Key Message Update

Desert locusts and late unseasonable rainfall continue to threaten the ongoing Meher harvest

November 2019

November 2019 - January 2020

February - May 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Desert locusts continue to threaten the ongoing Meher harvest. According to FAO, locusts have invaded an estimated 56 woredas of Afar, Amhara, Oromia, Somali, and Tigray regions. In Amhara, nearly 75,000 hectares of both crop and rangeland were infested according to the Regional Bureau of Agriculture. Some localized areas are reporting crop losses and households are harvesting immature crops to avoid large-scale crop losses. In affected pastoral areas of Afar, Oromia, and Somali Regions, desert locusts are feeding on pasture and vegetation, which is decreasing the availability for livestock. Desert Locusts are expected to continue hatching, specifically in Somali Region as conditions are largely favorable for breading. Current protection measures are unable to control the outbreak due to the rugged nature of the topography and conflict in some areas.

  • Unseasonable rainfall continued in November 2019, which has started to negatively impact the Meher harvest in areas of Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray regions. Since most Meher crops are at the ripening and harvesting stages, the unseasonable rainfall is causing some crop seed shattering and rotting. If unseasonable rain continues, there is likely to be a decrease in the Meher harvest at the household level in affected areas, although, the full extent of the impact of both the unseasonable rainfall and desert locusts is yet to be fully assessed. However, national Meher production is still expected to be average.

  • Cumulative rainfall for the October to December Deyr/Hagaya season is significantly above average due to heavy rainfall in October. Rainfall continued in November, although not as heavy as in October. The heavy October rainfall resulted in flooding in riverain areas resulting in the damage of household assets, infrastructure, and the displacement of households. Despite the short-term impacts, flooding in the long term typically has a positive effect, improving pastureland and water for livestock. This is expected to improve livestock production and productivity in the medium term. Since reports of flooding in mid-October, no new flooding events have been reported.

  • Due to the combined impacts of conflict and below average Belg and Kiremt 2019 seasonal rains in areas of the country, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present along the Tekeze catchment of Tigray and Amhara and north pastoral areas of Afar, east and west Hararghe, lowlands of Bale and Guji and Borana Zones of Oromia. Additionally, most parts of Somali Region are also in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) where households continue to have below average herd sizes. The rest of the country is facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1), specifically areas where the Meher harvest is ongoing.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics