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Crop losses likely significant in parts of eastern and central Oromia and SNNPR

  • Key Message Update
  • Ethiopia
  • September 2016
Crop losses likely significant in parts of eastern and central Oromia and SNNPR

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  • Key Messages
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    Key Messages
    • With start of the Meher harvest in October/November, food security is expected to improve substantially in Tigray, Amhara, and highlands of Oromia and SNNPR to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through at least January 2017.  This will also likely begin to lead to a substantial reduction in the total number of people classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), although needs may remain higher than usual due to longer recovery periods in pastoral areas and poor seasonal progress in some agricultural and agro-pastoral areas. 

    • Below-average rainfall and prolonged dry spells since early August have resulted in moisture stress and crop loss in the lowlands of East and West Harerghe, Arsi, West Arsi, East Shewa and the eastern half of SNNPR. Poor seasonal performance, combined with crop diseases affecting maize and potatoes, is likely to lead to a second consecutive year of below-average production in these areas. 

    • Forecast below-average rainfall between October and December in southern and southeastern areas of Ethiopia will likely result in poor regeneration of pastoral resources, such as browse and water sources, and in below-average crop production in agro-pastoral areas. Reduced access to food and income from livestock and livestock products is likely to lead to a deterioration to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January 2017. 

    • Poor rainfall in February/March, heavy rainfall in April/May, and again inadequate moisture since early August have led to poor performance of coffee in Gedeo, Sidama, and parts of West Hararghe zones with a prospect of much below average production this year. This would lead to income losses by both producers and agricultural laborers. Below-average demand for labor is also likely to lead to less income from wage labor for agricultural laborers. 

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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