Ethiopia
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- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes are widespread across southern, southeastern, and some areas of eastern Ethiopia due to a combination of below-average precipitation, extreme heat, and limited recovery from the 2020-2023 drought. Poor pastoral households in the pastoral south and southeast continue to face severe constraints in rebuilding herds, while a territorial-political dispute along the Borena-Somali border displaced nearly 300,000 people in July and continues to restrict mobility for people and livestock. In East and West Hararghe zones, similar stressors on production and income are emerging: Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in East Hararghe lowlands by early 2026 following poor kiremt rainfall and significant meher crop loss, while West Hararghe will likely remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
- The October to December deyr/hageya rains are critical for pasture and water regeneration across the pastoral south and southeast, yet the 2025 season has largely failed, with almost no rainfall recorded since late October. Many areas have received only 30 percent of average rainfall, and parts of southern Liben and Afder are experiencing one of the driest seasons on record. Extreme temperatures – roughly 5°F above average in areas already with typical seasonal highs of around 100°F – are further accelerating moisture loss and driving vegetation stress. Several locations have experienced the highest temperatures on record. Eastern agropastoral areas, including East and West Hararghe, are also of high concern, as they experienced irregular and below-average June to August kiremt rainfall, sharply reducing crop performance.
- Across the south and southeast, the combination of failed rains and severe heat is rapidly desiccating pasture and water points. Vegetation conditions are less than 60 percent below average, notably in the Afder and Liban Zones of Somali Region. As pasture quality and water access declines, livestock body conditions, reproduction, and milk availability are expected to deteriorate sharply. Pastoral households that recently incorporated small-scale crop production to mitigate drought impacts are likely to experience failed or near-failed harvests due to heat stress and insufficient moisture. Meanwhile, in East and West Hararghe zones in eastern Ethiopia, irregular rainfall patterns delayed crop development, forcing many farmers to replant two to three times and sell livestock assets or borrow cash from neighbors and family. More than 40 percent of planted crops were lost, based on zonal information. Meanwhile, watering areas have dried up early, leading to atypical livestock migration.
- Across all affected areas, poor households are expected to increasingly engage in distress livestock sales, resort to long-distance migration, and rely on community support. Mobility constraints linked to conflict will further limit access to key dry-season grazing areas. As households reduce meal size and frequency, rely on credit, and prioritize feeding children, acute malnutrition – especially among young children – is expected to rise. In East Hararghe, households are likely to exhaust meher stocks by late 2025 and face declining purchasing power as staple prices rise.
Figure 1
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 2
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 3
Source: UCSB/CHC
Figure 4
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Ethiopia FEWS NET Analysis Note November 2025: Impacts of Dry Conditions on Food Security in Ethiopia, October 2025 - May 2026, 2025.
An analysis note is a FEWS NET product that provides targeted information on food security-related issues across FEWS NET geographies.