Food consumption increased in much of the country following an above-average Meher harvest

• Total 2013 Meher cereal, pulse, and oilseed production is forecast to be about 25.4 million metric tons, a 10 percent increase above last year. The increase, mainly attributed to the normal and above normal June to September Kiremt rains, is expected to stabilize food security in most parts the country to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through March. During this time, most households will rely on their own production. Some households will continue to purchase food but have improved access due to a slight decline in staple food prices.
• However, some areas experienced below average Kiremt rainfall or other localized hazards such as flooding, resulting in a below average Meher harvest. These areas will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from January to March and deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from April to June. Affected regions include lowland areas of East and West Hararghe Zone in Oromia, the Tekeze River catchment in northern Amhara and southern Tigray, the northeastern highlands in eastern Tigray and Amhara, and a few areas in Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR).
• In pastoral and agropastoral areas, despite normal to above-normal recent rainy seasons in many areas, recovery of herd sizes and purchasing power remains slow. Poor households are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in most areas through at least June.

Current Situation

• The Central Statistical Agency (CSA) estimates 25.4 million metric tons (MMT) of cereals, pulses, and oilseeds are likely to be harvested during the 2013 Meher season. This is 10 percent over the 2012 Meher harvest and 26 percent above the five-year average (Figure 1). The above-average Meher harvest not only benefitted grain surplus-producing central and western parts of the country but also in some chronically food-insecure, eastern parts of Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia Regions. In these regions, total grain production was 12, six, and 10 percent higher than last year, respectively. The harvest was especially above average across most of SNNPR.
• Late, unseasonable rains in October and November have also contributed to improved production of late-planted crops, particularly in northwestern and eastern highland areas of Amhara and Tigray and eastern highlands of Oromia and SNNPR.
• With the harvest proceeding, the prices for staple foods are seasonally declining, particularly in Meher-producing highland areas in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and SNNPR. Prices are also declining in western parts of the country. In December 2013, annual food price inflation declined to 5.8 percent from 6.8 percent in November. Many staple food prices fell. Between October and December, maize prices fell 23 percent in Dire Dawa in eastern Ethiopia, 30 percent in Dese in the northeastern highlands of Amhara, 9 percent in Sodo in Wolayita Zone in SNNPR, and 22 percent in Bahir Dar in a maize surplus-producing area of central Amhara. However, despite the recent falls, prices remain well above prices in recent years, partially due to high underlying inflation and partially due to continued high demand for food from markets in many parts of the country. For example, maize in Bahir Dar in December cost 18, 36, and 68 percent more than last year, two years ago, and the five-year average, respectively.
• Following improved household level consumption with the harvest, nutrition improved in some parts of the country. November outpatient therapeutic program (OTP) admissions numbers were less than in August 2013 and the same period last year in Amhara and SNNPR.
• However, Belg-dominant areas of North and South Wollo Zones in Amhara Region had a well below average 2013 Belg harvest in June/July. They remain acutely food insecure at Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
• Following average to above average total October to December Deyr/Hageya rainfall in southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas of Oromia and Somali Regions, pasture and water availability increased. With these resources available, livestock body conditions and productivity improved.
• In agropastoral and riverine areas of Somali Region, the crop performance was well below average due to moisture stress as a result of dry spells during the rains and some natural hazards including flooding along the Wabi Shabelle, Genale, Dawa, and Web Rivers.
• Normal and above normal July to September Karma/Karan rains improved pasture, browse, and water availability in the western and southern parts of Afar and most parts of Fafan and Sitti Zones in Somali Region. However, due to the poor distribution and below average amount of Karma rains in northeastern parts of Afar Region, livestock production and productivity remains below normal. These areas remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Assumptions

From January to June 2014, the projected food security outcomes are based on the following key assumptions:

