Weather shocks and tensions in the north sustain high food assistance needs

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The trajectory of acute food insecurity in Ethiopia should be understood in the context of challenges stemming from the erosion of agricultural production and market functionality in Tigray and neighboring areas during the 2020-2022 war, as well as the slow recovery of livestock herds in the pastoral south and southeast after the historic 2020-2023 drought. Millions of households are still recovering from or affected by multiple shocks, including drought, conflict, and poor macroeconomic conditions. In late 2024, FEWS NET anticipated relatively lower food assistance needs from January to May 2025 compared to the same period of 2024. A generally favorable 2024 meher harvest and improved livestock productivity were anticipated to support less severe Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes across most of northern, southern, and eastern Ethiopia, compared to the extreme severity of acute food insecurity observed from 2020 to early 2024. However, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes were still expected in western Afar and remote areas of Tigray in the north, as well as among destitute and displaced pastoral populations in Somali and Oromia regions who have not recovered from drought-related livestock losses.
Currently, food assistance needs are expected to reach an annual peak through August; while a relative decline in need is then expected from September through late 2025, food assistance needs are expected to remain high in the north, east, and south. The main June to September lean season is ongoing, and many poor rural households are market-dependent for food but have lower-than-normal purchasing power. The areas of high concern include much of Tigray, where household assets and the local economy are still recovering from these shocks, as well as areas of Amhara and Oromia (East and West Hararghe), where the belg harvest failed in early 2025. Pastoral areas in east and northern Afar (Zones 1, 2, and 4), South Omo Zone of South Ethiopia Region, and Liben and Afder zones of Somali Region are also of high concern, as drought-related low herd sizes and high food prices continue to limit household income and access to food. Once the national meher harvest becomes available in September/October, many households in western and central Ethiopia will likely start accessing food from their own production, and the increase in national supply will drive a seasonal decline in food prices countrywide.
The performance of the early 2025 rainy seasons was mixed, but deep deficits occurred in several northern, eastern, and central areas of the country. From February to May, belg rainfall was generally below average and failed in belg-dependent areas of Amhara and Tigray regions and East and West Hararghe and East Shewa zones of Oromia. Rainfall was average in the remaining belg-dependent areas (primarily in southern Ethiopia). Meanwhile, the February to May diraac/sugum rains failed in Afar and the northern areas of Somali Region. A poor March to May gu/genna season was observed in the rest of Somali Region and most areas of the pastoral south and southeast, marked by a slow start and localized irregular rainfall.
In northern pastoral areas of Afar Region, the failure of the February to May diraac/sugum rains, combined with the delayed start of karma/karan rainfall, is prolonging drought conditions that have persisted since early 2024, leading to critically low pasture and water availability. In most woredas, nearby water sources have dried up, prompting communities and their livestock to migrate atypically early in March/April 2025 toward perennial rivers (such as the Awash, Mile, and Awura) and neighboring regions. Similarly, in northern pastoral areas of Somali Region, the failure of the gu rains has resulted in shortages of pasture, water, and livestock feed. Across these regions, livestock body conditions are deteriorating, especially among livestock located far from perennial rivers. In Afar, FEWS NET observed, very poor livestock body conditions have been observed, particularly among cattle. Livestock deaths have been reported alongside low birthing and milking rates. Milk is not widely available, which is atypical and concerning for this time of year.
Afar has not only been impacted by prolonged drought conditions. In July, the Afdera windstorm, the Erta Ale volcanic eruption, and the Dallole fire further negatively impacted households. The windstorm and fire resulted in human and livestock deaths, property destruction, significant infrastructure damage, and displacement. According to the regional Disaster and Risk Management office, over 2,000 households were affected. Life-saving assistance is currently being provided by the government and humanitarian partners; however, it is insufficient to meet the food consumption needs of displaced households. Both displaced and drought-affected households are facing difficulty accessing food.
The poor 2025 belg rains severely restricted planting and crop development in central and eastern Oromia, southern Tigray, and eastern Amhara regions, resulting in significant harvest losses. Preliminary findings from the Multi-Agency Belg Seasonal Assessment indicate the belg harvests in Tigray and Amhara essentially failed, with only 10 and 26 percent of average production, respectively. The report also indicates a decline in harvests in agropastoral areas of Afar, affecting food access for households that rely on their production and income from agricultural labor. In Oromia, the assessment indicated mixed crop expectations, with harvests ranging from significantly below average to average across various zones. East and West Hararghe were the worst-affected with the failure of belg crops due to poor rainfall. Despite these reductions in crop yields, belg production is estimated to be average in southern Ethiopia as rainfall was generally favorable.
