Delays in green meher harvest extends lean season into September

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The typical seasonal reduction in the population in need of food assistance during September has not occurred due to the delayed start of the meher harvest. The meher harvest typically begins in September with early crops in the north, but it has been delayed by at least a month as crops have yet to reach maturity for harvesting. Consequently, the lean season has been slightly extended. Food security conditions are expected to improve with the start of the meher harvest relative to recent months; however, acute food insecurity will remain a concern in Tigray, eastern Amhara, eastern Oromia, and pastoral areas of Afar, Oromia, and Somali regions through at least January 2026 amid prolonged recovery from extreme shocks and localized production deficits. Furthermore, in the pastoral south and southeast, current pasture availability and the forecasted below-average October to December deyr/hageya will impede recovery from the severe drought and potentially drive rapid deterioration in acute food security in late 2025/early 2026.
The June to September kiremt rains were generally favorable; however, delayed starts to the season, localized flooding, and rainfall deficits negatively impacted cropping activities. In areas of Tigray, according to the regional Disaster Risk Management Office, delayed rainfall and moisture deficits forced farmers to replant around 23,000 hectares (less than 5 percent of total area planted) by late August with short-cycle crops (e.g., teff, pulses) to replace failed long-cycle crops (e.g., maize, sorghum), increasing seed expenses. According to the Ethiopia Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC), in Tigray, a hailstorm damaged nearly 10,500 hectares of cropland. Rainfall declined significantly in many areas in mid-September, raising concerns that the season might end early and late-planted crops may not reach the harvesting stage. In East and West Haraghe zones of Oromia, July to September rains progressed favorably across most woredas despite a delayed onset; however, yields are still expected to be poor following the failed February to May belg rains and a delayed kiremt rainfall.
Localized landslides, flooding, and heavy rainfall occurred in August and early September, including in Sidama, Gedeo, South Ari, and Kefa zones in South Ethiopia. According to the EDRMC, this resulted in the displacement of around 4,800 people. Gedeo reported 24 fatalities, damage to 121 houses, and a washout of standing crops. Displaced households are likely to face disrupted livelihoods, and production is likely to decline in areas where crops have been destroyed.
Nationally, the meher harvest is expected to be average despite localized production deficits, a delayed onset of the June to September kiremt rains, and localized damage from extreme weather events like flooding and hailstorms. According to the EDRMC, as reported in mid-September, area planted for meher crops countrywide is around 92 percent of average. The start of the green harvest in northern cropping zones typically begins in late September and will gradually extend south. However, this year most crops are still only in the flowering to seed-setting stages, delaying the start of the meher harvest. Kiremt rains are forecasted to decrease by late September, increasing the risk of moisture deficits during the critical seed-setting and flowering stages, which may adversely impact production levels.
In Afar, the July to September karan/karma rainy season began about a month late; however, generally favorable rainfall in August and September increased pasture availability, which is supporting modest improvements in livestock body conditions in the near term. Unfortunately, extremely high temperatures – including daytime highs of 41°C reported in Semera in mid-September – are likely to accelerate evapotranspiration and the drying of pastures before they fully redevelop. Pasture quality is expected to decline rapidly towards the end of 2025, and livestock conditions (which only partially recovered following drought conditions in early 2025) are expected to decline as pastures dry. These conditions will most likely continue to constrain the production of milk and meat, as well as livestock reproduction.
Pasture shortages are already of concern in the pastoral south and southeast particularly in areas of Afder, Liben, and Korahe zones. Forecasts indicate a likely below-average October to December deyr/hageya season, marking a second consecutive below-average season in some areas. Pasture is expected to only partially regenerate, minimally supporting livestock body conditions and productivity into early 2026 and delaying recovery from the 2020-2023 drought. In a worst-case scenario of significantly below-average late 2025 rainfall, livestock conditions would deteriorate sharply, driving a rapid deterioration in acute food insecurity during the January–February 2026 dry season.
According to the Ethiopia Statistical Service, annual headline inflation continues to fall, reaching its lowest level since March at 13.6 percent in August. Despite the decline in the annual inflation rate, staple food prices in September are stable or modestly increased compared to August and persist above last year’s levels. According to the Disaster Risk Management Bureau, wheat and maize prices in Woldia, Amhara, increased by 19 and 14 percent, respectively, compared to the same time last year. Sorghum prices are stable, reflecting lower demand following its recent inclusion in the humanitarian food basket. In southern belg-producing areas, the average harvest increased market supply, stabilizing food prices; however, prices remain above average. According to WFP, August maize prices in Wolaita Sodo in southern Ethiopia were 26 percent higher than the five-year average, despite stability compared to prior months and the same time last year.
According to the Food Cluster, 3.5 million people received humanitarian food assistance in August, a nearly 8 percent decrease from the 3.8 million people who received assistance in July. Distribution reports from the EDRMC were unavailable at the time of this report, and the number of people actually reached with food assistance is likely higher. Assistance distributions were concentrated in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, Somali, and Afar regions. Fuel shortages (particularly in Tigray), security constraints in Amhara and Oromia, and flooding in low-lying areas in Somali impeded assistance distributions.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Ethiopia Key Message Update September 2025 - January 2026: Delays in green meher harvest extends lean season into September, 2025.

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