Kiremt rainfall likely to be at least average, with increased risk of flooding in some areas

More than 10 million people require emergency food assistance in 2016, following El Niño-induced drought in 2015 that resulted in very poorBelgandMeherharvests, significant livestock deaths and reductions in livestock productivity, and reduced household access to food and cash income. Worst-affected areas include Wag Himra, East and West Hararghe, and pastoral areas in Shinile and southern Afar, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will continue through at least September 2016.

Following poor Belg rainfall performance in February and March, heavy seasonal rainfall in April and May significantly improved Belg cropping prospects. Nevertheless, poor early season performance and heavy flooding in some cropping areas is likely to result in moderately below-average Belg harvests. In areas such as East and West Hararghe, where deficits were significant, farmers were forced to totally skip seasonal planting.

Increased rainfall has also significantly improved the availability of pasture, browse, and water, resulting in recovery in the body conditions of livestock, especially small ruminants. In several areas in Afar, for instance, where traditional dry season grazing grounds had been left barren from overgrazing and severe drought, vegetation cover is returning to normal. Despite improvements in livestock body conditions, the continuing low rate of livestock births is leading below-average milk production.

Torrential rainfall in April and May 2016 caused severe flooding and landslides that destroyed crops and prelimarily estimates suggest up to 196,000 people may have been temporarily displaced. The areas affected by the floods include Fafan and Korahe zones in Somali, Gabi zone in Afar, Arsi and East Shewa zones in Oromia Regions, and Dire Dawa. Immediate assistance is needed for temporarily displaced households, but a small minority of households will face extended displacement and a complete loss of productive assets, and will require assistance through at least September 2016.

Recent national and international forecasts for the June to September 2016 Kiremt season indicate an increased likelihood for average to above-average rainfall. This is likely to lead to favorable cropping conditions in Meher-producing areas, improved livestock body conditions, and increases in livestock prices. However, excessive rainfall could result in additional flash and river flooding that could displace large populations, destroy homes and crops, and increase humanitarian assistance needs in major flood-prone areas.