Early cessation of Kiremt may reduce yields.

• Due to the below-normal February to May rains in 2012, the number of people who require emergency assistance through the end of the calendar year has increased from the humanitarian requirement document (HRD) figures released in February 2012. The regions noted with the highest increases are Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Region (SNNPR), Amhara, Somali, and Oromia, in order of the expected increase in the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance.

• The food security situation from October to December is expected to improve in the southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas due to seasonal changes as a result of the anticipated good rains from October to December 2012. The likely development of an El Niño would positively affect the performance of this season. However, the level of needs for humanitarian food assistance will remain high as a result of the effects of repeated droughts since 2010.

• The anticipated early cessation of the June to September Kiremt rains will adversely affect the performance of Meher crops. Inadequate rainfall during the February to May Belg season reduced the planting of long-cycle, high-yielding crops—maize, sorghum, and millet—which cover around 40 percent of national, annual cereal production. Many farms shifted to lower-yielding, short-maturing varieties across the country including in the western, surplus-producing areas. However, the eastern Meher marginal production areas will be the most affected in terms of food security impacts. 

• Staple prices are already at elevated levels, and further increases are expected through September 2012 following typical seasonal trends. Given the anticipated reduction in production for this year’s Meher harvest starting in October, staple prices are unlikely to show a significant decline in October after the harvest begins.

No Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 1) will be evident from July to December 2012 in the surplus-producing, western parts of the country. However, close monitoring of the development of the agricultural production will be crucial given the unusual rainfall deficit so far during the June to September Kiremt rains (Figure 4). Productivity in these parts of the country has a significant impact on national market supply and prices in the rest of the country although acute food insecurity is less likely. On the other hand, the poorest households in the eastern half of the country will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity until the end of the year (Figures 2 and 3).

The onset of the 2012 June to September Kiremt rains was nearly on time. However, the rains were erratic and below normal in most of the Kiremt-receiving areas. Following the poor planting and performance of the long-cycle crops during the below-normal February to May Belg season, the demand for short-maturing seed varieties was high in the eastern Meher marginal production areas as households tried to replant or plant in June and July.

The most likely scenario for July through December 2012 is based on the following assumptions:

• The June to September Kiremt/Karma/Karan rains are expected to be near-normal, but the rains may cease earlier than usual in the eastern parts of the country.
• Unseasonal rains may occur in October and November in most Meher growing areas, damaging mature crops.
• The October to December secondary Deyr/Hageya rains in the southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas is likely be normal to above-normal given the effects of the developing El Niño.
• The 2012 Belg harvest has been delayed from June until August. The harvest is likely to be much below normal and in some areas a complete failure due to the late start and the overall poor performance of the February to May Belg rains in the northeastern highlands, parts of Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR), and eastern Oromia.
• In the eastern Meher marginal production areas, the Meher harvest is expected to be below normal as a result of the poor planting of long-cycle, high-yielding crops during the Belg season, the shortage of short-maturing seeds, the anticipated early cessation of the Kiremt rains, and unseasonable rains damaging mature crops in October and November.
• While the distribution of emergency food aid is expected in August and September, distribution will be curtailed from October to December as access to food for the majority of households improves due to the new harvest.
• As a result of repeated poor production of sweet potatoes in SNNPR since 2011, continued shortages of sweet potato cuttings will limit planted area from October to November 2012.
• In the southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas, cattle births are expected to peak in August following good conceptions in November and December 2011. Small stock births are expected to concentrate in October and November following normal conceptions in April 2012 when there was enhanced rainfall. Milk availability across most southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral zones will thus improve from September onwards.
• Livestock demand from the Hawd and other parts of Somali region will increase in July for Ramadan exports through the ports in northern Somalia and Djibouti and again in September and October for exports for the Hajj season. No significant disruptions to the trade are anticipated. Very poor households are unlikely to significantly benefit from the near average to above average livestock prices because of low total livestock holdings.
• Despite recent rains in many pastoral areas having refilled some surface water points, heightened water shortages for human and livestock use may appear as early as the middle of July. Areas of particular concern for potential water shortages include parts of Warder and Korahe zones and the southern areas of Afder and Liben zones in Somali region, and Erebti, Bidu, Elidaar and Kori woredas in Afar region. These problems are expected to be abated by the Deyr rains by mid-October in southern and southeastern areas, but water shortages may be present in northern Somali region and Afar earlier than usual as the Karma/Karan rains end early.
• Staple food prices remain high (Figure 6). Staple food prices are likely to increase along usual seasonal patterns through September. However, only a slight decline or no change in price at all is likely after the start of the Meher harvest in October due to the expectation of below average yields.

Eastern Meher marginal producing areas

The Belg rains this year were very poor. The onset was late by four to eight weeks and ceased early by two weeks. Although the rainfall amounts were fairly normal for about three to four weeks following the late start of the season, the overall performance was sporadic, unevenly distributed, and well below average. May and June were dominated by long dry spells. In some cases, virtually no precipitation occurred in the second half of May. Land preparation, the timeliness of Belg planting, the area planted with Belg crops, and the development of crops were all impacted by the poor season. As per the recent multi-agency seasonal assessment, in Amhara region, for example, total area covered with Belg crops declined by about 27 percent compared to a typical year. North Shewa, one of the three Belg producing zones in Amhara region, had an estimated 51 percent decline in planted area. Inadequate moisture during the season and early cessation of the rains caused serious water stress on crops including long-cycle crops (Figure 7). Between now and the delayed Belg harvest in August, the matured crops face high risk of damage by unfavorable weather such as heavy rainfall or hail storms. Consequently, a poor Belg harvest is anticipated for the second year in a row and the fourth time in the last five years. Many localities in East and West Hararghe, Arsi, West Arsi, and North Shewa zones of Oromia, and parts of North Shewa and North Wello in Amhara are likely to obtain little or no Belg harvest this year (Figure 5).

Following the delayed Belg harvest, many of the Belg fields cannot immediately be used for Meher planting. In some bimodal areas, the planting window for Meher cereal will be closed by the time the Belg crops are harvested. The anticipated early cessation of the Kiremt will also have an effect on the planting of the late Meher crops that are usually planted in late August or early September such as pulses including lentils and chickpeas.

Planting and development of long-cycle, high-yielding Meher crops have been limited by inadequate soil moisture since May. These crops are a near total failure in many lowland and mid-altitude areas in central and eastern Oromia including areas of North Shewa, East Shewa, East and West Hararghe, and Arsi and West Arsi zones. Farmers who attempt to substitute low-yielding, short-cycle Meher crops for failed Belg crops are facing shortages of short-cycle seeds.

Shortages of pasture, water, and poor livestock conditions were widely reported, primarily in lowland areas from January to March. The situation showed some improvement following the onset of the Belg rains at the end of March and provided considerable relief for many areas. However, there are isolated pockets in lowland areas of East and West Hararghe, Arsi, West Arsi, and North Shewa in Oromia and North Gondar, North Shewa, and North Wello in Amhara where pasture and water availability remains poor. Livestock body conditions in these areas remain relatively poor. Water shortages persist in low-lying areas of Golo Oda, Kumbi, Midhega Tolla, Oda Bultum, Chinaksen, and Gursum of East Hararghe zone and Burka Dimtu, Boke, Hawi Gudina, Darolebu, and Miesso of West Hararghe. The rains so far have not brought about notable improvement as dry conditions persist despite some scattered Kiremt rains. Water and pasture availability will improve with the advancement of the Kiremt.

An overall improvement in food access is not expected until the Meher harvest starts in October. Staple prices are likely to increase as the ongoing lean season progresses following usual seasonal trends through September. Most households in the eastern marginal Meher production areas will be heavily reliant on market purchases through October. The volume of Meher harvest this year could be well below-average in these parts of the country if the Kiremt rains cease early. However, the expected harvest would still sustain households at least up until December.

Both due to the extended lean season that has resulted from the late Belg harvest this year and due to the expected low Belg harvest or loss of harvest, July and August will be much more stressful in terms of food security in the Belg-dominant areas. The upcoming Belg harvest in August is unlikely to have a meaningful impact, especially for the poor and very poor households. Consequently, Belg growing areas in the northeastern highlands are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the outlook period and possibly through the next Belg harvest in 2013. Humanitarian assistance is expected to be provided through December. The poor and very poor households in many of the Meher-dominant areas are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and are expected to remain the same through the end of the year. Poor households in these areas have limited capacity to cover their food needs during the July to September lean season. Given the current poor prospect for the Meher harvest compounded by high staple prices, household food security is less likely to improve among these households.

Zones such as Wag Himra of Amhara and East and West Hararghe zones of Oromia are currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The 2011 Meher harvests in these zones were very poor. The 2012 Belg harvest in Belg benefiting areas of East and West Hararghe zones is a near total failure. Despite the below average Meher harvest in October, East and West Hararghe zones are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to alternative income options from sale of coffee and chat and sales of small stock. However, the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) level of food insecurity is likely to persist in Wag Himra. Much of Wag Himra zone is located in the Northeast Woyna Dega Mixed Cereal (NMC) Livelihood Zone (LZ) which also encompasses parts of North Wollo and parts of South Gondar. Purchases of maize and millet typically peak in July and August among the poor households. Local or migratory labor, primarily weeding in August, is the most important source of income for these households from July to December. Poor households normally cover 30 percent of their annual food requirements from food aid. This year, local labor for weeding will be reduced due to poor agricultural conditions, so only migratory labor will remain an option. Unlike middle and better-off households which have assets such as livestock, poor households in NMC will have few coping strategies available to offset their harvest losses and fund market purchases of food. As such, this livelihood zone is expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from July to December with only limited improvements following the start of the Meher harvest in October.

Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR)

This region has experienced three consecutive poor seasons of agricultural production due to poor seasonal rains. The Belg harvest in June and July 2011 was a total failure while the October to December Meher harvest was way below average. The poor Sapie rains between December 2011 and January 2012 affected the March to May sweet potato harvest that normally is an important bridge food during the March to May lean season. The 2012 February to May Belg rains were up to eight weeks late and erratic. They were followed by a long dry spell in May. This has disrupted land preparation and planting for both Belg and long-cycle Meher crops. The total land covered with Belg crops was estimated to be only 13 to 30 percent of normal. The late planting of Belg crops delayed the green maize harvest and the haricot bean harvest from its usual June to July timeframe until August or September. Further production losses of Belg crops are expected during the Kiremt season as a result of further weather-related shocks. The early cessation of the rains will lead to moisture stress for some crops, while unseasonal rains expected in the months of October and November may damage any standing crops. These phenomena are likely given the developing El Niño according to recent National Meteorology Agency (NMA) analysis. Pasture and water availability have also been below normal. Thus, livestock body conditions have deteriorated, and milk production is below normal.

Currently, staple prices are already at elevated levels in most markets across the region. Market supply is abnormally low due to the absence of local Belg production including sweet potatoes and constrained supplies of enset. Maize, the most widely consumed staple, is currently coming from wholesalers based in Addis Ababa. From January 2012 and June 2012, the zonal average prices of maize and sweet potatoes in Wolayita zone increased 26 and 56 percent, respectively.  The prices of cereals are likely to continue increasing as the July to September national lean season peaks, further deteriorating the purchasing power of the poor households. A normal decline in cereal price in the October to December period is unlikely as a result of the anticipated early withdrawal of Kiremt rains and unseasonal rains creating pressure on market supplies. However, the abnormal wetness from the unseasonal rains in October and November should facilitate the planting of sweet potatoes. As the sweet potato cuttings shortages will likely persist, the total planted area for sweet potatoes would remain below average.

The poor recent harvests have lowered agricultural labor wage rates. Increased migration to towns in search of casual labor is being reported, but urban, casual wage labor rates are also below rates over the last two years. However, livestock prices are generally stable or slightly higher than last year due to continued demand at the main regional livestock markets in Wonago in Gedeo zone, Turmi in South Omo zone, Karati in Konso zone, Wacha in Maji zone, Boditi in Wolayita zone, and for onward trade to Addis Ababa for both domestic and export consumers. Livestock prices are expected to further increase due to high demand in September and October for the Ethiopian New Year (Enkutatash) and Meskel holidays. Poor households have very low livestock holdings though and will not be the primary beneficiaries of improving livestock prices. Water and pasture availability is expected to be normal over the course of the Kirmet season and due to the predicted unseasonable rains from October to November, which will mitigate some of the effects of the dry season.

Food aid covers up to 30 percent of annual household food requirements in some livelihood zones in this region including Sidama Maize Belt (SMB) and Southern Special Woredas Lowlands Cereals (LCE) livelihood zones. The main sources of food for the poor and very poor households in a typical year for July to December are own production and market purchases. Green maize and haricot beans are typically consumed from June to September, other Belg crops from July to October, Meher crops from October to December, and enset throughout the year. This year, all of these crops are delayed and likely to be well below average. Already, increasing admissions to Outpatient Therapeutic Programs (OTPs) and Stabilization Centers (SCs) continued to be reported in 27 woredas out of nearly 80 woredas which are already characterized as chronically food insecure and targeted for the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). Poor households are reported to be employing coping strategies including increased firewood sales, collection and sale of wild grasses as fodder, migration to urban areas in search of casual labor, and reducing the frequency of meals. Areas of a particular concern include the major root crop dependent zones of Wolayita, Kembata Tembaro, Gamo Gofa, and Hadiya, Sidama, and the major Belg-cropping special woredas in Segen zone.

Poor households in the Meher-dependent areas of Alaba special woreda and Gurague and Silite zones are also of high concern as increasing admissions of acutely malnourished children are being reported. Increased admissions are likely to continue until the green harvest starts in September. Crop sales from September to December and coffee labor from October to December are the major sources of income for these households. The effects of poor Belg rains on coffee production in the major coffee producing zones of Sidama and Gedeo is likely to reduce the income of poor households who heavily rely on coffee labor from October to December. These sources of food and income will be therefore highly reduced. As no or little assistance is expected from October to December, the poor and very poor households will continue facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity through December.

Southern zones of Somali Region and the lowlands of Oromia and SNNPR

The March to May Gu/Genna/Belg rains started close to on-time in many areas. Rainfall totals were near average in some areas. There were instances of flooding along the Wabi Shabelle and Fafan/Jerrer rivers. Overall rainfall in the southern pastoral areas was erratic with dry spells during the season and poor distribution to some areas. Nonetheless, rainfall helped refill surface water points and greatly improved pasture conditions across many of the pastoral areas. There were some pockets of dry areas in Warder zone. Also, in areas around Dolo Ado in Liben zone and Dolo Bay in Afder zone along the Kenyan and Somalia borders, there was hardly any rain and conditions remained unusually dry. Rainfall and pastoral conditions were also relatively poor in South Omo zone in SNNPR.

As pasture and water recovered, livestock conditions improved seasonally. Livestock prices are much more favorable than last year for pastoralists and agropastoralists (Figure 8). Major outbreaks of contagious livestock diseases have not been reported. Unfortunately, many livestock did not give birth during the recent March to May Gu/Genna. This meant that milk availability has been very constrained as very few milking females of any species were available. Conceptions by cattle, sheep, and goats tended to occur in the later part of the previous October to December Deyr/Hageya rains. As the level of conceptions was relatively high and conditions have remained sufficient to protect livestock health, livestock births are expected to occur, unusually, during the dry period starting in August for cattle and earlier for sheep and goats. While the recent rains have improved conditions for livestock, cropping conditions for agropastoralists and the riverine populations have not recovered to the same extent. Opportunistic planting on rainfed lands has been limited, and dry spells have adversely affected crops. Floods also adversely affected some planted crops.

During the dry season from July to September, pastoral households typically rely most heavily on purchased food. They also may consume some relief food, some wild foods, and in the latter half of the period, milk. This year, camel and cow milk will be available during the dry season. If livestock keep access to water and households stay with their livestock, milk access and availability is expected to improve in August, especially for households that have cattle. Agropastoral and riverine households and pastoral dropouts are expected to have poor access to food from July to September as the Gu/Genna rains were generally not very good for agricultural production except in Borena and Guji zones where the rains performed relatively better. Some agropastoralists will be able to depend on their livestock, but pastoral dropouts will have limited ability to purchase food during the dry season except through limited laboring activities. However, the later harvest in riverine areas expected in August or September may contribute both a source of food and a source of income for labor for some households. Outside of riverine areas, the water situation will deteriorate from July to September with particular areas of concern in southern Afder and Liben and pocket areas of Warder and Korahe where the rains were less well distributed. From July to September, most pastoral and agropastoral areas will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) but only due to the expected resumption of humanitarian assistance in August.

As milk availability increases with additional livestock births starting in August, conditions will begin to improve. From October to December, the expected normal to above normal Deyr/Hageya rains will improve both pasture and water availability. Milk availability is expected to be much higher than last year as livestock births are recovering. Also, demand for livestock, both for domestic consumption and for Hajj exports in September and October will bring income to pastoralists and agropastoralists with saleable animals. Both the improved sources of income and of food will benefit pastoralists. From October to December, pastoralists, agropastoralists, and riverine populations will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), but only due to the expected continuation of humanitarian assistance. This means that they will be accessing minimally adequate quantities of food, but they will still be drawing down livelihood assets, using other coping mechanisms, or depending upon humanitarian assistance to meet their food needs. Humanitarian assistance is expected to be present and to remain a major source of food and income in these areas from October to December. Southern areas of Liben and Afder will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October to December as there will be less milk in these areas, and additional resources will have been spent to cover water purchases or to enable water collection or migration to water points during the dry season in these areas.

Afar and Northern Somali Region

Following the below-normal mid-July to mid-September 2011 Karma/Karan rains, the mid-March to May Sugum/Gu rains in the current year performed poorly in most parts of Afar and in Shinile zone of Somali region. Given the extended dry period since September 2011, the amount of rainfall received over the course of the mid-March to May Sugum/Gu season was too low to adequately recharge surface water and improve pasture in Afar. Ellas and ponds have not been fully recharged, especially in the chronically water-deficit areas in the northeastern parts of the region. According to the recent multi-agency assessment results, unusual livestock movements were reported within and across the region during the wet Karma season. Pastoralists were forced to move long distances in search of water and pasture to the neighboring highlands of Tigray and Amhara. July is normally the time when livestock return to their wet season grazing lands. However, the livestock herds which migrated from the northern parts of the region have not yet returned to their wet season grazing lands. Shortages of pasture and water have affected livestock body conditions, especially of cattle and sheep. Milk production is poor for camels and goats while cow milk is not available at all. However, livestock prices have not fallen due to continued demand within the country and abroad. Meat prices remain above average nationwide. Prices of staple cereals are also increasing in the northern pastoral and agropastoral areas though at a lesser rate compared to increasing livestock prices. Ongoing food aid distributions may be helping hold staple food prices lower than they would otherwise be. The livestock to cereal terms of trade are favorable for pastoral households. However, poor households whose limited livestock holdings have been depleted due to repeated poor seasonal rains will remain disadvantaged despite the good terms of trade. As the September to mid-March Jilaal dry season progresses, increased sales of livestock will further erode livelihood assets for poor households.

Crop production in the agropastoral areas was also affected by the poor mid-March to May Sugum rains and are no longer expecting a harvest. The Targeted Supplementary Feeding (TSF) program in nearly 50 percent of the woredas in Afar has contributed to stabilizing the nutrition situation among children under five years old. The recent seasonal needs assessment suggests an increased number of people will need assistance through December 2012. The poor are Stressed or in Crisis (IPC Phases 2 and 3, respectively) in Afar. Areas with expected extended water problems are likely to continue facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity, but the poor households in the rest of the region will remain Stressed (IPC phase 2) despite seasonal improvements which are likely to happen during the current July to September Karma rains. Their livestock herds are still recovering from previous years of drought.

Gu rains were inadequate to improve pastoral resources and to enhance agricultural productivity in the agropastoral areas in northern zones of Somali region. In this area, sorghum and other crops are typically planted during the Gu rains then they are harvested in November and December after the Karma/Karan rains have ended. No rains had been received since the second half of April 2012 in Shinile zone until late July, and crops were wilting due to moisture stress. The dry period also had above average temperatures. The availability of pasture and water is very poor in Shinile zone. Even in late July, only pocket areas of Shinile zone in Dembel, Ayisha, Erer, Hadagalle, Afdem, and Miso districts had received any Karan rains. Water trucking is underway, and additional interventions have been requested until the current Karan rains recharge water points. Cattle and camel have migrated to Jijiga, adjacent woredas of Oromia, Afar region, and northeastern Somalia. Milk production is reported to be very low as a result of reduced calving due to poor conditions in 2011. Access to milk is very limited among the poor households due to limited supply and high prices for milk on markets. Although the onset of the March to May Gu rains was normal in Jijiga zone, the rains ceased by mid-May which was two weeks earlier than normal. The overall performance was erratic and uneven.

The mid-July to mid-September Karma/Karan rains started on time in areas outside of Shinile zone. However, the amount and distribution has been below-normal to date. Despite the expected seasonal changes over the current Karan season, food insecurity in Shinile and Jijiga is unlikely to show noticeable change between now and December. Staple prices are unlikely to decrease from October following the typical pattern. Livestock production and productivity remain under stress, limiting milk availability for household consumption. Income from sales of livestock will significantly decline in October and November due to poor body conditions despite high demand for livestock in much of Ethiopia. No harvest is expected in the agropastoral areas from November to December due to extended periods of dryness. An increase in humanitarian assistance is expected for the July to December period, starting in August. With very limited ability to earn extra income for market purchases, poor households will continue facing Crisis (IPC phase 3) levels of food insecurity through December.

Table 1: Less likely events over the next six months that could change the above scenarios