• Based on the preliminary climatic forecast from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) and their interpretation of other, international forecasts, the February to April Belg and March to May Gu/Genna/Sugum rainy seasons are assumed to be near normal in terms of total rainfall. However, below average total rainfall is expected in northeastern parts of Amhara, Tigray, and Afar Regions.
• As supplies from the Meher harvest continue to enter markets through February, staple food prices are expected to show a slight decline from January to March, but they will increase from April onwards, following their typical, seasonal pattern. However, building on top of several years of moderate inflation, prices will be well above their five-year averages and likely well above last year.
• Livestock prices are assumed to be relatively stable from January to March and increasing slightly afterwards as both domestic, primarily urban demand and export demand seasonally increase.
• The Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), the government’s cash- and food-transfer program for 6.89 million chronically food insecure people, is expected to take place as usual in the receiving areas from January to June 2014, starting as usual with cash for days worked in the first several months, then switching to payment-in-kind with food later.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

In the western and central surplus-producing areas in Tigray, Amhara, Beninshangul-Gumuz, Gambella, and central and western Oromia, the above average Meher harvest seasonally increased food consumption. Income earned from harvest labor was normal to above normal in most areas. These areas are expected to remain at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through at least June 2014 with labor, agricultural, and other seasonal activities expected to continue normally through June or later.

In highland areas of eastern Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia Regions, household stocks from the October to January Meher harvest, along with income earned from crop sales and harvest labor, will enable households to meet their food and nonfood needs from January to March 2014. They will be at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from January to March 2014.  However, from April to June, poor and very poor households will exhaust their own stocks and become more dependent on the markets. With the anticipated staple price increases and sources of  income such as casual labor having not risen as quickly as staple foods, households will not be able to address their nonfood essentials and therefore, these areas will fall into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from April to June and likely after that.

Lowland areas of East and West Hararghe Zone in eastern Oromia Region, the Tekeze River catchment in Amhara and Tigray Regions, northeastern parts of Tigray Region, and a few areas in SNNPR experienced reduced Meher harvests. Poor and very poor households in these area will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through March 2014 as below average production and crop sales will lead to more food purchases than usual for the post-harvest period. During the March to June lean season progresses, households will have exhausted food stocks and purchase all of their food from markets. With the anticipated price increases, they will not have enough income from seasonal sources such as self-employment to cope with the anticipated staple food price increases. Households will fall into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from April to June and likely after that.

In pastoral areas, the relatively good July to September Karan/Karma and October to December Deyr/Hageya rains improved pasture, browse, and water availability, resulting in improved livestock body conditions and milk availability. Assuming normal performance of the upcoming rainy seasons, continued access to pasture, browse, and water would further increase livestock production, thus helping slowly increase herd sizes, purchasing power, and eventually food security. Unlike other parts of the country, staple food prices have been increasing since October instead of decreasing. Even if there is a slight decline in staple food prices in January and February, by April, prices are likely to rise again as supplies are likely to remain limited. The sparse population distribution makes trade difficult and expensive, so prices are likely to increase further. Poor households have some income from self-employment, charcoal production, and other sources, but these have not kept up with the increasing prices. Despite some recent improvement in herd sizes, poor households will still not be able to address their essential nonfood needs. Most households in pastoral areas will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, in northeastern pastoral areas in Afar Region, following below average Karma rains last year and the expected below average March to April Sugum rains, households will need to increase their livestock sales beyond a sustainable level in order to purchase food. This area will continue to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through at least June 2014.

Eastern, marginal Meher- and Belg-producing areas in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia

Current Situation

Despite an above-average Meher harvest in much of the country, moisture stress due to prolonged dry spells and early withdrawal of Kiremt rains had affected planting and proper growth of planted crops. Unseasonal rains in the month of October and November supplemented moisture and improved pasture, but not all areas benefits. In some areas, earlier, drier conditions had already damaged crops. The affected areas are mainly in northeastern parts of Tigray, in the Tekeze River catchment in Tigray and Amhara Regions, and in lowland areas of East and West Hararghe Zones in eastern Oromia Region. The dry spells and late onset of the rains resulted in shifting of planting high-yielding long-cycle crops to low yielding short-cycle crops and also affected the yield and final production. Moreover, floods, hail, and landslides occurred in many areas in both highland and midland areas. Flooding was notably bad in Boset and Fentale Woredas of East Shewa Zone and landslide in North Shoa of Oromia Region, where the flood waters damaged planted crops and caused livestock deaths.  

