Food security likely to deteriorate in Afar and southern Somali

• In southern and central Afar, the anticipated below normal July to September rains likely to lead to low livestock productivity and higher food prices. The southern and southeastern pastoral areas bordering Kenya and Somalia had well below average March to May Gu rains. These areas will likely move from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) only with the presence humanitarian assistance between July and September.
• Due to improved income from different sources, stable food prices, and the start of green maize consumption, food security improved in ginger-growing areas in Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR). Food security in these areas improved from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in June and with the anticipated average Belg harvest food security is expected to further improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from July to September.

• Cumulative March to May Belg rains were average to above average in amount. This allowed mostly normal development of Belg crops in northeastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and eastern Oromia. Even in East Hararghe where the crops were planted late due to the delayed onset of the rains, crops have developed mostly normally. Belg crops are mostly in the late vegetative stage and in various growth stages. With normal rain and soil moisture in May, additional area was planted under long-cycle crops for harvest starting from October. Long-cycle crops have been planted in East and West Hararghe Zones in Oromia Region, but only about five to 10 percent of the normal area planted is complete in Amhara. May rains continued to increase the availability of pasture and water for livestock in many parts of Amhara, Tigray, and eastern Oromia. The nutrition situation is stable in most of these areas, but in Meyu Muluke Woreda in East Hararghe in Oromia, an ad-hoc nutrition survey conducted in March 2014 showed 12.3 percent (95 percent confidence interval (CI) of 9.6 to 15.6 percent) global acute malnutrition (GAM) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) of 1.6 percent (CI 0.7 to 3.3). The unusually high malnutrition was likely the result of conflict that occurred last year, leading to a smaller harvest in that area.
• Unlike most areas, there was below-average May rainfall in some parts of East and West Haraghe, mostof East Shewa, and most of West Arsi Zone in Oromia Region. The moisture stress in these areas retarded the growth of crops. Forage availability has declined. The poor forage availability is reported to be most severe in Jeju, Limu Bilbilo, and Diksis Woredas in Arsi Zone, which resulted in the reported death of about 10,000 livestock in April and May, mainly cattle and sheep.
• Currently, most Belg crops in Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR) are at the flowering stage. Some maize, haricot beans, and potatoes are at the ripening stage, and green consumption has started. This particularly helped the poorer households in ginger-growing areas in Hadero Tunto, Kacha Bira, and Tambaro Woredas in Kambata Tambaro Zone by providing a source of food and, in some cases, labor income. Coffee completed all the three rounds of flowering. Seed-setting started in Gedio and Sidama Zones. Planting of long-cycle Meher crops has been completed with more than 90 percent of the normal coverage by the end of May in Gurage and Silite Zones and Halaba Woreda. Overall, crops are performing normally. However, crops on 2,660 hectares (ha) of land in East and West Badawacho, Gombora, Boloso Sore, and Kacha Bira Woredas were damaged by hailstorms in April. Water points have been refilled and pasture regenerated in most areas. Livestock body conditions, production, and productivity improved. Though the number admission of malnourished children to the Therapeutic Feeding Program (TFP) increased from March to April by 11 percent with 83 percent of clinics reporting, this is still 10 percent lower than April last year. The start of green consumption, Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP) resources, and targeted supplementary feeding (TSF) for poorer households have all helped contribute to a better nutrition situation than last year.

• Southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas: Despite late onset, erratic distribution, and long dry spells, the cumulative Gu 2014 rains was near average in Jarar (formerly Deghabur) and Nogob (formerly Fik) Zones, northern parts of Elkare Woreda in Afder Zone, Shekosh and Kabridahar in Korahe Zone, lowlands in Bale Zone in Oromia Region, and lowland, pastoral areas in South Omo Zone in SNNPR. However, pasture and water availability in most of the southern areas along the Kenyan border in southern Somali, Oromia, and SNNPR has declined. Most livestock from these areas were migrated earlier than usual, and they are concentrated in areas where pasture and water availability are relatively better.
• The average March to May Sugum/Diraac rains in southern, central, and western parts of Afar and northern parts of Somali Region helped increase pasture, browse, and water availability, which improved livestock body conditions, production, and productivity. However, in Awsi (formerly Zone 1) and Kilbati (formerly Zone 2) in Afar Region, both the July to September 2013 Karma rains and the March to May 2014 Sugum rains were well below average. As a result, pasture, browse, and water availability have not recovered to typical wet season levels since June 2013. Abnormal livestock migration already started towards the foothills in Amhara and Tigray. With less access to milk, nutrition, particularly for children, has further deteriorated. For instance, a nutrition survey conducted in April in Afedera Woreda in Awsi Zone reported 20.7 (CI 17.8 to 26.2) percent GAM and 3.9 (CI 2.6 to 6.0) percent SAM prevalence. These prevalences are higher than what has been typical in Afar since around 2002.
• Wind storm and flash floods in April and May resulted from heavy rainfall in highland areas of Tigray Region caused deaths for more than 2,000 livestock in Erebti, Abala and Andergolo Kebeles in Erebti Woreda in Kilbati (formerly Zone 2) in Afar Region.
• Food markets: Staple food prices in May remained stable in most markets in Amhara, Tigray, Oromia, and SNNPR. The start of green harvest of maize, haricot bean, and potatoes in SNNPR contributed to stable prices there. On the other hand, due to the seasonal decline in supply and a lack of food aid distributions in May, cereal prices rose in southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas. For instance, compared to prices in April, the price of sorghum increased from April to May by 20, 50, 33, and 13 percent in Cherati, Degehabour, Fik, and Filtu, respectively.
• Labor markets: Labor rates remained stable between April and May in Amhara, Tigray, and eastern Oromia Regions. The availability of labor opportunities and wage rates seasonally increased a bit from May to June in SNNPR due to increased demand for the start of the potato harvest and the planting of pepper seedlings. The highest increase was reported in Halaba Woreda where the daily rate increased from ETB 35 in April to ETB 50 in May, the peak period of labor demand for transplanting pepper seedlings.

