In the pastoral south, likely below-average deyr/hageya rains threaten recovery

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Humanitarian food assistance needs in Ethiopia are currently at an annual peak, driven by seasonally depleted food stocks and high fuel and staple food prices amid protracted recovery from severe shocks in 2020-2023. Starting in September/October, the availability of the meher harvest is expected to drive food access improvements countrywide as households harvest own production and increased market supply drives seasonal staple food prices down. The improved food access is expected to decrease food assistance needs countrywide; however, acute food insecurity will remain a concern in Tigray, Eastern Amhara, Eastern Oromia, and pastoral areas of Afar, Oromia, and Somali regions through at least January 2026. Moreover, in the pastoral south and southeast, the forecast below-average October to December deyr/hageya season will likely stall recovery from the severe 2020-2023 drought at a minimum, and at worst, drive deterioration in food security in late 2025.
June to September kiremt rainfall has been generally favorable to date in the western and central areas; however, rains in the northeast began slowly, and below-average conditions were present in June and July. In late July and August, rainfall became widespread in Amhara and Tigray; localized heavy rainfall raised concerns about the potential for flooding, landslides, and waterlogging in crop fields. Localized heavy rain in Central, South, and Southwest regions resulted in flooding and landslides. Late August and September rains are forecasted to be generally favorable, with most kiremt-receiving areas expected to receive average rains that support crop development.
Meher crop planting continued in August as normal. Crops planted during the standard window (June to mid-August) are at the germination to vegetation stage. According to the Ethiopia Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC), as of early August, about 13.11 million hectares of kiremt areas were planted (nearly 75 percent of average) across the eight meher-producing regions. Crops in most western areas are in generally good condition; however, poor crop conditions and even crop failure have been reported in areas of Kola Tenben woreda (Tigray), Oromo special Zone (Amhara), Dire Dawa city, Harari Region, and Bale, Borena, East Borena, West Guji, and West and East Hararghe zones (Oromia) due to poor rainfall. Due to the slow start of the kiremt season, localized rainfall deficits, extreme weather events, low availability and access to agricultural inputs, and replanting of lower-yielding crops, notably in the northeastern sorghum belt, national meher production is expected to be slightly below average.
July to September karan/karma rainfall in Afar was generally below average through mid-August in the northern and northeastern zones. Heavy rainfall in early to mid-August has erased rainfall deficits, with rainfall for the karan/karma season now average to above average. However, the heavy rains also drove flooding, strong winds, and hailstorms, causing significant damage across Gulina (Zone 4) and Kilalu and Yangudi (Zone 6) woredas. According to the regional DRMC, the storms destroyed or damaged 850 residential houses, displacing residents and damaging infrastructure.
In northern pastoral areas, pasture regeneration is ongoing, albeit lagging in parts of the north and northeast. Pasture availability for cattle is insufficient to date, and cattle continue to face poor conditions in most areas due to the ongoing poor rains and feed shortages. Camels, goats, and sheep can eat the early-season pasture; however, their body conditions have not fully recovered. Drought recovery is likely in the short to medium term as pasture becomes readily available; however, high temperatures in the upcoming dry season are expected to rapidly deplete pasture conditions, preventing full recovery of livestock conditions.
In southern and southeastern pastoral areas, pasture is available in some areas; however, pasture and water resources are rapidly drying, triggering atypical livestock migration in Siti, Erer, and areas of Korahe zones. Forecasts indicate a likely below-average October to December deyr/hageya season, marking a second below-average season in some areas of the region. Pasture is expected to only partially regenerate, and availability will likely be atypically low, resulting in reduced livestock health and productivity into early 2026, stalling recovery from the 2020-2023 drought. If a worst-case scenario materializes, in which rainfall is significantly below average in late 2025, the impacts on livestock body conditions and production would be severe, resulting in a more rapid deterioration in acute food insecurity, notably during the dry season in January and February 2025.
Conflict declined countrywide in August, including in Amhara, despite localized clashes. In Tigray, no major developments were reported, with tensions remaining elevated, specifically in the Southern Zone, where the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front reportedly attempted to dismantle the “former interim government” local administration, triggering sporadic armed conflict. Ethiopia-Eritrea border tensions continue, albeit with no significant incident. In South Ethiopia, ethnic tensions remain a concern in Amaro and Derashe Special woredas near Konso Zone, as well as in Dasenech woreda. Afar-Issa clan conflict had been generally calm since late 2024; however, a new intercommunal conflict erupted in late July in two kebeles of Hanuruka woreda in Zone 3; five people were killed, and displaced households and livestock were looted from the Afar side.
The current macroeconomic situation in Ethiopia remains concerning. According to the Ethiopia Statistical Service (ESS), the annual inflation rate declined to 13.7 percent in July, marking the lowest level in four months, down slightly from 13.9 percent in June. Despite easing inflation, the ETB continued to depreciate against the USD (by 2.9 percent in August compared to July), bringing the cumulative depreciation to 59.6 percent since the launch of the economic reform program in July 2024. Fuel prices remained unchanged in August relative to the previous month, but persistent supply shortages — particularly in Tigray — continue to pose a significant challenge to the movement of goods across the country and to drive further price increases.
Staple food prices have increased across most of the country, primarily due to limited supply and high demand amid the ongoing lean season, along with elevated fuel prices. According to the zonal DRMC in Wag Himra (Amhara), maize and wheat prices surged by 29 and 36 percent, respectively, compared to the same period last year. The sharp increase is attributed to reliance on distant supply sources and deteriorating road conditions. Month-on-month trends also indicate rising costs: in Logia market (Afar), the regional DRMC reports August maize flour prices increased by 12.5 percent from July. In Tigray, prices rose marginally despite significant market pressures from increased fuel costs. Minimal-to-moderate price increases are straining household purchasing power and limiting food access during the peak of the lean season, but are partly offset by agricultural labor income. Food prices are expected to decline with the harvest in October as market supplies increase, but prices are expected to remain above average.
According to the Food Cluster, approximately 3.7 million people received food assistance in July, similar to June when around 3.7 million people were reached. Assistance deliveries remained concentrated in the Tigray, Amhara, Somali, Oromia, and Afar regions. Key operational challenges persist and continue to impede the timely dispatch and delivery of assistance, including fuel shortages — particularly in Tigray — and ongoing security constraints in Amhara, Oromia, and Benishangul Gumuz.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Ethiopia Key Message Update August 2025: In the pastoral south, likely below-average deyr/hageya rains threaten recovery, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.