Livestock conditions have been normal throughout eastern marginal Meher- and Belg-producing areas of Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia Regions. The overall good performance of the Kiremt rains has favored the supply of pasture and water for the livestock in most places. In addition, availability of Meher crop residue in many places improved supply of livestock feed and improves livestock body conditions. However, shortage of pasture was reported in lowland areas of East and West Hararghe Zones of Oromia Region due to below average total June to September Kiremt rains. No major livestock disease outbreaks have been reported.

Following the improved Meher harvest, staple food supply to the market improved and prices are generally stable and started showing a slight decline, ranging from three to five percent from October to December 2013. However, prices are still higher than last year. For instance, in East and West Hararghe Zones of Oromia Region, the price of sorghum has increased by about 20 to 40 percent over the past year. Market prices for income sources also have increased over the past year but not as much as staple foods. Labor wage rates in different parts of Tigray and Amhara Region increased from 10 to 20 percent over last year. Prices for goats and sheep have been mostly stable over the last several months, but they are higher than last year. However, livestock price increases are less than those of staple foods, leading to a decline in livestock to grain terms of trade.

The food access for the poor and very poor households from own production, and livestock products and labor employment has improved. The observed decline in staple food prices also enhanced households purchasing power. Therefore, most households are at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) with the exception of households in Tekeze catchment areas of Tigray and Amhara Regions, northeastern parts of Tigray, and lowland areas of East and West Hararghe Zones of Oromia Region that are currently in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) The predominantly Belg-growing areas of Amhara Region continue to be under Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Assumptions

No additional assumptions have been made other than the national assumptions made above.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

The anticipated stability on market price until March will also help households continue to address their consumption needs. PSNP transfers are expected to be normal between January to June. The average Meher production obtained in eastern highland areas of Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia Regions will enable households to address their food and nonfood needs from their own production and income from crop sale at least to March 2014.

The below average Meher production in Tekeze River catchment in Amhara and Tigray Regions, eastern Tigray and lowland areas of East and West Hararghe in Oromia Region will limit households to address only their minimal food needs until March, and they will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Poor and very poor households’ access to food is likely to decline from April as households food stocks are depleted. At the same time, staple food prices will rise. Households will sell livestock or their labor to cover some of the food expenses. As the rising expense of food means that households will have to forgo essential non-food expenditures, these households will move into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from April to June or after.

Poor and very poor households in Tekeze River catchment in Amhara and Tigray Regions, northeastern areas in Tigray, lowland areas of East and West Hararghe in Oromia Region, and Belg-dominant areas of North and South Wollo Zones will increasingly be unable to purchase adequate quantities of food and be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from April until June 2014.

Sweet potato- and Belg-producing areas of SNNPR

Current Situation

In June/July, Belg production was 11 percent above the five-year average. The average June to September Kiremt rains and the extended wet conditions in October and November 2013 were generally favorable for agricultural activities, pasture regeneration, and replenishment of water in most parts of SNNPR. In addition to rainfall, better extension advisories to practice row planting, and improved in input utilization helped increase yields. Total October to December Meher production of cereals, pulses, and oilseeds was about five percent more than last year and twelve percent higher than 2011 in SNNPR. The Meher sweet potatoes and other root crops that were planted fared well, but planted area was down as farmers planted grain instead of sweet potatoes in many instances, fearing additional sweet potato failures. Total Meher sweet potato production was below the five-year average, but it was above production levels of the last two years.

Staple food prices declined from October to December in most markets, following the usual, seasonal pattern as supplies from the Meher harvest entered the market and demand is low in the post-harvest period.. However, prices remained higher than last year and their five-year averages. For example, the December 2013 wholesale maize price in Hosanna was ETB 540 for 100 kilograms (kg). This was a 12 percent decline from November, but 13 higher than last year.