The current situation has not affected most of the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for April to September 2014 and the updated assumption given provided the May Food Security Outlook Update. However, one assumption has been modified:

• In April, it was assumed that June to September Kiremt/Karma/Karen rainfall would be of near normal cumulative amounts in all areas. However, the National Meteorology Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia and other regional and global forecasts now suggest that normal to below normal cumulative rainfall is likely in the Northeast, including eastern Tigray, eastern Amhara, northern Somali, and all of Afar.

• Southern areas along the Kenyan border in the southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas in southern Somali, Oromia, and SNNPR: Household income from livestock and milk sales is expected to decrease more than seasonally typical during the June to September long dry season. Early livestock migration and declining livestock productivity will reduce households’ access to milk or associated income. Moreover, the anticipated increase in cereal prices due to seasonally low supply and declining livestock prices due to poor livestock body conditions will continue to limit food access. Poor households in these areas will likely move from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) currently to Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) with the continued presence of humanitarian assistance from July to September 2014.
• Southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas in southern Somali, Oromia, and SNNPR: With continued income from livestock and milk sales, most central and northern areas will maintain their income through September. However, low herd sizes do not allow poor and very poor households to receive enough income from livestock sales and livestock product sales to cover their food needs, their essential non-food needs, and essential expenses to protect their livelihoods. Therefore, most areas will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
• Afar and northern Somali Region: During the June dry and hot Hagaa season, a more than seasonal decline of pasture, browse, and water availability is expected. This will be followed by less regeneration than usual during the likely below average July to September 2014 Karma/Karan rains. By August, pasture and browse may be very difficult to locate, which is expected to bring unusual and widespread livestock migration. Livestock body conditions will likely also deteriorate. Livestock prices are anticipated to decline due to the expected decline in livestock body conditions, decreasing household income. Therefore, poor households in these areas will likely move from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in June to Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) with the continued presence of humanitarian assistance from July to September 2014.
• Northeastern Afar: Below-average July to September Karma rains in Awsi (formerly Zone 1) and Kilbati (formerly Zone 2) will not be sufficient to fully regenerate pasture and browse and refill all water points. After August, the dry season will cause the availability resources to further decrease. Households are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through at least September.
• Belg-producing areas in eastern Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia: The average Belg production in these areas is expected to increase household food access. Moreover, the availability of the Belg harvest to the markets is expected at least to stabilize cereal prices in Belg-producing areas in northeastern Amhara, southern Tigray, and Eastern Oromia. Poor and very poor households will be able to address their minimal food needs from own production and purchases. Therefore the food insecurity in these areas will improve from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in July to September.
• In the Meher-dominant, eastern, marginal areas in eastern Oromia, Tigray, and Amhara Regions, poor households will likely be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from July to September. While household income from labor during July to September is expected to seasonally increase in central and eastern Oromia, it is likely to be below normal due to the anticipated below-average Kiremt rains leading to less agricultural production in northeastern Amhara and Tigray. Moreover, poorer households in northeastern Tigray and in the Tekeze River catchment and lowland areas of East and West Hararghe Zones in Oromia Region exhausted their stocks from the below average 2013 Meher production in April. Therefore, poor and very poor households in northeastern Tigray and in the Tekeze River catchment will continue to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from July to September 2014 and beyond.
• SNNPR: The expected near average Belg production in July will improve food availability for households and increase the supply in local markets, helping stabilize food prices from July to September. Income from labor is likely to seasonally increase from labor demand for the Belg harvest and Meher planting in July and beyond. With anticipated normal amounts of Kiremt rainfall, livestock production and productivity are also likely to seasonally increase. Accordingly, households are able to meet their minimum food needs and therefore likely to improve from Stressed (IPC Phase2) to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in most areas from July onwards.