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Above-average rainfall since June favors cropping, but flooding risks remain high

  • Key Message Update
  • Ethiopia
  • July 2016
Above-average rainfall since June favors cropping, but flooding risks remain high

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • More than 10 million people require emergency food assistance in 2016, following El Niño-induced drought in 2015. Worst-affected areas include Wag Himra, East and West Hararghe, and pastoral areas in Shinile and southern Afar, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes will continue through September. Continued, regular assistance is essential in order to mitigate food consumption gaps. Assistance needs in Meher-dependant areas should begin to decrease with Meher harvests in November. 

    • Belg harvests are expected to be better than in 2015, but losses are expected due to moisture deficits both at the beginning and end of the season, and excessive rainfall-triggered water logging and flooding in April/May. Additional information on Belg production and the estimated number of people in need of assistance will be available upon release of the results from the recent multi-sector assessment.

    • Although flooding has been localized since the start of Kiremt season rainfall, short-term forecasts and seasonal forecasts suggest heavy rainfall in the coming weeks and months could lead to significant flooding in flood-prone areas. Poor households who face displacement, loss of crops, and loss of livelihood assets will likely be in greatest need of assistance. 

    • The increased likelihood for a La Niña to develop by late 2016 increases the probability rainfall during the October to December Deyr/Hageya season will be below normal in southern pastoral areas. This is expected to result in earlier depletion of water and pasture, which will likely cause declines in body conditions, productivity and market values of livestock in central and southern Somali, lowlands of Bale, Guji, and Borena, and South Omo and Segen zones. 

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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