Conditions of livestock is were generally rated as normal due to adequate pasture and water availability. Therefore, livestock body conditions and their productivity improved. No major livestock disease outbreaks were reported in most areas.

Nutrition condition improved compared to previous months as well as same time last year. The rate of admissions of children to therapeutic feeding programs (TFP) is steadily declining in most areas. The rate of admission of malnourished children under five to TFP declined by 10 percent from October to November. The majority of poor and very poor households are currently able to meet their food and non-food needs, so they are classified as Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

However, Kiremt rains were more erratic in distribution and below average in amount in pocket lowland areas in Gamo Gofa and Segen Zones. This reduced Meher crop production in this area. Also, incidence of endemic livestock diseases increased in these zones, including anthrax, contagious caprine pleuro pneumonia (CCPP), lumpy skin disease (LSD), and food and mouth disease (FMD) mainly in lowland areas.

Excessive rainfall in July and August and unseasonable rains from October to mid-November caused flooding and landslides in many localized areas. Flooding occurred in Kochore and Wonago Woreda in Gedeo, Humbo Woreda in Wolayita Zone, Sankura, Silite, and Dalocha Woredas in Silte Zone,  and Shashego Woreda in Hadiya Zone. Hailstorms occurred in some parts of Sidama, Wolayita, Hadiya, and in Halaba Special Woreda. These events damaged crops in localized areas. As a result of the locally below-average harvest reducing income from crop sales, harvest labor, and reduced own production, in some parts of Wolayita Zone, Silte Zone, and Halaba Special Woreda, these areas are Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Plant disease has also had an impact on crops in some areas. Wolayita Coffee yields were about 6 percent less than usual in Sidama and Gedeo Zones due to coffee berry disease (CBD) and bacterial blight of coffee (BBC) outbreaks. Red pepper has also been affected by root rot in Lanfuro, Sankura, and Dalocha Woredas in Silte Zone and, Meskan, Mareko, and Sodo Woredas in Gurage Zone.

However, the crop most affected by plant disease this season was ginger. Bacterial wilt infestation of ginger has led to a ginger crop where 80 percent and in some places more of the ginger was affected and not able to be harvested or sold. This has dramatically reduced income from ginger sales and ginger-related labor in Hadero Tunto, Kacha Bira, and Tambaro Woredas in Kambata Tambaro and a few woredas in both Wolayita and Dawro Zones. These areas are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Assumptions

In addition to the assumptions at the national level, the projected food security outcomes for the sweet potato and Belg-growing areas of SNNPR are based on the following assumptions:

• Normal amounts of January/February Sapie rainfall and dew are anticipated.
• Opportunities for self-employments and agricultural labor are expected to be normal from January to June.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

In many areas, with stocks from the Meher harvest or ongoing income, most poor and very poor households are likely to meet their food and non-food essential needs and will remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through March 2014.The anticipated near normal Belg rainfall from February to June will enable normal seasonal agricultural activities, including agricultural labor opportunities. The upcoming Belg season is expected to be conducive for land preparation and planting of Belg crops. While planted area under sweet potatoes for the March to May harvest is currently low, those who planted are likely to have good yields due to the expected normal January/February Sapie rains and dew. With the decline in staple food prices from January to March, households will have adequate purchasing power. However, as the lean season progress starting April, staple food prices are likely to increase again and through June. This will reduced purchasing power.

The pasture, water, and crop residue currently availability are likely to maintain the currently good livestock body conditions until the next Belg rains start towards the end of February. The anticipated normal Belg rainfall performance will also continue to support adequate pasture and water conditions for maintaining livestock body conditions and productivity.

In the areas where there was reduced crop output in Sidama, Wolayita, Silte, and Halaba Special Woreda, poor households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until March. The majority of these households are likely to exhaust their own production by April. As the lean season progresses, the anticipated increase in staple food prices will outpace other sources of income. Households will forgo essential, non-food expenditures in favor of food. They will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through June.

