Emergency (IPC Phase 4) persists in areas of northern Ethiopia

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As the peak of the lean season is ongoing in July and August, millions of people are facing difficulty accessing food due to the impact of constrained household income and high food prices on their purchasing capacity. Households are still recovering from or affected by multiple past and current shocks including drought, conflict, and poor macroeconomic conditions, and the next major harvest will not begin until September/October. In areas where large-scale food assistance is partially mitigating or preventing food consumption deficits in northern Ethiopia, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes, respectively, are mapped. In areas of northern Ethiopia where levels of food assistance are insufficient to prevent large food consumption gaps – especially in hard-to-reach areas – Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are mapped. In Tigray and northeastern Amhara, there is a risk of more extreme outcomes until the meher harvest becomes available in September/October. Elsewhere, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected across much of the rest of the country.
In September/October, the population in need of food assistance is expected to significantly decline across much of the country as households access food from own-production in meher-producing areas and domestic market supplies increase seasonally. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are still expected to be widespread due to atypical shortfalls in other key sources of food and income – such as livestock and migratory labor – and low purchasing capacity; localized instances of flooding and landslides are also expected to be a contributing factor. In Afar, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist due to the slow, inadequate recovery of livestock assets from prior conflict and drought and limited other sources of income for food purchases.
In southern and southeastern pastoral areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to remain widespread into early 2025 as households have yet to recover their productive assets from the impacts of the late 2020 to early 2023 drought and now face the prospect of a La Niña-induced, below-average rainy season in late 2025. Households have only had three seasons to replenish their livestock holdings, and while pasture is currently expected to be sufficient for livestock consumption through the next rainy season starting in October, the October to December deyr/hageya rainfall is forecast to be below-average. In the most likely scenario, the rains will partially regenerate pasture in the near-term, but pasture availability in early 2025 (prior to the 2025 March to May gu/genna season) will likely be atypically low and reduce livestock health and productivity. If a worst-case scenario materializes in which rainfall deficits are poor in late 2024, then the impacts on livestock production would be severe, and acute food insecurity could deteriorate more rapidly, notably during the dry season in January and February 2025.
In late July, the International Monetary Fund approved a four-year financing package of around 3.4 billion USD for budget and economic reforms support, alongside the World Bank's approval of an additional $1.5 billion aimed at supporting reforms. The National Bank of Ethiopia also eased foreign currency holding requirements by commercial banks and exporters to increase the supply of USD and boost economic activity in the medium to long term. However, the economy will need to adjust to these reforms, and a rapid increase in food prices and other essential items is expected in the short-term. Over the next year, the official currency value is expected to depreciate further to align with the parallel market exchange rate, where the Ethiopian Birr (ETB) is trading at 122 ETB/USD.
As FEWS NET reported in June, the terms of the financing deal required Ethiopia to float the ETB; this occurred on July 29, leading to a nearly 30 percent depreciation in the ETB on the formal market. Immediately following this announcement, traders on the parallel market stopped selling USD, marking a stark shift from June when traders were actively selling USD at a value over 100 percent higher than the ETB on the formal market. Businesses raised the prices of key goods, including food, in response. The government closed some businesses that allegedly implemented unreasonable price increases, notably for food. To cushion the impact of these reforms, the government has allocated a spending package equivalent to about 1.5 percent of GDP, including subsidies for food, fuel, and fertilizers.
The belg harvest is approaching its conclusion in July, and available information from the regional Disaster Risk Management Bureau (DRMC) suggests aggregate national 2024 production is incrementally higher than last year and near the five-year average. In Oromia, belg production is nearly 10 percent higher than last year; however, some production deficits were reported in some zones, like East and West Hararghe, where production decreased by nearly 30 and 40 percent, respectively, compared to 2023. The decline in production is due to a dry spell during critical crop development followed by heavy rainfall, leading to waterlogging and flooding, as well as pests and diseases. In Amhara, according to the regional DRMC, 2024 production is 51 percent higher than in 2023, primarily related to the more favorable rainfall in 2024.
While the June to September 2024 kiremt/karma rainy season has been generally favorable so far, heavy rainfall in areas of South Omo and Gofa zones of South Ethiopia and East Shewa Zone of Oromia Region has resulted in localized flooding and landslides. According to the zonal DRMC, over 442 hectares of farmland have been damaged in East Shewa Zone. Meanwhile, OCHA reports that landslides on July 21 and 22 in Geze Gofa woreda in Gofa Zone resulted in nearly 200 deaths, displaced almost 600 people, and affected a total of 15,000 people to varying degrees; however, the landslides occurred in relatively populated areas and impacts on crop production were minimal. Other landslides have been reported in areas of southern Ethiopia and Oromia Region but at a lower scale. Given the forecast for favorable rainfall through September, additional flooding is likely in low-lying and flood-prone areas.
Agricultural activities for meher production are underway and ongoing normally across most of the country. National production prospects are near normal, with near-normal production anticipated in the west and north and below-normal production anticipated in the east, in line with FEWS NET’s earlier forecasts. There have been some disruptions to planting in Amhara due to the ongoing conflict and limits to agricultural input supply availability as trade routes are disrupted. According to the Amhara Regional Agriculture Office, 87 percent of the land has been cultivated, and of that, 63 percent has already been planted compared to the plan. In Tigray as of mid-July, according to the FAO report, 44 percent of the land has been cultivated, and of that, 34 percent has already been planted. However, there are no available reports for the western zone.
According to the Food Cluster, nearly 5.2 million people received food assistance countrywide in June, an increase of over 1.1 million people from May. The scale-up of food aid delivery was notable in Somali and Oromia regions, where assistance delivery increased by over 50 percent. Assistance distributions continue to be concentrated in areas where acute food insecurity is the most severe: Somali, Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray regions. While assistance distribution declined in June in Afar, the high levels of assistance in April and May continue to partially mitigate food consumption deficits among households.
According to the IOM, between April and May there were over 3.3 million IDPs across Ethiopia, a slight 3 percent increase from the last assessment completed in late 2023. Despite some improvements since late 2023 in Amhara, many areas remain inaccessible, and it is likely that the level of both national displacement and displacement within Amhara are higher than currently reported. Conflict is the primary cause of displacement, accounting for nearly 2.27 million IDPs, or nearly 70 percent of displacements, followed by drought. Somali, Oromia, and Tigray regions account for the highest levels of regional displacement. Displaced populations reside in camps and among the host community, accessing income for food purchases through self-employment activities, labor, and petty trade.
Nationally, malnutrition concerns persist, with over 54,000 severe acute malnutrition cases admitted to therapeutic feeding programs in May (a 7 percent increase from April, but nearly 15 percent lower than the same time last year). It is important to note that the decrease in admissions compared to last year does not necessarily indicate improvement since conflict, poor reporting rates, inadequate screenings (including reliance on passive rather than active screening), few health facility employees, decreases in budgets, and inaccessibility are impacting service availability and access. Acute malnutrition is likely not only driven by inadequate food and milk intake but also disease (cholera, measles, malaria, and dengue fever) and poor sanitation, notably poor access to clean water in flooded areas. Levels of acute malnutrition are expected to increase through the peak of the lean season (August/September) before slowly declining during the meher harvest, when floodwaters subside, food consumption improves, and disease incidence declines.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Ethiopia Key Message Update July 2024: Emergency (IPC Phase 4) persists in areas of northern Ethiopia, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.