maize prices in Degahabur in Somali Region were 20 percent above last year and 82 percent above the five-year average. 
  • Humanitarian food assistance continued with erratic and low coverage in Amhara in June but was interrupted in Tigray, decreasing support to camp-based IDPs until distributions resumed in July. In Amhara, JEOP and the government of Ethiopia reached more than 177,000 people with food and cash transfers in June. No food distributions were reported in Tigray. Although assistance resumed in July and is expected through August, a potential JEOP pipeline break beginning in September will likely further reduce food assistance delivery. 
More analysis reports View all Ethiopia food security analysis reports
Monthly analysis
Food Security Outlook Ethiopia June 2026 - January 2027
Key Message Update Ethiopia May - September 2026
Food Security Outlook Update Ethiopia April - September 2026
Alerts / special reports
Alert East Africa December 23, 2025
Alert East Africa December 16, 2025
Special Report Global June 23, 2025
Monthly analysis
Food Security Outlook Ethiopia June 2026 - January 2027
Key Message Update Ethiopia May - September 2026
Food Security Outlook Update Ethiopia April - September 2026
Alerts / special reports
Alert East Africa December 23, 2025
Alert East Africa December 16, 2025
Special Report Global June 23, 2025
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Acute Food Insecurity Area-Level Classifications

FEWS NET produces IPC-compatible area-level acute food insecurity classifications monthly for FEWS NET reporting countries. This data is available as spatial files, tabular files, and map images. It is a key output of FEWS NET integrated food security analysis and is reported in our Food Security Outlooks and Outlook Updates (FSO/U) and Key Message Updates (KMU).

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Acutely Food Insecure Population Estimates

These estimates reflect the total population estimated to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity outcomes, including those who are receiving humanitarian food assistance and those who are not. This tabular data is a key output of FEWS NET integrated food security analysis and is reported in our FSOs, global Food Assistance Outlook Briefs (FAOB), and semi-annual global Peak Food Assistance Needs Outlook Briefs.

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This report provides a global outlook on anticipated severe weather events, including maps with current weather information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to one week), and the potential impact on crop and pasture conditions.

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Seasonal Monitor reports

This report provides regional updates on weather events, rainfall patterns, and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, water availability) during a given geography’s rainy season, along with a short-term rainfall forecast.

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Agroclimatology data

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Livelihoods resources

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Ethiopia 2018 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
Livelihood Baselines

Baselines provide quantitative analysis of household livelihood options. It includes a detailed breakdown of food, cash, and expenditure patterns. The Baseline also highlights market patterns, seasonality, and coping strategies. 

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Livelihood Zone maps

Zone Maps illustrate the country by zone, showing areas where people generally have the same options for obtaining food and income and engaging in trade.

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Seasonal Calendar

These calendars illustrate the monthly availability of key food and income sources, plus the starts and ends to key rainy and lean seasons. They supplement livelihoods resources and are integral to FEWS NET’s food security analysis.

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Ethiopia Seasonal Calendar
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