Key Message Update

Flooding due to above-average Kiremt rainfall and increased internal displacement contributes to high needs

September 2020

September 2020

October 2020 - January 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to continue in northern Afar and southern and southeastern pastoral Ethiopia through at least early 2021. Some of the worst-affected areas, including pastoral lowlands of Oromia, northern and central Afar, and much of the Somali region, face the compounding impacts of multiple weather shocks and conflict-related displacement. Additionally, many poor households are not only facing high stable food prices but also lower than typical income and are having difficulty accessing food. The anticipated below-average deyr/Hagaya season, slightly below-average Meher harvest, and continued lower than average access to income across much of the country is anticipated to continue contributing to high assistance needs.

  • Between June and September 2020, the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases increased twelve-fold. Despite the significant increase, the State of Emergency expired on September 5. As a result, transportation services have restarted, and people are moving more freely, though not all people respect public regulations.  

  • In September, reports from multiple sources, including the government and FAO, confirm the presence of desert locusts are in Dire Dewa, Ayasha highlands of Hararghe, bordering areas of Amhara and Afar, and bordering areas of Tigray and Afar. Swarms are also arriving from Yemen, which multiplied, traveling to eastern Amhara. According to the Regional Bureau of Agriculture, in September, desert locusts have already damaged over 150 hectares of cropland. Moreover, according to the same source, desert locusts have also been invading parts of South Wollo and Oromia Zone of Amhara. 

  • June to September kiremt rainfall has been generally average to above average, favoring crop development; however, total meher production is likely to be slightly below average due to limited inputs and destruction of crops associated with flooding. Heavy rainfall in western Oromia, SNNPR, Amhara, Afar, and Gambella Regions resulted in flooding and the overflowing of rivers and dams. According to the NDRMC, as of early August, about 1.1 million people are affected, and 310,000 people are displaced due to flooding. Moreover, according to key informants and the logistics cluster, areas around the Awash river basin, Lake Tana, and some other flood-affected areas are difficult to access by humanitarian actors and traders. 

  • Insecurity and localized conflict between ethnic groups and insurgents, mainly in areas of the Benishangul Gumuze region and Bale, and Arsi Zones of Oromia, as well as armed clashes between unidentified armed groups and the government in Guji and Wolega Zone of Oromia, have generally increased. This has led to higher levels of internal displacement. Displaced populations’ livelihoods are typically disrupted, and find themselves in new areas where they often have difficulty accessing sufficient income or food to meet their minimum needs. As a result, many of these newly displaced populations are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics