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Deyr/Hageya rainfall significantly below average over southeastern Ethiopia

  • Key Message Update
  • Ethiopia
  • November 2016
Deyr/Hageya rainfall significantly below average over southeastern Ethiopia

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Meher harvests starting in October have begun to improve food security in many areas and significantly reduced the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. However, poor Kiremt rainfall in eastern and central Oromia and SNNPR, low livestock holdings in pastoral southern Afar and Shinile, and poor performance of October to December rainfall in southeastern pastoral areas are likely to lead to above-average food assistance needs in 2016/17. 

    • The Deyr/Hageya (October to December) season has largely failed in southern Somali Region, with rainfall only slightly better in South Omo of SNNPR, and Bale, Guji, and Borena of Oromia. Following locally poor Gu 2016 rains and the dry season between May and September, severe water and pasture shortages are being reported. Livestock body conditions are deteriorating and atypical livestock migration and deaths have been reported, particularly in Afder and Borena woredas. Livestock births and productivity will likely remain below average into 2017. 

    • A combination of higher than normal staple food prices and deteriorating livestock body conditions are contributing to below-average purchasing power for households in southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas. For example, wholesale maize prices in Sodo and Gode markets in October 2016 were 23 percent and 8 percent higher than in October 2015, and 13 and 46 percent higher than the recent five-year average. In Gode, goats-to-maize terms of trade (TOT) were about 44 percent lower than the recent five-year average.

    • Staple food prices remain above average in most local markets of the country. Apart from slight reductions in grain prices reported from the northern parts of the country following the start of fresh harvest, staple food prices in northern, central, southern, and southeastern markets remain higher than usual. For instance, the October 2016 price of maize in Mekele and Dire Dawa markets are 24 and 26 percent higher, respectively, compared to October 2015.  

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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