In the areas where ginger-production is the most important source of income  in Hadero Tunto, Kacha Bira, and Tambaro Woredas in Kambata Tambaro Zone, households will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from April to June after they have exhausted stocks from their other crops and have few income-earning opportunities during the lean season.

Southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas

Current Situation

In most parts of southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas, the 2013 Deyr/Hageya rainfall totals were normal to above normal. However, in most areas, the onset of Deyr/Hageya rains was late, and secession one to two weeks early. Pasture, browse, and water availability increased with the rains and further improved livestock body conditions and productivity. Most water points were replenished, and water shortages are only observed except in a few, very dry areas. However, households are not yet well recovered from the effects of recurrent drought in previous years. Total milk production and herd sizes are still much lower than five to ten years ago. For example, camel milk production in Afder, Liben, and Dollo Zones in Somali Region is less than before. Herd sizes in 2013 in Afder and Dollo Zones are also smaller.

No major livestock disease outbreaks nor particularly abnormal livestock migration patterns have been reported. Cattle migrated from around Burtinle in the Hawd in Somalia to Galadi Woreda in Somali Region in search of pasture and water at the end of November. In addition, about 10,000 people with their livestock have been displaced by conflict in Moyale County in northern Kenya and are currently in Moyale Woreda in Ethiopia.

In agropastoral areas, delayed onset and early cessation caused moisture stress for some Deyr/Hageya crops. Excess rains in the watersheds in the highlands caused flooding on the Omo, Wabi Shabelle, Genale, Dawa, and Web Rivers. Floods damaged 6,000 hectares of cropland in Chareti, Musthil, Kelafo, Ferfir, Dolo Ado, and Dolo Bay Woredas in southern parts of Somali Region. However, in some riverine areas along the Wabi Shabelle, Genale, Dawa, Web, and Omo Rivers planting was timely and crops were at their normal vegetative stage in January.

The nutrition situation has improved since the onset of the Deyr/Hageya rains. For example, OTP admission in November 2013 in southern parts of Somali Region declined by 55 and 49 percent compared to the admissions in August 2013 and last year, respectively.

Staple food prices have increased since July 2013. The usual, seasonal decline in livestock demand since October has reduced livestock prices. For instance, compared to prices in November, a goat or sheep in December has declined by 14 and 10 percent in Kabridahar and Warder, respectively. The  rise in cereal prices has outpaced that of livestock prices leading to declining livestock to cereal Terms of Trade (ToT). Along with a low number of saleable animal, poor and very poor household continued to face difficulties accessing their basic non-food needs. Therefore, these remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Flooding of the Omo River in October damaged riverine farms and pasture in Dassench Woreda in South Omo Zone in SNNPR. Livestock were lost, and livestock body conditions have deteriorated. Some livestock have been migrated to Hamer, Gnangatom, and Turkana. Households are currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to the disruptions caused by the flooding.

Assumptions

In addition to the national assumptions, the projected food security outcomes for the southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas are based on the following assumption:

•  The anticipated normal March to May Gu/Genna rains will lead to a normal level of agricultural labor opportunities.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

The likely near normal March to May Gu/Genna rains will likely replenish pasture, browse, and water, further improving pasture and water availability through June 2014. Therefore, no serious decline in livestock body conditions and productivity is expected during the January/February dry season or afterwards. Furthermore, the improvement in livestock productivity and agricultural activities in agropastoral areas is expected to improve wage rates and gifts for poor and very poor households. The average harvest obtained in agropastoral lowland areas of Bale, Guji, and Borena Zones in Oromia Region is expected to fill household’s food needs through June 2014. The PSNP food/cash transfers and the expected improvement of staple food supply to the markets from nearby highland areas are expected to stabilize staple market prices, but near their current levels, well above previous year’s prices. However, as herd growth is slow, many households will still need to prioritize food purchase over essential non-food needs, and remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through June.

