Key Message Update

Desert locust, high food prices, and conflict threatens household food security across the country

January 2020

January 2020

February - May 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Despite average 2019/20 national Meher production, continued recovery from previous poor seasons, above-average food prices, and sporadic conflict events have resulted in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes across most eastern parts of the country. Areas worst affected by poor 2019 Kiremt rainfall and desert locusts in Amhara and Tigray Regions are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through at least May. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are also most likely in areas impacted by the below-average Belg harvest as households are reliant on markets and their purchasing power is below normal. In pastoral areas of Afar, Somali and southeast Oromia are likely to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as households continue to recover from recurrent drought and ethnic conflict.   

  • Mature desert locust swarms crossed into eastern and northeastern regions of Ethiopia from Yemen and Somalia in July 2019 and since have affected several agricultural, pastoral and agropastoral areas.  The recent above-average October to December Deyr/Hagaya season has led to favorable ecological conditions for desert locust breeding. In January 2020, the locust swarms and bands spread to southeastern pastoral areas and is likely negatively impacting vegetation. Reports also indicate that locusts are moving towards the Rift Valley. Although, current local and national control operations have been inadequate to decrease the spread of the desert locusts, according to FAO nearly 11,000 hectares of land have been controlled.

  • Households continue to be displaced by conflict events in areas of the country. According to the 2020 HRP, in January roughly 1.78 million people were displaced across the country, of which 70 percent are displaced due to conflict. According to an assessment in late December 2019, nearly 68,000 new internally displaced people (IDPs) were identified in 28 Kebeles of Liben, Gorodola, Sebaboru Sebaboru, and Agawayu Agawayu woredas in Guji Zone of Oromia Region as the result of conflict. In these areas, IDPs left most if not all their livelihood assets and property behind, as houses were burned, and people quickly fled. These households are residing either in camps, the majority, or within a host community seeking food, shelter, health, and nutritional assistance.

  • According to the Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI), a cholera outbreak is ongoing in Oromia, Somalia, and SNNPR regions as of the last week of December 2019. EPHI Reports, a total of 350 cholera cases with 15 deaths occurred from late December through mid-January. Most of the cholera cases and deaths were in SNNPR, followed by Oromia and Somali Regions. Health and nutrition agencies are working to control the outbreak. There will also likely be some impacts on food security as households will likely spend more money on healthcare and some households will forgo daily labor to care for the sick.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics