Drought deepens in south while crop loss limits food access in East Hararghe

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Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes – including increasing incidence of acute malnutrition and related mortality – are expected to emerge in the lowlands of East Hararghe Zone, Oromia Region in early 2026 following one of the worst meher crop losses observed. The November 2025 zonal pre-meher assessment estimated a 54 percent production loss in East Hararghe and a 34 percent loss in West Hararghe, reflecting localized severe rainfall deficits. These deficits will sharply limit household food stocks and incomes, driving large consumption gaps through May 2026. Notably, the Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit (ENCU) dashboard shows rising severe acute malnutrition (SAM) cases in the East and West Hararghe, which together accounted for 26 percent of all Oromia regional Therapeutic Feeding Program (TFP) admissions in September.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to be widespread in southern and southeastern pastoral areas, including much of Somali, Borana (Oromia), and South Omo (South Ethiopia) due to conflict and recurrent drought that continue to erode livestock-related food and income. October to December 2025 rains are expected to reach near-record lows in these areas. Many areas received only 30 percent of average rainfall, and southern Liben and Afder recorded one of the driest seasons on record. Extreme temperatures – roughly 5 degrees F above average – are further accelerating moisture loss and driving vegetation stress. Most water points are near-dry, particularly in Dawa and Korahahe. The ongoing territorial dispute along the Borena-Somali border continues to restrict mobility for people and livestock. The combination of high temperatures, severe rainfall deficits, and limited water availability is expected to substantially reduce pasture quality, weaken livestock health, and constrain milk production in the near-term. The March-May gu/genna rains are presently forecasted to be average, likely improving pastures and animal health, and thereby reducing pressures on food security.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in areas of Tigray and Amhara starting by February, despite current improvements in acute food insecurity given the ongoing meher harvest. By mid-November, roughly 33 percent of crops in Amhara and 60 percent in Tigray had been harvested, with the harvest expected to conclude by December. Based on field reports, production levels are likely to be low for late-planted crops and crops affected by moisture deficits in late September and early October during seed-setting and grain-filling. Losses are most pronounced in Southern and Eastern zones and the lowlands of Central and Southeastern Tigray, as well as the lowlands of Wag Himra and North Wello in Amhara. As the March to May lean season approaches, early seasonal depletion of food stocks is expected. In Amhara, where TFP admissions rose 19 and 42 percent compared to last year and the five-year average, respectively, this will likely leave many households with food consumption gaps, Areas of concern include North Wello and Wag Himra (Amhara) and the Central Zone (Tigray).
Armed conflict continues across multiple areas in November, with a growing risk of escalation over the next few months. In Amhara, intensified fighting that began in North and South Wollo Zone expanded across the region in October and November, with recent government operations targeting Fano positions further escalating the conflict. In Tigray, clashes increased in late October through November between Tigray Defense Force (TDF) and Tigray Peace Force (TPF) near the Afar border, prompting intervention by the National Defense Force. These incidents intermittently restricted movement, impeded market access, and disrupted livelihoods. In Afar, conflict in Megale woreda in early November 2025 led to significant displacement and casualties when Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) forces crossed into the region and seized several villages; the Afar Regional Communication Bureau estimates that around 18,000 people – primarily women and children – were displaced.
The Ethiopia Statistical Service (ESS) reported that annual headline inflation continues to steadily decline, reaching 11.7 percent in October 2025. This marks the fifth consecutive month of easing inflation, with food inflation recorded in October at 10.2 percent year-on-year. The ETB continued to weaken against the USD, depreciating by 3.2 percent in October compared to September. Staple food prices in October 2025 remained stable but higher than last year. Sorghum prices according to WFP in September in the Sekota market remain stable compared to previous months, yet increased by 8 percent compared to last year, for example.
On November 24, the Hayli Gubbi volcano erupted in northern Afar. High-altitude winds carried most of the ash plume eastward across the Red Sea, reducing the risk of local ash fall, though localized air-quality and livelihood impacts remain likely near the eruption site. The eruption follows a 5.7-magnitude earthquake on theOctober 11 that struck Berahle and Konneba woredas, displacing more than 54,000 people – 40 percent of the population – after destroying 1,400 homes and numerous water points. Both events occurred within the highly active Afar rift system. This area is already facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and the loss of shelter, water access, and basic services is expected to further disrupt livelihoods and strain already limited coping capacity.
According to the Food Cluster, 1.3 million people received humanitarian food assistance in October, nearly 46 percent fewer people than September recipients, and 40 percent lower than the number assisted in October 2024. Distribution reports from the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC) were unavailable at the time of this report, and the number of people reached with food assistance is likely somewhat higher. Assistance distributions were concentrated in Tigray, Amhara, Somali, and Oromia regions.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Ethiopia Key Message Update November 2025: Drought deepens in south while crop loss limits food access in East Hararghe, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.