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As the meher harvest begins, food consumption gaps diminish for millions

As the meher harvest begins, food consumption gaps diminish for millions

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • The 2024 meher harvest, which begins in September/October, is gradually improving acute food insecurity for millions of people across the country. Once the harvest is fully underway, outcomes across much of the north will likely improve to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while outcomes in much of central and eastern Ethiopia will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1). Conversely, in pastoral areas of Afar with low livestock holdings, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are anticipated to continue until at least early 2025 as updated rainfall forecasts for early 2025 are now showing a high likelihood of below-average rainfall during the next livestock production cycle. Meanwhile, in the pastoral south and southeast, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are anticipated as food and income sources from livestock still need multiple seasons to recover to normal levels.
    • Outside of conflict-affected areas of the north, a contributing factor to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes among portions of the population during the harvest period are flood-induced crop losses. In September, heavy rainfall occurred in various regions, leading to both flash floods and overflow of major rivers. As a result, there were flood reports from many woredas in Gambella and South Ethiopia. Some areas received below-average rainfall in September, including Dubti, Kori, and Elidar woredas in Afar and Bale and the lowlands of Arsi in Oromia; however, seasonal rainfall is near normal with minimal impacts on pasture and crops.
    • The status of cropping activities is varied in areas of concern, as is typical at this time of year. In Amhara, the green harvest began in September. In Tigray, while some crops are ready for harvest, most are still in the flowering and grain-filling stages and harvesting will likely begin in October. In Oromia, agricultural activities are progressing well and on time with most crops in the vegetative stage, despite challenges including flooding, landslides, a shortage of improved seeds, and infestations of rust and armyworms in various zones. In the southern and southeastern regions, land preparation for the deyr/hageya agricultural season is ongoing and timely.
    • Conflict between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and the Fano militia persisted in different parts of Amhara Region through September, particularly in West Gojjam, North Wello, North Shewa, and East Gojjam, and, to a lesser extent, South Gondar, South Wello, Central Gondar, and Awi. There are no consistent, specific epicenters of clashes; the intensity and location of clashes is constantly shifting. The conflict in Oromia continues but at a lower intensity, and political tensions in Western Tigray persist. In conflict-affected areas, access to employment to generate cash income is limited and disrupts the smooth flow of market and trade activities along with disruption to agricultural activities, and these factors will contribute to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and higher outcomes during the harvest period. 
    • Since the macroeconomic reform instituted nearly two months ago, the Ethiopian birr (ETB) has depreciated month-on-month. As of the end of September, the ETB has been devalued by 91 percent in the official market and 13 percent in the parallel market compared to July. As detailed in FEWS NET’s August Key Message Update, no notable increases in the prices of domestic staple foods have occurred in response to the depreciation of the currency, but prices remain higher compared to last year and the average. Imported food prices have slightly increased; for example, in August, prices of some imported foods in Somali Region increased by 4 to 11 percent. Across the country, cooking oil prices continue to be most affected, increasing by 20 to 40 percent compared to the pre-reform period. 
    • According to the Food Cluster, humanitarians reached a total of 4.4 million people in August, similar to July. The majority of food assistance deliveries were to Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and Afar regions. At the regional level, distributions generally increased from July to August, but this was offset by a nearly 20 percent decrease in distributions in Tigray due to insecurity. Access and security challenges have also impeded food assistance delivery in sub-regional areas with frequent and/or sustained conflict in Amhara, Benishangul Gumuz, Somali, and Oromia.
    • Recent survey data indicate the prevalence of acute malnutrition remained high, as expected, in northern Ethiopia at the peak of the lean season. SMART+ surveys conducted in July 2024 in the Teru Pastoral livelihood zone (Afar) and from July to August across Tigray showed concerning levels of acute malnutrition. In Teru Pastoral zone of Afar, Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) and Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) rates by weight-for-height z-score were 19.4 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively; this GAM prevalence indicates Critical (GAM 15 to 29.9 percent) levels of acute malnutrition. The findings in Tigray also indicate that all zones exhibited Serious (GAM 10 to 14.9 percent) to Critical GAM prevalence by weight-for-height z-score, with the highest (21 percent) reported in the Eastern Zone. 

    Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Ethiopia Key Message Update September 2024: As the meher harvest begins, food consumption gaps diminish for millions, 2024.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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