In southern and southeastern pastoral areas, pasture and water availability vary, with most zones reporting adequate conditions except for in Afder, Liben, and other localized areas. In Afder and Liben, the gu/genna season ended over a month early, further limiting pasture and water resource recovery from the 2020-2023 drought. Livestock are migrating atypically in the region, predominantly within Afder and Liben and from Somalia. Livestock migrating to areas with better pasture are exhibiting generally good body conditions except for some localized areas where pasture is poor. During the June to September dry period, pastures are likely to dry amid high temperatures. Forecasts for the October to December deyr/hageya rainfall suggest below-average levels, which will likely support moderate pasture and body condition improvements. However, uncertainty still exists in the late 2025 forecast with the probability of La Niña only slightly above ENSO neutral conditions.
The ongoing June to September kiremt rains were delayed, with minimal rainfall observed from June to mid-July. In late July, rainfall finally began in some areas of western and central Ethiopia; however, large rainfall deficits are still likely. Land preparation was delayed due to the late rainfall onset, but planting of 2025 meher crops is now underway in most meher-dependent areas. In areas where the belg rains failed, some households have tried to plant short-maturing meher crops to make up for belg crop losses. According to the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission, about 54, 34, and 11 percent of the average cultivated area in Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray regions, respectively, had been planted by mid-July. This is roughly half the land planted in Amhara and Tigray by this time last year. Planting will likely continue into August for crops such as teff and chickpea.
Despite the poor start to kiremt rainfall, forecasts indicate cumulative rainfall for the season is expected to be above average. Improved rainfall will likely support proper crop development among short-maturing (3-month) crops, allowing for near-average yields for meher crops planted in June/July. However, the meher harvest starting in September/October is likely to be below average due to the failure of high-yield, long-maturing meher crops planted earlier in the year, particularly in the northeastern maize and sorghum belt. In addition, flooding in riverine areas is expected and will likely result in some localized crop and livestock losses.
Conflict remains concentrated in northern Ethiopia, albeit lower in intensity than in past years. Conflict in Amhara escalated slightly in June and has particularly impacted employment opportunities and population movements, as well as disrupting market functionality and trade intermittently. In Tigray, localized clashes occurred in early July. Although no widespread fighting has been reported since, tensions remain high between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the federal government. There are growing concerns for the potential of renewed conflict, with speculation about possible involvement of the Eritrean Defense Forces. If conflict erupts in Tigray, it would significantly impact household livelihoods (depending on its timing, location, and intensity), as well as disrupt roads, markets, income sources, and agricultural activities. Given limited recovery from the 2020–2023 conflict, further instability would likely worsen an already fragile situation.
Despite modest improvements in annual headline inflation and foreign currency reserves, overall macroeconomic conditions remain concerning, with lower-than-normal engagement in the economy and markets countrywide. Since the announcement of major economic reforms in July 2024, Ethiopia has faced pronounced currency depreciation. The ETB depreciated by approximately 58 percent on the official market in July compared to the same time last year, affecting prices of various goods, most notably fuel. Diesel prices increased from 83.74 ETB/liter in July 2024 to 116.49 ETB/liter in July 2025, a nearly 40 percent surge. High diesel prices and ongoing fuel shortages are contributing to elevated food prices and hampering the movement of people and goods, including humanitarian assistance and food.
According to the Food Cluster, humanitarians reached 2.8 million people with in-kind assistance, and 275,000 people received cash (levels more or less stable compared to the previous month) in Afar, Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray regions. Fuel shortages, particularly in regions such as Tigray, are constraining the dispatch and distribution of humanitarian assistance. Additionally, security constraints impeded the timely dispatch and distribution of food assistance in Amhara, Oromia, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. Flooding in low-lying areas further obstructed logistics, particularly in Somali Region, where damaged roads hindered commodity transport.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Ethiopia Key Message Update July 2025: Weather shocks and tensions in the north sustain high food assistance needs, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.