Dassench Woreda in South Omo Zone in SNNPR is expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 2) through June.

Northern pastoral and agropastoral areas

Current Situation

The near average July to September 2013 Karma/Karan rains in most parts of Awsi (formerly Zone 1), Gabi (Formerly Zone 3), and Khari ( formerly Zone 5) in southern Afar and in Sitti and Fafan Zones in northern Somali Region restored pasture, browse, and water availability. Livestock body conditions are generally normal, and milk availability has improved since the start of the rains.

Following poor distribution of the July to September Karma/Karan rains in a few spots, poor forage availability has been reported from Kilbati (formerly Zone 2) and Fenti (Formerly Zone 4) Zones in northern Afar Region and some pocket areas in Hadigala, Ayesha, and northern parts of Afedem Woredas in Sitti Zone in Somali Regions. Water shortages have been reported in Kori, Afdera, Teru, Bidu, Elidar, Erebti, Berhale, Yallo, and some part Dubti Woredas in Afar and some pocket areas in Ayesha, Hadigala, and Shinile Woredas in Sitti Zone in Somali. Water rationing is ongoing in Elidar Woreda in Afar.

Early livestock migration from Yallo, Berhale, Erebti, and Sumurobi Woredas of Afar Region started to adjacent highland areas in Amhara and Tigray Regions. In the northeastern part of Afar, milk production is less than in previous years as are herd sizes.

The 2013 Karma/Karan crop production was below average in most agropastoral and sedentary farming areas. In agropastoral areas of Abala, Dalul, Kuneba, and Berhale Woredas in Kilbati Zone in Afar Region, crop losses were reported. Changes in river course of Awash River has affected crop production in Gewane, Afambo, and Asaita Woredas in Afar. A normal Karan maize, wheat, and barley harvest was obtained in Fafan Zone in Somali from October to December.

In general, grain prices, especially of sorghum, have increased over the past six months due to supply constraints. On the other hand, goat and sheep prices declined, seasonally, since October after the end of the export period and due to a growing number of livestock on the market.  As a result, the terms of trade between livestock and cereals have declined.

Since August 2013, malnutrition has declined in northwestern and southern Afar and Sitti and Fafan Zones. November OTP admission in Fafan and Sitti Zones of Somali Region were 10 percent below August. November 2013 OTP admission were 60 and 23 percent less than last year in Fafan and Sitti Zones, respectively. With generally improved conditions, but still low holdings of livestock and slow recovery, most households are Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Only in Dalul, Berhale, Erebti, Afedera, Elidar, Bidu, and Kurri Woredas in northeastern Afar where both rainy seasons in 2013 were poor, are households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Assumptions

In addition to the national assumptions, the projected food security outcomes for Afar and northern Somali Region are based on the following assumption:

• With the anticipated below normal performance of the 2014 March to May rains in the northeastern parts of Afar, livestock market prices are expected to further decline due poor body conditions and distress sales.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

With some forage and water available currently, the anticipated normal March to May Diraac/Sugum will further maintain these resources. Average livestock body conditions and productivity should be maintained through June in southern Afar and Fafan and Sitti Zones in Somali. Households will get food through their own production of milk, and market purchases funded by livestock sales, livestock products sales, firewood sales, petty trading, and herding labor for better off households.  Cereal prices are expected to decrease as soon as PSNP food aid transfer commence in January. However, high cereal prices and the reduction in herd size due to a recurrent drought in these areas will not enable households to address of their non-food needs due to the slow pace of their herds recovery. They are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through at least June.

Households, in the northeastern part of Afar Region where the last two consecutive rainy seasons were much drier are also expecting a below normal March to May Sugum rainfall. Poor and very poor households in Dalul, Berhale, Erebti, Afedera, Elidar, Bidu, and Kurri Woredas in Afar Region are likely to continue to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) having to continue to sell off additional livestock at an accelerated rate to purchase food.

Table 1: Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario.