Food assistance needs peak in August in advance of the meher harvest

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In August, millions of households across western, northern, central, and southern Ethiopia are experiencing acute food insecurity at the peak of the lean season, as low purchasing capacity is limiting their access to food following conflict, weather, and economic shocks. Much of northern Ethiopia is facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes. Meanwhile, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are widespread in the rest of Ethiopia’s cropping areas and in the agropastoral east, center, and south.
In September/October, households that rely on the meher harvest will begin to access food from own-production as the green harvests become available for consumption. Seasonal food and income from the harvest will then become increasingly available during the October to December harvest period, alleviating the severity of food insecurity. As a result, most cropping and agropastoral areas are expected to relatively improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely persist in pastoral areas that previously experienced large livestock losses due to drought or conflict. In parts of Afar, where livestock holdings are particularly low, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected to persist into early 2025.
Since late 2023, FEWS NET has warned that more severe outcomes would occur in areas of Tigray and northeastern Amhara if social support and humanitarian food assistance were not sustained at high levels during the June to August lean season. Now, due to the consistent delivery of humanitarian food assistance through August and the anticipated availability of a relatively favorable green meher harvest in September, FEWS NET can confidently state that the risk of more extreme outcomes in these areas of Ethiopia has become low. The start of the green meher harvest, coupled with a seasonal peak in the availability of foods mostly vegetables following a favorable rainy season, will most likely prevent a sharp increase in mortality over the medium-term.
In the pastoral south and southeast, displaced and destitute households remain of highest concern as they remain heavily reliant on food assistance amid the loss of their livelihoods from prior drought. In contrast, livestock-owning households are expected to access milk in September, though the degree of improvement in food security from seasonal milk availability will be below-normal due to low herd sizes. While herd sizes are expected to continue to recover from the 2020 to 2023 drought in late 2024 due to good livestock conceptions earlier this year, this trajectory is then expected to somewhat stall in early 2025 due to the effects of the anticipated below-average October to December deyr/hageya season, as pasture regeneration is expected to be minimal.
Economic reforms introduced in late July by the Ethiopian government as part of the terms of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank financing package include floating the ETB. This resulted in an immediate depreciation of the currency. By late August, the ETB had depreciated by around 85 percent on the official market, with a value of around 105 ETB/USD. Trade of currency on the parallel market has nearly ceased. The government has introduced subsidies on food, essential goods, and fuel; increased civil servant salaries; and enhanced social support measures to cushion the impact of currency depreciation and limit price increases. Ethiopia’s heavy reliance on domestically produced foods also moderates the effect of currency depreciation on rising prices. In addition, the government has placed guards and policemen around markets to discourage hoarding and price speculation. As of mid-August, officials had already forcibly closed over 3,000 stores accused of hoarding goods and confiscated over 200,000 gallons of cooking oil that sellers were allegedly selling at high prices.
Preliminary price data collected in August suggest most staple food prices did not rise as quickly or as sharply as previously anticipated in the immediate aftermath of the floating of the ETB, especially in source markets for domestically produced food items. Staple cereal prices have largely remained stable. This may reflect a combination of the availability of inventory that traders had purchased previously at lower prices; government measures to curb the degree of price increases; and the reliance on domestically produced crops. However, the depreciation of the ETB has still led to significant price increases among imported goods, including food. Cooking oil prices, for example, have increased by up to 40 percent compared to the period before the floating of the ETB. In the near-to-medium term, the severity of ETB depreciation – coupled with the impact of insecurity on agricultural production, trade flows, and market supply – is still expected to lead to moderate price increases for many other goods.
Rainfall has been favorable across most of the country since early 2024, but heavy and prolonged rainfall in some areas has led to negative impacts in multiple regions since July. Gambella, Afar, Amhara, Somali, Oromia, and South Ethiopia regions have all experienced flooding, which has caused deaths and casualties, displaced households, and destroyed and/or damaged cropland. South and Southwest Ethiopia regions experienced landslides that killed at least 200 people and displaced over 400 as of mid-August, according to the federal and regional DRMC. In Amhara, flooding, snow, hailstorms, and landslides killed an estimated eight people, damaged nearly 7,775 hectares of cropland, and affected/displaced 53,574 people. In Tigray, according to the regional DRMC, more than 34,000 people are impacted by flooding, and 60 to 100 percent of nearly 2,400 hectares of cropland was damaged; landslides and hailstorms have also been reported and 56 people have died overall. The impacts of flooding at the end of July in Afar are also lingering, with persisting standing water likely contributing to a reported increase in malaria cases and increased risk of waterborne disease.
Nationally, 2024 meher production is expected to be near average due to favorable production in the west, but below-average production is expected in some localized areas. The planting of short-maturing meher crops was timely in most parts of Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia, where up to 90 percent of the average area cultivated was already planted as of the end of August, according to regional governments. Most meher crops are currently at the growing and vegetative stages. However, in southern regions, planting of meher crops was delayed by two to three weeks due to heavy rainfall that delayed belg harvesting activities. Additionally, long-cycle meher crop losses have occurred in some areas of Tigray, Central Rift Valley, eastern Oromia, and southern regions due to low input utilization, water logging, flooding, and landslides, as well as in some parts of Amhara and Oromia due to conflict-related disruptions to agricultural activities.
The armed conflict between the Ethiopian National Defense Force and FANO militia in Amhara Region continued in August. Transportation is disrupted due to FANO’s road restrictions, hampering trade into and out of the region and affecting the supply of food and non-food commodities on local markets. In Tigray, disputes between TPLF members over the regional administrative directives and management increased fears of insecurity. The sporadic conflict between ENDF and OLF-Shene in Wollega, Guji, West Guji, and parts of central Oromia resulted in high social tension, restricted trade, displacements, and property damage. According to EDRMC, 114 shelters were burnt, and 343 people were displaced from Dera woreda of North Shewa Zone of Oromia.
According to the Food Cluster, humanitarians reached 4.5 million people in July: nearly 15 percent less than in June, but 11 percent more than in May. The largest share of assistance deliveries in July were to Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and Somali regions. Distributions decreased from June to July across all regions, except for Afar and Tigray which continue to be prioritized. In Afar, over 245,000 people were reached in July, but with a decreased ration size (12.5 kg, down from 15 kg) in EDRMC operational woredas due to funding limitations. PSNP resource transfer was completed in July for the public work beneficiaries except in some areas of Oromia where there was late distribution in August.
Proxy data suggest levels of acute malnutrition remain elevated during the lean season. According to the Nutrition Cluster, the number of children admitted to therapeutic feeding program (TFP) centers in June was 11 percent higher than in May and over 25 percent higher than the five-year average. The highest number of TFP admissions in June occurred in Oromia (42 percent), former SNNP (20 percent), Amhara (14 percent), and Somali (13 percent) regions. SMART surveys were completed in July and August in Tigray and Afar regions. As of late August, the results from these surveys are still under review and will be available in the coming months.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Ethiopia Key Message Update August 2024: Food assistance needs peak in August in advance of the meher harvest, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.